Saturday, May 31, 2014

Uranium Energy Soars On Hype: Danger Of A Significant Pullback - Uranium Energy Corp (NYSEMKT:UEC) | Seeking Alpha

Uranium Energy Soars On Hype: Danger Of A Significant Pullback - Uranium Energy Corp (NYSEMKT:UEC) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an interesting article about UEC.  I have followed the company for years, and I have also been an investor in the past.  I would not put any money on the company until they actually start producing.  URZ is another uranium company that is actually producing, and it is one of the few uranium companies that I trust. The problem with all uranium companies right now is that we have plenty of uranium in 2014.  It may be years before the demand will pick up enough to make uranium companies worthwhile.  Just keep your positions small if you want to speculate on uranium.


A Shocking U.S. Energy Dependency...but it's Not Oil

A Shocking U.S. Energy Dependency...but it's Not Oil



This is a link to HotStocked.com where this particular article is about a uranium stock that is being pumped.  Eventually, the U.S. will need more uranium, but it won't be tomorrow or next month.  It could be years before we fall short on our uranium supply.

So, HotStocked.com can advise you about which penny stocks are worthless and dangerous.  It is a good website to visit for finding out who the losers are.  For example, the website discusses bad marijuana stocks also in the Message Board section.  Don't buy any penny stock until you have checked the information at HotStocked.



Bonds: Should Stock Investors Be Concerned? | Seeking Alpha

Bonds: Should Stock Investors Be Concerned? | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another great article about the stock market.  This article is about owning stocks and bonds at the same time while making a profit on both of them.  I agree with Chris, and that is how my portfolio is allocated.  I own growth stocks, dividend stocks, and bond stocks.



Chris showed some very good bar graphs about owning bonds and stocks at the same time.  He also presented charts to back up his ideas.  Moreover, he emphasized what he has often said that we should pay attention to what "is" happening in the stock market rather than what "might" happen.  We need to have our portfolios set up to make money in a variety of scenarios.

 

Bull Market Continues, But Will Cash Be Summertime King? | Seeking Alpha

Bull Market Continues, But Will Cash Be Summertime King? | Seeking Alpha



Sy Harding has written an excellent article comparing 2014 to what we experienced in 2011 in the stock market.  I agree with Sy 100%, and that is why I have become primarily defensive in stocks as I have mentioned in other blog articles.  As the old saying goes, "The devil is in the details", and the market could continue to go up because Fed statistics still back an improving economy.  However, it would be prudent to have some large positions in bond ETFs like TLT and TMF, and your other stock positions should only be the safest stocks.




Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth - Xplore Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:XPLR) | Seeking Alpha

Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth - Xplore Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:XPLR) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article about Xplore Technolgies (XPLR).  This is one of the few stocks that might be able to grow while the rest of the stock market is approaching a top and near zero gains.  The author presented a great list of Xplore customers along with excellent future opportunities for the company.  I have recently been loading up on bonds and defensive stocks, but Xplore is one company that I may soon buy to buck the trend.


Halloween In June | Seeking Alpha

Halloween In June | Seeking Alpha



This is a good article which discusses bearish trends in the stock market.  David Tepper has reduced his long positions from 100% several months ago to 60% now.  I agree with David.  I have increased my bond positions and I plan to buy the super staples ETF stock FXG on Monday.



The author also presented charts of XLY (discretionary) versus XLP (staples) and XLF (financials) versus XLU (utilities).  Staples and utilities have both gained in 2014.  So, we have a sector rotation scenario where you can still make money in stocks if you invest in the right places.



Next, the writer presented a yield curve chart which shows rate spreads are getting compressed, and people are favoring TLT, the long bond ETF, over IEF, the 10-year bond ETF.  The 50-day line of IEF:TLT did a death cross around the 1st of March, and May shows a high volume capitulation.  Click on the chart below to expand it.




Friday, May 30, 2014

The Bears Are Seeing Red In A Sea Of Green | Seeking Alpha

The Bears Are Seeing Red In A Sea Of Green | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very interesting article supporting the bull case for stocks. The author uses the Philly Fed States Leading Economic Indicators report as one of his main arguments.  This report looks out six months in advance, and this is one of the economic indicators that I follow.  I have a Philly Fed link at my main website, Fibonacci-Stocks.com.   



