Friday, February 28, 2014

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: When Is Tesla Going To $1000? [SolarCity Corp] - Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: When Is Tesla Going To $1000? [SolarCity Corp] - Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article with calculations and projections that Tesla (TSLA) will be worth $1,000 per share in 2020.  The article also states that the current value should be $279 per share in keeping with the projected success of Tesla.  That means today's price of $244 is a slight bargain but worth taking.  I own the stock, and I plan to buy more on any pullbacks if I have cash available.



Currently, Tesla is just one part of my diversified portfolio.  I have dividend stocks as well as a large position in TVIX, the leveraged volatility index.  TVIX is just a short term trade.  I recently made 37% when I bought and sold the stock during the 6% stock market drop earlier this year.  An investor needs to have a strict allocation strategy where certain funds stay in certain areas such as dividend stocks, long term growth stocks like Tesla, and short term trading like TVIX.  In other words, my market volatility money should stay in cash while I wait for the next TVIX cycle.  Future contributions to my 401K should go to long term stocks like Tesla. In this way, each section of your portfolio will be adding to your bottom line in various percent amounts.

There will always be a temptation to put all of your money in the part of your portfolio where you are making the most money, but never give in to this temptation!  For example, something could go wrong with Tesla if other car companies succeed in making a better electric car.  If only 10% of my money is on Tesla, and it falls 50%, I will have lost only 5% in my overall portfolio.  Strict diversification must always be followed to prevent financial disasters.


Thursday, February 27, 2014

Stocks Unquestionably Hesitant, But Is That Bearish? [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha

Stocks Unquestionably Hesitant, But Is That Bearish? [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha



Here is another very good article by Chris Ciovacco about why we are not in a 1929 crash situation currently.  Certainly, the stock market cannot seem to go much higher, but Chris made a good point that IWO small caps compared to the S&P 500 are staying strong.  The IWO versus S&P 500 chart of 2008 shows what real trouble looks like.  The 2008 chart shows a clear downtrend while the 2014 chart is positive.  Also, the recent Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) was just -.39 while a really bad economic figure would be -1.00 or greater.


Tesla lifts curtain on $5 billion 'gigafactory'- MSN Money

Tesla lifts curtain on $5 billion 'gigafactory'- MSN Money



This is an outstanding article about Tesla (TSLA).  The stock has nearly doubled in just three months, and people thought that it was overvalued back when it was 50% less.  Tesla is a great story stock that could turn into a fantastic dream like Priceline (PCLN) which went $5 per share after the dot.com bust to more than $1,300 per share today.  Another good stock is Western Lithium (WLCDF) which is rumored to be a possible future partner with Tesla.  I am a buyer of Tesla and Western Lithium.


Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Chatham Lodging Trust: I May Be Adding SALSA To This Hotel REIT That Pays Dividends Monthly - Seeking Alpha

Chatham Lodging Trust: I May Be Adding SALSA To This Hotel REIT That Pays Dividends Monthly - Seeking Alpha



Here is a good article about a hotel REIT that pays a 4% dividend in monthly installments.  I also like some of the hotel brands that they hold such as Hampton Inn and Courtyard by Marriott.  The stock had a 39% capital gain in 2013, too.  Chatham (CLTD) is probably a good stock to hold in a diversified portfolio.


Sunday, February 23, 2014

Stock Market Returns Cannot Exceed Intrinsic Value Growth Forever - Seeking Alpha

Stock Market Returns Cannot Exceed Intrinsic Value Growth Forever - Seeking Alpha



This is an interesting article by Grey Owl Capital.  If you take the long view over the last 14 years, aggregate bonds have outperformed stocks as well as being safer.  I am not saying we should exit stocks, but a substantial bond allocation should be part of a person's portfolio at all times.  Grey Owl is also correct that 2014 will most likely not be a repeat of 29% on the S&P 500.  The return for stocks will be less and less until the bull market rolls over and starts giving losses.  Thus, another part of your portfolio should be invested in shorting the market or betting on volatility with VXX or TVIX.  Around 10% of my portfolio is currently in TVIX because I believe stock market trouble could occur again just like the 6% pullback we recently experienced.  I made a 37% profit on TVIX then.  You must be certain to sell while you have a profit, though.




Saturday, February 22, 2014

The 2 Most Important Questions For Investors [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha

The 2 Most Important Questions For Investors [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha



This is another great article by Chris Ciovacco.  No one knows how the future of the stock market will turn out, but certain charts can give a reasonable direction for the market.  As Chris explains, the charts show what the aggregate opinion is for stocks advancing or declining.  In a bull market, the S&P 500 generally always stays above the 200-day moving average, and the slope of the 200-day line is upward.  The 50-day line is more volatile, but the slope of the line is going up most of the time.



