The stock market fell hard after the election. Several reasons have been given for the downturn, but it probably will not last. For example, the looming budget crisis was one reason that pundits gave for falling stock prices. We had this same situation in August of 2011, and Congress eventually compromised. I believe Congress and the President will agree on a solution once again, and stocks will move higher.
We just completed an uptrend cycle that ran from July to October. Stocks have already pulled back almost to the 50% Fibonacci retracement for this trend. As long as the Federal Reserve is willing to prop up the economy, I believe buyers will soon look for bargains at the current level or slightly lower.
Another reason for a stock rebound is that the economy is still slowly recovering. Unemployment is staying about the same, manufacturing is not plunging, and home-building is looking up. So, it makes sense to keep some money in stocks for the usual fall and winter rally. You could also diversify into bond funds and get paid for waiting.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Fall Rally Stocks
The fall rally in stocks has started early this year since Ben Bernanke has implied QE3 is coming and Mario Draghi, the ECB president, has made good so far on his promise to save the euro. Since volatility is almost nothing, XIV has risen dramatically since it is the inverse VIX exchange traded fund. It is a good time to buy XIV because the fall rally will probably continue for a few more months at least.
Another good stock to own is Google (GOOG). The stock has increased more than 40% in the past year, and Google just keeps coming up with more ways to make money. It will probably be safe to own Google as long as the fall rally continues. Supposedly, the stock market is due for a fall in 2013. You could monitor Google to decipher when you should exit stocks. Just go to Yahoo Finance and look at the chart of Google. Then, add the 9 day and 50 day simple moving average technical lines to the chart. When the 9 day moving average line falls below the 50 day line, you should sell Google and play defensively in cash or TLT, the 20 year bond ETF. TLT will go up when stocks go down.
Another good stock to own is Google (GOOG). The stock has increased more than 40% in the past year, and Google just keeps coming up with more ways to make money. It will probably be safe to own Google as long as the fall rally continues. Supposedly, the stock market is due for a fall in 2013. You could monitor Google to decipher when you should exit stocks. Just go to Yahoo Finance and look at the chart of Google. Then, add the 9 day and 50 day simple moving average technical lines to the chart. When the 9 day moving average line falls below the 50 day line, you should sell Google and play defensively in cash or TLT, the 20 year bond ETF. TLT will go up when stocks go down.
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Two Stocks To Own For 100% Gain
The stock market doesn't know whether to go up or down right now. The news is not bad enough for a big downturn and not exciting enough for a real bull rally. Under these conditions, though, you can still make money on two stocks if you are patient.
The first stock to buy is NUGT, the triple gold miners ETF, whenever it is selling for less than $9 per share. It will typically be at that low point whenever the stock market in general has pulled back. Then, be certain to sell the stock whenever it reaches $13 per share for almost a 50% gain. NUGT will most likely reach $13 during several bull rallies over a year's time. If you just catch two of these cycles, you will make around 100% for your money.
A second stock that has predictable annual cycles is TLT, the 20 year treasury bond ETF. People and institutions will run to treasury bonds whenever they have no faith in the stock market. You could buy TLT for $110 per share when the stock market is at a winter high in March. Then, just calmly wait for a May selloff that will eventually run the price of TLT up to around $130. Sell TLT at that point for an 18% gain.
So, owning these two stocks at various times during the year will most likely net you more than 100% for your money if you are patient. You don't really have to be in the stock market all of the time to make money. Just be sure you are in the right stocks at the right time. Then, sit on you hands the rest of the year to make sure you don't lose the money you have gained.
The first stock to buy is NUGT, the triple gold miners ETF, whenever it is selling for less than $9 per share. It will typically be at that low point whenever the stock market in general has pulled back. Then, be certain to sell the stock whenever it reaches $13 per share for almost a 50% gain. NUGT will most likely reach $13 during several bull rallies over a year's time. If you just catch two of these cycles, you will make around 100% for your money.
A second stock that has predictable annual cycles is TLT, the 20 year treasury bond ETF. People and institutions will run to treasury bonds whenever they have no faith in the stock market. You could buy TLT for $110 per share when the stock market is at a winter high in March. Then, just calmly wait for a May selloff that will eventually run the price of TLT up to around $130. Sell TLT at that point for an 18% gain.
So, owning these two stocks at various times during the year will most likely net you more than 100% for your money if you are patient. You don't really have to be in the stock market all of the time to make money. Just be sure you are in the right stocks at the right time. Then, sit on you hands the rest of the year to make sure you don't lose the money you have gained.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Monthly Dividends With Capital Gains
One of the great things about investing is that you can own fairly safe stocks while getting a paycheck from those companies every month. One such company has the ticker symbol of O, Realty Income. They pay 4.3% annually in monthly installments, and the stock has grown by around 33% in the past year. Realty Income is one of the best companies in the world for getting superb dividends and capital gains at the same time.