A second point that the author presented was the advance/decline line for the S&P 1500 index which covers 92% of stocks.  The A/D line is going up along with the stock market.  He states that the A/D line peaks before the stock market top, and we will be able to exit before the crowd if we are paying attention.  In summary, this is a time period when you should own both stocks and bonds because we don't know exactly how far we are from the top.


Apple: Something Extraordinary Is Certain - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha

Apple: Something Extraordinary Is Certain - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha



This is a great article that talks about Apple's past and the company's possible future.  The author mentioned that Apple fell from over $700 per share in 2012 to slightly below $400 last year.  You could have made more than 50% for your money if you had bought Apple at $400 since today's closing price was $633.  The reasons for the decline were lower margins and lack of innovation.  However, Tim Cook has now had time to prove he is worthy as Steve Job's successor.



Another adviser that I listened to said that he told people to buy Apple when the company's PE dropped to 10.  Those people who followed his advice made a super profit.  So, this is a possible good buying point if Apple ever sells off in a big way again.  I bought Apple today although I was late to the party.  I have owned shares several times in the past.  After Tim Cook's performance, though, I will be very reluctant to sell Apple in the future.  If I do take a profit at some point, I still intend to hold onto some shares to keep a close eye on what Apple is doing.  I don't want to be late to the party again!

  

On The Stock/Bond Conundrum | The Felder Report

On The Stock/Bond Conundrum | The Felder Report



Here is an outstanding article by Jesse Felder about how bonds and stocks interact.  As you probably know, bond yields have dropped dramatically.  This means that a lot of people are buying bonds instead of stocks, and the stock market is making new highs on low volume.  People are afraid of stocks.  Someday the last new high will be made and stocks will fall.



One of the advisers that Jesse quoted urged people to buy bonds when the yield is at 3% and sell bonds when the yield is at 2%.  That sounds like a good strategy to me.  TLT, the 20+ year treasury bond ETF, is soundly beating the whole stock market this year (VTI).  TMF, the 3x long bond ETF, has returned more than 20%.  I own TMF as my largest holding, and I'll probably hold it until the 10-year bond yield is around 2%.  Then, I'll repeat the cycle and buy again when the yield is at 3%.  I believe bonds will continue to beat stocks in 2014.


Plug Power: Don't Bet On Auto Fuel Cells - Plug Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Seeking Alpha

Plug Power: Don't Bet On Auto Fuel Cells - Plug Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article talking about why fuel cells for autos will probably never work on a large scale.  The article was written by an engineer who is very skilled at knowing how important efficiency and economics affect the outcome of products.  Fuel cell cars are a lot less efficient compared to electric cars, and there is also a huge infrastructure problem with using hydrogen.  So, we are better off not running after fuel cells for the next big thing.  The story will take to long to work out even if success finally arrives.


Thursday, May 29, 2014

Tiger Technologies - About Us

Tiger Technologies - About Us



Here is an excellent website that uses mathematics for stock market investing.  The site has some outstanding articles about how to analyze the market using math techniques that you probably never knew existed.  You could check the website weekly for new articles, or you could follow Tiger Technologies at SeekingAlpha.com.



For example, Tiger Tech published an article in April titled "3 Indicators Confirm a Shifting Tide in Equities."  The first indicator was autocorrelation.  2011, 2012, and 2013 had positive correlations while 2014 has a negative correlation which will reportedly result in negative returns.  Secondly, the Mu or median daily returns has been zero for 2014 while Mu was positive for 2009-2013.  Thirdly, if the current pattern continues, we can expect flat to negative returns in 2014 with a lot of volatility.


Looking At The Top

I believe we are slowly approaching the stock market top.  As I mentioned in my May 28 blog about Precision Drilling, I believe the gains in the broad market like the S&P 500 will get smaller and smaller as we get to the absolute top of the market.  Think about throwing a rock up in the air.  When the rock has almost reached its highest position, the speed of the rock will be very slow and will arrive at zero speed just before gravity pulls the rock back to earth.  I think the S&P will struggle to make just 10% this year, and it will be worse next year.

