10_YEAR Bond Charts - 10 Year Treasury Note Interactive Bond Charts - MarketWatch

10_YEAR Bond Charts - 10 Year Treasury Note Interactive Bond Charts - MarketWatch



Here is a chart of the 10-year treasury bond interest rate.  Notice that the rate is topping out at 3% and the bottom is around 2.5% now.  I don't know how long this pattern will last, but stock and bond trades can be made according to the chart's highs and lows.



For example, the last 3% rate high for the 10-year bond was at the start of 2014.  If you had bought the long-term bond ETF (20+ years), TMF, at the start of the year, you would have a double-digit return now.  Bonds tend to be bought when interest is high.  The higher yield makes them attractive compared to risky stocks.  



Another thing to note about the 10-year bond interest is that the rate will peak at stock market tops.  Interest was at 6% in the year 2000, and stocks died.  The Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates to slow down the economy.  The same scenario will probably happen again in the next two years or sooner when the Fed starts to raise rates.  You need to have a stock exit plan ready although you might be able to trade the intermediate cycle in the meantime.