Tuesday, October 1, 2019

When Negatives Really Matter To Stocks


The ten year old bull market does not want to die, and many investors have been gored by the bull.  However, sometimes multiple negatives can send the market crashing as the Dow lost 343 points on October 1, 2019.  Real impeachment talk, a PMI of 47.8 for manufacturing, and no resolution in the China trade lead to the bear chomping hard on the bull today.

I already held a significant position in TMF, the triple long bond ETF, but I am planning to buy more tomorrow.  People have been talking about a bond bust for years, but it has never happened, and it cannot happen while we have multiple serious negatives since people will always run for security in troubled times.  This is a winning trade although I will take profits at certain times.  I am following the MACD cycle primarily for this trade, and I will be buying as the signal line moves up.  Then, when I see it make a new high while the MACD starts to fall, I will sell while I am up.  Sometimes it can take months to get a good trade setup, but it is well worth trading when you have the chance.