In view of the meager gains of the stock market in the next couple of years, I believe that only a few select stocks will make gains of 20% or more.  TMF, the 20+ years treasury bond bull 3x ETF, will be one of those super profitable stocks.  People will increasing buy more and more bonds because they know we are near the top in stocks.  Then, when bonds start paying more money than single-digit gaining stocks next year, there will be a great acceleration in bond buying, and stocks will begin their descent even if we don't have a recession.




Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Why Is It The Right Time To Buy Precision Drilling - Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE:PDS) | Seeking Alpha

Why Is It The Right Time To Buy Precision Drilling - Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE:PDS) | Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article about Precision Drilling (PDS).  I have liked the company for many years, and I have owned PDS at various times. After reading the author's article, I believe it is time to buy Precision Drilling again.  Even while the S&P 500 continues to climb higher, I believe the overall stock market advances will get smaller and smaller.  I believe PDS will beat the market in 2014, and I want to be invested in winning stocks.


Will There Be A Recession? The Stock Market's Offering Some Scary Clues | Seeking Alpha

Will There Be A Recession? The Stock Market's Offering Some Scary Clues | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article about why we need to be careful investing nowadays.  The author brought up the point of rotating stock sectors. Small caps and consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) are being abandoned in favor of consumer staples (XLP).  Secondly, people are buying bonds.  TLT, the 20+ year treasury bond has outperformed VTI, Total Market, by a long shot in 2014.  Thirdly, stock distribution is being done by institutions and individuals.  Down days are on higher volume than up days.  We need to re-arrange our portfolios to be defensive since we may indeed be at a stock market top.


The Case For Owning Treasuries - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) | Seeking Alpha

The Case For Owning Treasuries - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article in support for owning treasuries such as TLT in the overbought stock market that we currently have.  TLT is outperforming the market this year as the author demonstrated in a chart.  He also showed a Federal Reserve chart where the Fed's bond inventory continues to rise even while they are cutting back on purchases.  I agree with the author that bonds should be owned in 2014 in higher proportions than in past years.


Tuesday, May 27, 2014

The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) | Seeking Alpha

The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article by Fred Piard about a two-stock plan where you can make a safe 12% return each year, and you could have made 7% in the terrible bear year of 2008 when a lot of people were down more than 50%.  Plan B of Fred's article advised a person to hold DIA, the Dow 30, during March, April, November, and December.  These are the usual momentum months of the stock market.  Then, hold IEF, the 10-year bond ETF, during all of the other months.  This sounds like a good plan to me for at least part of your portfolio.  We are also entering a market top period when general stock markets gains will probably be meager compared to Fred's plan.

 

Monday, May 26, 2014

ONE-TWENTY TWO

ONE-TWENTY TWO



Here is Dr. Duru's blog website where he updates his T2108 market timing indicator.  While no indicator is perfect all the time, Dr. Duru has done a good job in refining T2108 so you can sell at overbought levels and later buy bargains when they are oversold.  I believe T2108 is a tool that should be a part of every investor's analysis of the stock market.  Dr. Duru was cautious in his May 21 update since T2108 and VIX were not giving clear signals.  I intend to use T2108 when trades are overwhelming in one direction or the other.  Then, I will quickly take profits when I have them.  If you take enough 5 and 10% profits throughout the year, you could possibly double your money every year if you are trading the right stocks.  I like UDOW long, but I don't yet have a favorite stock for shorting.  I am evaluating SQQQ and TMF for short conditions.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Nasdaq Negative Volume Index

!10VLIRNDX: Gallery View - StockCharts.com - Free Charts



This is a link to a 10% negative volume chart for the Nasdaq at StockCharts.com.  As of May 25, 2014, the 50 day line has been below the 200 day line since December.  In other words, you could have made money shorting the Nasdaq during at least some of the time since 2014 started.  SQQQ is a leveraged ETF you could use, but you should always take your profits when you have them.  The basic trend of the stock market is still slightly bullish, and that means you can only be short briefly for now.


