The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets | Seeking Alpha

The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article on how the last two bear markets have been a series of gradual declines that turned into more than 50% downside to the final bottom.  He presented excellent charts to show how deceiving the gradual decline was.  We must have the discipline to take profits when we have them and cut our losses short with reasonable stop-loss orders.



No one knows the future for certain, but we can act on what we have seen before.  Lower highs and lower lows are definite bad signs.  The global unrest with Russia and sanctions on both sides is unprecedented since the Cold War ended.  Since the world is a global economy, how long will it take before companies have to lay people off because of less business?  I hold TLT, TMF, and cash in case the bull market turns into a bear, and I have already closed out some of my long positions that have not held up well lately.  We must have some kind of exit plan, or we will be cut in half again like we experienced in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.