TMF Trading Ideas

TMF is the 3x long government bond ETF, and the stock has made super gains over the past 14 months.  We have had global fears along with Federal Reserve uncertainty that have led people to buy bonds.  These conditions will probably continue in 2015, but TMF will be more volatile.  If you look at the chart below from Yahoo, you will be able to see fairly safe trading patterns for TMF.  You should sell when the price of TMF falls below the 20 day EMA.  You should buy when TMF has fallen below the 50 day SMA and the money flow is near zero.  Since the stock market can always have bad news and some people always run to bonds, this scenario makes TMF a reliable trade for several times each year.
Click on the chart to expand it.