Negative Volume Index (NVI) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

Negative Volume Index (NVI) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com



This is a link to StockCharts.com where they have a discussion about the Negative Volume Index (NVI) and how it relates to investing.  The NVI crossover compared to the S&P 500 would be useful for trading in a lot of cases. This incredible indicator would have kept you fully invested during many whipsaw periods during the past several years if you had been using a 255 day EMA crossover for the signal.  The NVI 255 day strategy is still working while people are being scared out of the stock market due to low volume and other factors.  So, NVI should be a very important tool in every investors tool kit.




Monitoring The Stock Market Top

Is Anticipation Investing Hurting Your Portfolio? | Seeking Alpha



Here is another outstanding article by Chris Ciovacco.  He underlines the fact that it is a fool's errand to predict exactly what the stock market will do next.  The S&P is confounding a lot of people by making new highs.  A diversified portfolio and strict allocations in different areas will protect you in a market with weak directions.  I hold more than 15% of my portfolio in high paying dividend stocks.  I am getting paid during all the stock market turns.



However, there are certain signs that can approximate a crystal ball in predicting the stock market direction to some extent.  One of these signs that Chris mentioned was the S&P 500 long compared to the S&P 500 short (SH).  If this chart is going up, then your main bias in the stock market should be long.  When the chart is going down, you can probably make money shorting stocks, but you must take profits when you have them.  For example, you should have some predefined point where you will lock in your profits, like 10% if the trading cycle is short.


Recent Changes At The Margin Suggest Bulls May Be Gaining Ground | Seeking Alpha

Recent Changes At The Margin Suggest Bulls May Be Gaining Ground | Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article comparing investing to playing poker. When stock market signals are conflicting, this corresponds to a weak poker hand.  You should be cautious in this case.  The author presented several outstanding indicators which tell whether or not a bear market is about to start.  He mentions Philly Fed and Chicago Fed statistics which show that we are not in economic trouble.  The TED spread was also discussed, and we are okay there.  The YEN carry trade going down was one of the few strong cards for the bears. Margin levels going down was another strong card for the bears.  The bulls have a slight edge for now, but we still need to be cautious in the stock market.


Saturday, May 24, 2014

TMF ETF Guide | Stock Quote, Holdings, Fact Sheet and More

TMF ETF Guide | Stock Quote, Holdings, Fact Sheet and More



Here is one of the best performing stocks of 2014.  It is TMF, a triple leveraged fund for the government 20+ year treasury bond.  TLT is the most popular ETF that follows the long U.S. bond, and I have held TLT a number of times in the past.  However, TLT has not done very well in our indecisive stock market while TMF has gained more than 25% this year.  This is a great gain for a flat year, and I plan to buy TMF the next time the market opens because 2014 will probably continue to be flat in the future while I can get a double-digit gain with TMF.


ETF Database: The Original & Comprehensive Guide to ETFs

ETF Database: The Original & Comprehensive Guide to ETFs



This is an excellent website for research about ETFs.  You could find the best performing ETFs year-to-date, you could perform stock screening, and you could get information on many types of ETFs. You can browse by ticker symbols, and you can find the best-paying dividend ETFs.  The website is well organized so that you can quickly find information.  I highly recommend ETF Database.


3 Opportunities To Grab Before The Great Market Crash Ahead | Seeking Alpha

3 Opportunities To Grab Before The Great Market Crash Ahead | Seeking Alpha



Here is an interesting article by Harry Dent who is one of the best known bears in America.  I do not say that lightly because eventually the bears will be right.  Mr. Dent has some good ideas for when we finally do get a significant crash.  Cash is one allocation that Harry recommends, and I agree because after a 50% market correction, the cash will essentially be worth double for buying stocks.



Secondly, I agree with Mr. Dent that the U.S. dollar will rise in a bear market.  We still have the best currency in the world in spite of problems with it.  Also, in a stock market crash, it will take less dollars to buy the same amount of goods.  This will increase the value of the dollar ultimately.  UUP is the standard dollar bull ETF while UUPT is a triple dollar leveraged fund.  So, we need to be ready for action when trouble comes our way.


