A Growing Black Cloud Over The Market | Seeking Alpha

A Growing Black Cloud Over The Market | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written a great article about how the high yield bond market as represented by HYG is intertwined with the stock market in general.  He mentioned specific oil companies that are involved with HYG, and he talked about how some of these companies have experienced a large downturn.  Moreover, Eric discussed how the stock market could be eventually pulled down by the tanking of the oil sector.



My best performing stock right now is TMF, the 3x long treasury bond ETF.  It goes up when the market goes down because people will rush to safety in government bonds.  I think the downturn is just temporary, though, because the economy is okay currently.  The hard part will be picking an intermediate bottom from which stocks will rebound.  I will be monitoring $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, for a possible bottom around -60 or lower.  At that point, I will sell most of my TMF and go long on stocks like UDOW or MIDU.

   

U.S. Stocks Sink With Global Equities as Oil Rout Worsens

U.S. Stocks Sink With Global Equities as Oil Rout Worsens



The expected December rally probably won't come this year.  We are already in a 4% hole for December, and if a rally does occur this month, we will just get back to even.  The Dow lost 3.8% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.5%, and the S&P 100 (OEF) lost about the same.  Large cap stocks are no longer a safe haven.



We don't know yet how far the market will fall.  It could be another 9% decline like we had in October.  TMF and other treasury stocks are among the few current winners.  When the stock market finally finds the December bottom, I will probably be buying UDOW for the ride back up.  The economy is actually in good shape, and that is why I think the market will eventually recover.

iBillionaire – Investment Ideas from Wall Street Billionaires

iBillionaire – Investment Ideas from Wall Street Billionaires



Here is an excellent website where you can get acquainted with successful billionaire investors and some of their holdings.  The site lists the top 10 index holdings on one page along with a chart of how the billionaires are doing compared to the S&P 500.  The home page shows current billionaire winners and losers.  Another page gives a link to Direxion's website where you can learn about the billionaire ETF, IBLN.  You can't go wrong for long by following the billionaires although nobody will be right all of the time.   I intend to stay in touch with what the great investors are doing.

Overview of the Direxion iBillionaire Index ETF | Direxion

Overview of the Direxion iBillionaire Index ETF | Direxion



This is a website by Direxion where you can get information about billionaire investments.  They also have an ETF, IBLN, that you can buy so that you can be invested like the billionaires are doing.  They select 30 mid to large cap stocks to hold in the fund.  Each stock is equally weighted in the fund, and the choices are based on billionaire 13F filings.  IBLN is a great way to make money safely for at least part of your portfolio.

  

Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble | Seeking Alpha

Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article about oil company bargains that should be bought now or very soon.  All three of the oil companies mentioned will most likely gain double-digit returns in the next year even if oil stays below $80 per barrel.  I am buying RDS/A (Shell) tomorrow because of its great current price and because its recent dividend exceeds the junk bonds dividend rate.  So, you have almost certain capital gain along with a super dividend that is most likely safe.



The other two companies discussed in the article were HAL and EOG.  I agree 100% with the author that these two oil giants are great buys also.  I plan to buy both of them in the near future, but my cash has already been spent on other bargains this week.  HAL will rebound because fracking will continue as soon as the oil price swoon is over.  EOG will rise again because it is one of the biggest oil companies in the Bakken as well as Texas.  There is no way that these two companies will be held down for long.

AI Capable US Anti-Ship Missile Spooks Russia, Lavrov Vows To Retaliate - International Business Times

AI Capable US Anti-Ship Missile Spooks Russia, Lavrov Vows To Retaliate - International Business Times



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  Since the Russian support of Crimea and eastern Ukraine began this year, this situation has alarmed NATO, and both Russia and the West have been doing some muscle flexing.  Other articles have talked about advanced Russian aircraft.  This current article talks about counter defenses that the U.S. has deployed.   Certainly, we hope nothing will happen, but it is interesting to note that neither side has overwhelming dominance in everything.

Stocks in Turmoil as Fifth Hindenburg Omen Appears

Stocks in Turmoil as Fifth Hindenburg Omen Appears



This is another good article about how shaky the stock market has become.  China is not helping either since they are also subject to pullbacks.  The author did a good job to show the $NYA NYSE Composite Index and the $NYHILO NYSE new highs/lows index.  These charts show that we may be headed for another scary decline like we had in September and October of this year.  Once the bottom is known through a -60 to -90 indication on $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, you could make 10% or more riding the market back up through MIDU or UDOW.