Another amazing monthly payout company is TLT, Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund. TLT is part of the iShares group of fixed income, U.S. government stocks. The dividend is only 2.5% each year, but the stock has grown more than 20% in the past year. Gaining 20% or more each year is an investor's dream. Some people think we are in a bond bubble, but I believe TLT can continue to grow. The Federal Reserve has stated that interest rates will probably stay low for the next two years, and they are also actively buying U.S. bonds. We also have a lot of investors and institutions who prefer the safety of bonds, and they have no desire to own a lot of stocks.
Thus, buying O and TLT now may be one of the best things you have ever done. The stock market has lost a lot of steam lately, but good dividend stocks will continue to flourish. You will also get a bit of cheer every month when you see the payout from these two stocks in your investment account. Just be certain to sell the stocks if they drop 10% or more to protect your capital. You can always buy them back later.
Another amazing monthly payout company is TLT, Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund. TLT is part of the iShares group of fixed income, U.S. government stocks. The dividend is only 2.5% each year, but the stock has grown more than 20% in the past year. Gaining 20% or more each year is an investor's dream. Some people think we are in a bond bubble, but I believe TLT can continue to grow. The Federal Reserve has stated that interest rates will probably stay low for the next two years, and they are also actively buying U.S. bonds. We also have a lot of investors and institutions who prefer the safety of bonds, and they have no desire to own a lot of stocks.
Thus, buying O and TLT now may be one of the best things you have ever done. The stock market has lost a lot of steam lately, but good dividend stocks will continue to flourish. You will also get a bit of cheer every month when you see the payout from these two stocks in your investment account. Just be certain to sell the stocks if they drop 10% or more to protect your capital. You can always buy them back later.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Stock Market Timing
A lot of money can be made in the stock market if you learn how to time your trades with a high degree of accuracy. Unfortunately, good timing involves more than knowing how to read the charts. For example, we currently have a paradigm shift in oil supply. We are getting millions of barrels of oil from the Bakken area of North Dakota now as well as new oil in Texas. The Energy Information Administration has been reporting excess inventories of oil that never used to happen. This resulted in the price of oil dropping below $80 per barrel in the last part of June 2012. Moreover, the leveraged oil bear ETF called ERY rose significantly in June. So, the fundamentals are clearly in place for lower oil prices in the future. Don't buy ERY today based on the fundamentals, though, because the stock chart shows a clear downtrend in July. You will be buying at the wrong time.
Then, on top of tricky timing issues that can usually be resolved by due diligence, we have some situations that are beyond are our control. For example, last week, the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, declared that he would do whatever was necessary to preserve the euro. This caused a tremendous stock market rally including a rise in the price of oil in spite of excessive oil inventories. The oil price rises every time a central banker talks about more money to stimulate an ailing economy because it means that people will have more money to pay for oil. Thus, if you had been long on the oil bear stock, ERY, last week you would have lost money due to conditions beyond your control. The only solution here is to buy ERY at the lowest price on the chart, and be prepared to wait until the political empty promises get broken in the future.
Then, on top of tricky timing issues that can usually be resolved by due diligence, we have some situations that are beyond are our control. For example, last week, the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, declared that he would do whatever was necessary to preserve the euro. This caused a tremendous stock market rally including a rise in the price of oil in spite of excessive oil inventories. The oil price rises every time a central banker talks about more money to stimulate an ailing economy because it means that people will have more money to pay for oil. Thus, if you had been long on the oil bear stock, ERY, last week you would have lost money due to conditions beyond your control. The only solution here is to buy ERY at the lowest price on the chart, and be prepared to wait until the political empty promises get broken in the future.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Dividend ETF List .com
Dividend ETF List .com - Home- Dividend ETF List
The above link is a great website for getting information on dividend-paying ETFs. The list includes the dividend amount as well as the history of the ETF. There is also safety in holding these ETFs because they have multiple holdings. Thus, one stock of their holdings that may be declining would be offset by stocks that are doing well. It is also a great idea to hold dividend stocks in our uncertain stock market. You can be paid while you wait.
The above link is a great website for getting information on dividend-paying ETFs. The list includes the dividend amount as well as the history of the ETF. There is also safety in holding these ETFs because they have multiple holdings. Thus, one stock of their holdings that may be declining would be offset by stocks that are doing well. It is also a great idea to hold dividend stocks in our uncertain stock market. You can be paid while you wait.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Oil Has Found a Bottom at $83 Per Barrel
Unless we have a recession, oil has found a bottom at $83 per barrel. Take a look at the chart on the Money Velocity page of Fibonacci-Stocks.com to see the recent flat bottom of oil's price in the $80 range. The looming European embargo of oil from Iran has put a bottom under oil.
In this current scenario, ERX, a leveraged oil ETF, is the best way to make money. It is selling for $36 per share now, and it could go to more than $50 per share in the next couple of months. That would be a gain of almost 50%.
In this current scenario, ERX, a leveraged oil ETF, is the best way to make money. It is selling for $36 per share now, and it could go to more than $50 per share in the next couple of months. That would be a gain of almost 50%.
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