Ukraine Crisis: The End-Game Is Set | Seeking Alpha

Ukraine Crisis: The End-Game Is Set | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about Ukraine.  The situation there will be a non-event when it comes to the U.S. stock market.  RSX is the stock that will gain from this overblown crisis.  This article was one of the best I have seen concerning the inner workings of Ukraine and future prospects.


NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53 | Seeking Alpha

NYSE Margin Debt Dips In April For Second Consecutive Month: Risk Rank At No. 53 | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about how margin debt levels can predict which direction the stock market will probably move.  It is not a perfect indicator, but it is still worthwhile to consider.  For example, we now have a bearish decline indication since the margin debt is falling.  This indication along with a consolidation pattern on the S&P 500 chart causes me to lean toward a market correction in the near future.  The problem is knowing the exact time.  Currently, I have both long and short positions, and I will take profits whenever a long or short position moves enough to make a gain.


I'm emailing a girl in Kaluga, Russia. She has my full name & phone number.?

I'm emailing a girl in Kaluga, Russia. She has my full name & phone number.?



Here is another Yahoo Answers article with additional comments about possible dating scams.  Unfortunately, it is virtually impossible to tell whether the other person is really seeking romance or if she is trying to scam you.  One way to find out more is to do a Google "image search" of the person.  One Russian lady tried to tell me she did not have a cellphone.  An image search found dozens of pictures of this woman, and one of them was a picture of her with a cellphone in her hand.  Other pictures revealed that she had a son, and she had previously told me she had no children.  Scammers can also do a lot of damage with your personal information even if you don't send them any money.

Why do people ask you for your full name,address and phone number in scam emails?

Why do people ask you for your full name,address and phone number in scam emails?



This is a very good article about scams where people ask you for personal information.  The main danger here is that the person could steal your identity with the information.  A second real threat is that they can use your phone number and sign up for things that cost money with your name.  For example, dating sites can bill your phone number if you don't read the fine print about functions that dating sites offer.  Someone who has your phone number, name, and address could do the same thing.  Also, they could call you and pretend to be your bank and rip off your bank account with information you might give them.


Friday, May 23, 2014

Five Penny Stock Promoters Charged with Conducting Various Manipulation Schemes

Five Penny Stock Promoters Charged with Conducting Various Manipulation Schemes



This is a great article about how the SEC has busted several penny stock manipulation schemes.  The main stock discussed in this article is Urban AG (AQUM).  The CEO was involved with people to promote the stock falsely.  I once thought AQUM was legitimately trying to become a broadband company, but the CEO tried to manipulate the stock illegally to promote it.  So, stay away from AQUM as well as other penny stocks that the SEC is busting.


This rally is not built to last- MSN Money

This rally is not built to last- MSN Money



Here is an interesting article about how the S&P 500 continues to creep higher when there is probably no reason for it other than people constantly adding to their 401K portfolios and choosing stocks more than bonds.  The S&P 500 chart shows a narrow consolidation range that is built on low volume.  The author also presented a chart concerning the percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day average ($SPXA50R).  That stands at just 60% and it is in a downtrend.



In addition, bond yields are falling which means people are also heavily buying bonds while others are buying stocks.  The first quarter GDP is about to be revised to negative territory, market breadth of the advancing stocks of the NYSE is falling, and volatility is staying at record lows.  It would probably only take a little bit of bad news to send the stock market a lot lower.  I own a position in the Nasdaq leveraged short ETF, SQQQ, because I think we will have a correction soon.


Thursday, May 22, 2014

Continental Resources: Leading Energy Stocks To Replace Biotech This Year - Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) | Seeking Alpha

Continental Resources: Leading Energy Stocks To Replace Biotech This Year - Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) | Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article about Continental Resources (CLR).  I own the stock and plan to buy more in the future.  Continental is the largest leaseholder in the Bakken oil area of North Dakota and Montana.  In addition to this, they control an oil section of Oklahoma which reportedly has even more oil than the Bakken.  The company's oil production is expected to triple by 2017.  Moreover, the stock has gained 72% in the past 12 months, and double-digit gains will most likely continue.  I believe CLR is the number one stock an investor should own in a diversified portfolio.


