Tuesday, August 18, 2015

This Market Shape Is More Telling than a "Death Cross" | Power Profit Trades

This Market Shape Is More Telling than a "Death Cross" | Power Profit Trades



This is a good article by Tom Gentile about how to interpret the current Dow and S&P 500 charts.  The death cross on the Dow has been much talked about as a negative stock market indicator.  However, Tom brought up a chart of a "symmetrical triangle" signal on the S&P 500 which is more positive than the Dow.  The triangle will eventually come to a point and market direction will break hard in one way or the other.  Tom seems to think stocks will rally higher because the ascending support line is longer than the lowering resistance line.

Monday, August 17, 2015

4 reasons stocks will move sideways until the end of 2015

4 reasons stocks will move sideways until the end of 2015



This is a great article about how Goldman Sachs believes we are in a sideways market, and it will remain that way for the next 5 to 12 months with not much improvement even going out to 2017.  The most dependable money will be made in good dividend stocks.   My favorite pick for dividends is PFF which pays around 6% annually in monthly installments.



However, a sideways market does not mean a down market.  Goldman Sachs does not see any economic trouble for the U.S. and the stock expansion could go on for several more years although at a slower pace.  I agree with them since interest rates are still low, and we are not anywhere close to a recession.


Saturday, August 15, 2015

Beware The Death Cross? | Seeking Alpha

Beware The Death Cross? | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written a very good article on the history of the Death Cross on stock indexes where the 50 day line falls below the 200 day line.  Eric believes that a lot of the decline has already happened by the time the death cross is triggered.  He also mentioned that this scenario is often a short term bottom for a stock market correction.



I think Eric is right that the current death cross is probably just a correction rather than the beginning of a bear market.  The economy is still doing okay and interest remains low.  Until interest on the 10-year bond gets to around 4% or the economy tanks, we should be invested in stocks.  Some of my favorite picks are PFF, AMBA, and REXX.

  

Level 2 Energy Fundamentals - inside perspectives on energy equities

Level 2 Energy Fundamentals - inside perspectives on energy equities



This is an excellent website to bookmark for the straight story on oil and gas.  As the old saying goes "the devil is in the details", and Level2Energy is able to uncover the bad details.  My previous blog provided a link to a great article from Level2Energy which explained why we cannot expect a near boom in the price of natural gas.



The situation in natural gas and oil is currently just a trade, and you must take your profit while you have it.  One stock that is worthwhile to buy and sell is Rex Energy (REXX).  The stock gained 14% alone on Friday going from $2.93 to $3.35, and I previously saw a $2 to $5 pattern earlier this year.  I own REXX, and I plan to buy it every time I see it in the $2 range.  Then, I will sell the stock when it goes over $5 because the volatility in oil and natural gas will probably be around for quite a while.

 

Midstream Energy MLPs and the Lack-of-Commodity-Price-Exposure Myth - Level 2 Energy Fundamentals

Midstream Energy MLPs and the Lack-of-Commodity-Price-Exposure Myth - Level 2 Energy Fundamentals



Here is an outstanding article about why MLPs are not as good as some people say and why the price of natural gas will remain low far longer than you can ever imagine.  As the author mentioned, pipeline oil and gas prices are not directly tied to commodity prices, but the "flow volumes" effect the income of pipeline companies.  So, if oil and gas companies cannot afford to pump from their wells, their transfer volumes will fall and hurt MLPs.



Secondly, the much hyped exporting of natural gas is taking way too long to unfold.  We need to apply "Murphy's Law" here that other things will go wrong.  In addition, the changeover of power plants from coal to natural gas is also taking a long time.  Hence, the demand and price for natural gas may remain low for quite some time.





Wednesday, August 12, 2015

A 10-Bagger Emerges | Seeking Alpha

A 10-Bagger Emerges | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article on 10-baggers that are hard to find during a stock market top.  The author raves about Netflix and how the company has plenty of room to grow in foreign countries.  I own NFLX myself, and I wish I had gotten in sooner.



Secondly, the article talks about the great prospects of Tesla, and the home batteries that are coming may be greater than the electric cars.  I own TSLA and plan to buy more.  Even if these stocks only grow 100% from the current prices, you will have market-beating stock picks.  I think these stocks are good investments along with a diversified portfolio which has dividend stocks like PFF, the preferred stock ETF which pays around 6% with a relatively stable stock price.




Stocks Mixed as 2008-Style Volatility Returns

Stocks Mixed as 2008-Style Volatility Returns



This is a very good article which discusses the fact that we appear to be at a stock market top.  However, the author summarized by implying it could be two years before stocks lose a third or more of the current value.  So, people can still make money for a while, but you need to have a quick exit plan when things turn really bad.  You can also hedge by owning long-term government bond stocks like TLT which is well-known and TMF which is a 3x long ETF for bonds.