Tuesday, May 20, 2014

David Tepper Increases Stake In These 2 Attractive Online Plays | Seeking Alpha

David Tepper Increases Stake In These 2 Attractive Online Plays | Seeking Alpha



Here is an excellent article by Bret Jensen about David Tepper's recent stock buying.  He bought Expedia (EXPE) and Google (GOOG). Both companies are still growing, and you may recall the mind-blowing growth of Priceline over the past eleven years since Expedia is in the travel industry also.  David Tepper is one of the greatest investors of this generation, and I follow his macro view of the stock market a lot.  I also agree with his two new buys.


Monday, May 19, 2014

ConocoPhillips: A Solid Long-Term Investment (COP) | Seeking Alpha

ConocoPhillips: A Solid Long-Term Investment (COP) | Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article about ConocoPhillips (COP).  I believe the oil company is a good investment in the current choppy stock market that we are experiencing.  You also get a nice dividend while you wait for COP to go 15% higher.


Market Correction Or Consolidation? | Seeking Alpha

Market Correction Or Consolidation? | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article by Cam Hui about how the stock market might consolidate during the summer instead of having a major pullback. You may recall that 2013 was a similar year where we had no significant drawback.  If Cam is right, you should be long on it least some stocks during a long and unpredictable summer.


Facebook : $85 Price Target Is Becoming More Realistic - Publicis Inks $500 Million Deal (FB) | Seeking Alpha

Facebook : $85 Price Target Is Becoming More Realistic - Publicis Inks $500 Million Deal (FB) | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about Facebook (FB).  The company has a lot going for it because of its recent purchases and its partnerships. From a chart standpoint, Facebook also looks like it is at a bottom. Now is the time to buy it for a 30% gain.


Sunday, May 18, 2014

L-CARNITINE: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD

L-CARNITINE: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  Today's link is for information about an amino acid called L-Carnitine.  It provides the body with energy, and it is very useful for congestive heart failure and leg circulation problems.  It also helps with chest pain and high cholesterol.  In addition, it improves chronic fatigue syndrome.

Guideposts Can Assist With Risk Management In Uncertain Market | Seeking Alpha

Guideposts Can Assist With Risk Management In Uncertain Market | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written a very good article about how to know when you should short the stock market.  He showed a chart comparing the S&P 500 long versus SH, the S&P 500 short.  You can view this relationship at www.stockcharts.com through the symbols SPY:SH.  If the S&P 500 falls below the 3-day and 5-day EMA lines, then it is time to short the market if other factors point to a short also.



Chris mentioned that if the S&P 500 falls through a flat 50-day average line, that is a market short signal as well.  The key is what kind of slope the 50-day line has when the S&P drops below it.  Another factor in shorting the market would be bad economic conditions. Currently, we don't have a problem here.  One other parameter would be global troubles.  We still have a problem with Russia over Ukraine's independence.  Overall, I doubt we will have a bear market in the short term, but we could have a significant pullback.


Saturday, May 17, 2014

Bonds Are Expensive, Stocks Are Expensive: The Long-Term Investor's Conundrum | Seeking Alpha

Bonds Are Expensive, Stocks Are Expensive: The Long-Term Investor's Conundrum | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article about where to invest your money in the near term as well as long term.  Based on several reliable indicators, the author believes the total return from investments over the next ten years is just a paltry 3.74%.  This gain only barely covers inflation. In contrast, the S&P 500 gained 7.3% from 2003 to 2013.  The future will certainly be different.  You also have to factor in a bear market at some point.  The best choice is to have some long stocks, some trading stocks (cash at times), and bond stocks.


Is A Stealth Bear Market Already In Motion? | Seeking Alpha

Is A Stealth Bear Market Already In Motion? | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another outstanding article about how to tell whether or not we are entering a bear market.  The solution is to monitor constantly what TLT (bonds) is doing compared to SPY (stocks).  You can look at this comparison TLT:SPY at www.stockcharts.com.  This chart shows the aggregate opinion of investors worldwide, and it is only when the wide opinion of investors turns bearish that we have to worry.



When the chart of TLT versus SPY turns up, it is time to buy bonds. When TLT versus SPY shows a downtrend, it is time to buy stocks. Chris gave a 2008 chart where TLT began turning up in July 2008 before the big stock market drop in the fall of 2008.  Then, conversely, he showed a 2009 chart where TLT broke its 50-day line and headed down in March of 2009.  This was the start of the current bull market which has lasted several years.  Currently, the general market is indecisive about stocks and bonds although the TLT chart 50-day line is sloping slightly upward.



Another point that Chris mentioned is that some sectors are clearly in downtrends compared to TLT.  These are tech stocks (QQQ), small cap stocks (IWM) and consumer discretionary companies (XLY).  Only the largest companies are holding up the stock market now.  Chris is maintaining a three-way mix between stocks (VTI), bonds (TLT), and cash.  No one can predict the future market direction.  We must be ready for anything.


10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries | Seeking Alpha

10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries | Seeking Alpha



This is another excellent article by Peter Way.  He talks about several stocks that have a very high probability of being profitable in three months or less.  Moreover, Peter said that holding all ten stocks on average under two months produced an annual return of more than 100%.  Betting on sure stocks is the way to make money in the stock market.



The secret is that you must take profits when you have them.  Many stocks will repeatedly go back down in today's market environment. Peter mentions that many bears are trolling investors today, and they are trying to get people to invest in meager yielding stocks to be safe. Nobody really knows when the next market downturn will occur, and people are losing a lot of potential money while trying to protect their assets.  Many months of time can be lost trying to be safe, and you can never get that time back.  A person only has so many years to accumulate money for retirement.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Welcome to Rodinia Lithium

Welcome to Rodinia Lithium



Here is the website link for Rodinia Lithium, a small cap lithium miner.  I own the stock myself, and I will probably buy more shares at various times.  Penny stocks like Rodinia can be volatile, and owning the stock should be with a long-term view since lithium is used extensively in electric cars, and electric car sales will be increasing exponentially in the future.  So, a lot more lithium will be needed. Rodinia may become one of those rare multi-bagger stocks in the next few years.


Thursday, May 15, 2014

Hedge fund mogul Tepper warns: Don't be too long U.S. stocks: Thomson Reuters Business News - MSN Money

Hedge fund mogul Tepper warns: Don't be too long U.S. stocks: Thomson Reuters Business News - MSN Money



This is a great article about how David Tepper is cautious about stocks now.  He did not say to short the market, but that we should not be too long on stocks.  I respect Tepper's opinions very much.  I recall when we were coming off the bottom of the 2009 stock market, perhaps in 2010 or 2011, that David was a big believer in stocks during a period of high volatility, and he was exactly right in his buying stance back then.  I believe he is correct now also that we should be cautious about stocks because the market is struggling too much to go higher.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Need A 'Steady Eddy' Income Source? (DNP) | Seeking Alpha

Need A 'Steady Eddy' Income Source? (DNP) | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about DNP, a closed-in fund which pays on a monthly basis in a very consistent manner.  The fund primarily invests in utilities, and it is currently outperforming XLU (a popular utility ETF) with a 7.75% annual dividend.  The expense ratio is higher than XLU, but the net dividend payments are still considerably higher for DNP.  This stock is definitely worth holding as part of a diversified portfolio.


The Case For Owning Treasuries (TLT) | Seeking Alpha

The Case For Owning Treasuries (TLT) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very good article about why owning bonds through TLT has been a good strategy this year.  The stock market will probably continue to rise gradually, but there is a big question as to how much higher stocks can go.  Bears are saying we are at a stock market top while the economy says everything is fine.  I agree with the author that bonds will do well in a slow-gaining stock market.


What Is Dow Theory Telling Us Now? | Seeking Alpha

What Is Dow Theory Telling Us Now? | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article by Chris Ciovacco explaining the Dow theory and how the Dow Jones Industrials, transportation stocks, and the economy are all tied together.  He makes a good point that the economy is nowhere near a recession.  As long as this is true, the stock market can slowly edge higher since people will always be putting their money to work somewhere.  However, there will be intermittent pullbacks for profit taking, bad global news, and other factors.  UDOW, a 3X Dow ETF, is a good stock to buy on pullbacks.


Are Lithium-Ion Batteries Becoming The Fuel Of The Future? (LIT) | Seeking Alpha

Are Lithium-Ion Batteries Becoming The Fuel Of The Future? (LIT) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article about investing in the lithium industry through LIT, the lithium ETF.  There is no question that electric cars are here to stay, and the batteries in the cars will require a lot of lithium.  LIT is the best way to invest in this space because many of the lithium companies are volatile in price movements, and others have under-performed the market at times.  LIT as well as the solar ETF, TAN, are good ways to invest in future technology without the hassle of individual companies being unpredictable in price movements.




Sunday, May 11, 2014

Earn A 9% Yield With This MLP ETF (YMLP) | Seeking Alpha

Earn A 9% Yield With This MLP ETF (YMLP) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an interesting article on YMLP, an MLP ETF that pays 9% annually.  When you subtract the .82 expense ratio and possible additional tax expenses, your actual gain will probably be around 8% depending on how shareholders are docked for fund expenses.  In spite of possible disadvantages, this is the highest paying MLP ETF that I know about, and it is probably a worthwhile investment as part of a diversified portfolio.


MORL Is Projected To Pay A Monthly Dividend In May Of $0.0679 Bringing The Yield To 22.2% (MORL) | Seeking Alpha

MORL Is Projected To Pay A Monthly Dividend In May Of $0.0679 Bringing The Yield To 22.2% (MORL) | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article on MORL, a monthly dividend ETN.  I own the stock, and I have been well satisfied with it.  The actual annual dividend amount depends on whether or not you reinvest the dividends.  I prefer to take the cash myself.  Anyway, the bottom line is that you can make between 17% to 22% from MORL, and this is beating the general stock market by a long shot.



The author goes into great detail about the varying monthly dividends of MORL since the underlying REITs pay at different times.  All of the individual companies held in MORL are also listed in the article along with their dividends.  The expense ratio of MORL is very reasonable, and you get super diversification with this ETN.  You don't have to worry about a single company having a bad quarter because most of the other companies will be doing well.


Thursday, May 8, 2014

Buckle Up! The New Bear Market Has Begun | Seeking Alpha

Buckle Up! The New Bear Market Has Begun | Seeking Alpha



This is an interesting article on why we might be at a stock market top.  It is certainly worth paying attention to how stocks are struggling now.  I am raising my cash position, and I will only use the cash in short term trading situations with the strongest stocks.


Sunday, May 4, 2014

5 Indispensable Retirement REITs [Realty Income Corp, Healthcare Trust Of America Inc, National Retail Properties, Inc., Retail Opportunity Investments Corp, Public Storage] - Seeking Alpha

5 Indispensable Retirement REITs [Realty Income Corp, Healthcare Trust Of America Inc, National Retail Properties, Inc., Retail Opportunity Investments Corp, Public Storage] - Seeking Alpha



This is a very interesting article about triple net real estate investment trusts.  These companies own property that they rent out, but the renters are responsible for taxes, insurance, and maintenance.  Hence, the term triple net means that the landlords are not responsible for anything except collecting the rent.  Realty Income, ticker symbol O, is my favorite company in this space.  The dividend is more than 5% annually, and you get paid monthly.


Saturday, May 3, 2014

Where Is The Market Headed Now? Leveraged ETFs Tell The Story - Seeking Alpha

Where Is The Market Headed Now? Leveraged ETFs Tell The Story - Seeking Alpha



Here is another excellent article by Peter Way about the best way to make money in the stock market.  You basically follow what the market makers are doing because they will make money more dependably than anyone else.  This reduces the risk of losses and improves the odds of winning trades.  UDOW, the 3X Dow ETF, is the best ETF to trade.  The Dow 30 stocks are the most widely held companies, and UDOW is the market makers favorite way to play future Dow moves.



The best time to buy UDOW is when it is near a bottom.  If the 200 day average is still sloping upward, the UDOW will eventually get off the bottom and head toward its former high price.  Even if it does not move at first, the longer you hold UDOW is the more certain your profit will be.  There is a near 100% chance the UDOW will reach its former high within 80 days or a much shorter time frame.  The summer will be a volatile time most likely, and this will be a good time to trade UDOW rather than going away in May!