Chris also presented tables to show the amount of money you would either make or keep if you correctly decipher the stock market's direction.  For example, he stated that the market rose 91% between 1997 and 2000.  If you had stayed in stocks during those three years, you would have almost doubled your money.  If you had stayed on the sidelines, you would not have gained anything significant for your retirement money.


Then, on the bear side, if you stay in the stock market when it is going down, you can easily lose more than 50% of your money.  If you have $50,000 saved up, your money would drop to less than $25,000. So, it is highly important to pay attention to the charts and buy either bullish or bearish stocks depending on the general market direction.

What happens if the S&P 500 or Dow drops below the 200-day line? How do you know if the market is still in bull mode or has changed to a bear market?  The first way is to look at the slope of the 200-day line as I mentioned above.  If it has not gone flat or down, you are safe, and it is a buying opportunity.  The second condition to check when the market is going down is the economic situation.  If the Federal Reserve still has positive economic numbers, then you need to stay in the market as long as the 200-day slope is upward.  By checking both the 200-day chart and the economic picture, you will not get whipsawed around on big stock market pullbacks.



  

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (QQQ) news: Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here - Seeking Alpha

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (QQQ) news: Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here - Seeking Alpha



Here is an interesting article about why the Nasdaq is in a bubble similar to the year 2000.  It remains to be seen how this scenario will play out, but caution is certainly warranted for stocks currently.  The Dow and Russell 2000 already have bearish charts as another author, David Moenning, pointed out.  Of course, the Nasdaq could continue higher, but I am keeping my eyes open for an exit door.


Daily State Of The Markets: Next Move: Blow-Off Or Blow Up? - Seeking Alpha

Daily State Of The Markets: Next Move: Blow-Off Or Blow Up? - Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article by David Moenning which illustrates that we are probably at a stock market top.  David presented a triple top S&P 500, Dow and Russell bear charts, and a lone Nasdaq chart that remains bullish.  It looks like the year 2000 all over again.  We definitely need to have our portfolios mostly in defensive stocks right now until we get more visibility about what might happen.



 

Kevin Wilde's Instablog - Seeking Alpha

Kevin Wilde's Instablog - Seeking Alpha



Here are three short articles by Kevin Wilde that underscore the reason why we should be both long and short in the stock market right now.  The most dramatic article is the first one where Kevin shows that our current stock market path is closely following the 1929 stock market crash.  He even includes March 2014 dates indicating where the Dow Index will be numerically if the 2014 chart pattern continues to follow the 1929 crash.  This is a situation that definitely needs to be monitored.


Financial Crisis Early Warning System [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (ETF), Market Vectors Indonesia Index Etf, iShares MSCI South Africa Index (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha

Financial Crisis Early Warning System [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (ETF), Market Vectors Indonesia Index Etf, iShares MSCI South Africa Index (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha



This is a great article by Eric Parnell about watching foreign bond markets for clues about when the U.S. stock market might have another pullback.  Since we now have a global economy, it does indeed matter if other nations default on their debts.  Think back to the stock market volatility of the past when Greece, Spain, and Italy were in the news about their debt problems.  Eric suggested monitoring two foreign bond funds, EMB and PCY, as an early warning signal for a decline in stocks.  When EMB and PCY go down in price, the S&P 500 will likely follow.


Friday, February 21, 2014

Stock Bears Have Made Little Headway Thus Far [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha

Stock Bears Have Made Little Headway Thus Far [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another excellent article about whether we should be in or out of the stock market.  I have both bullish and bearish positions just like Chris.  The author makes it plain, though, that the trend is presently bullish in spite of the general indexes not making new highs.  His exponential  moving average chart is great in presenting the bull case, and his XLP, staples, chart compared to the S&P 500 also says the same thing.  The biggest bear point that I can think of right now is the negative economic reading from the Philly Fed recently.  Usually, the nationwide ISM economic report follows whatever the Philly Fed does, and this means we are in for some more negative news probably in the next ten days.  So, the smart strategy is to hold both bull and bear positions and take profits when you have them.


BlackPearl Is A Compelling Low-Risk, High-Reward Story - Seeking Alpha

BlackPearl Is A Compelling Low-Risk, High-Reward Story - Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article about Black Pearl, a Canadian oil company.  The company is fundamentally sound, and its new and continuing projects clearly put it in multi-bagger status.  As the author mentioned, the technical chart aspects of the company are also good with a recent golden cross signal.  I plan to buy shares of the company on Monday, and I will be adding to my position at various times also.


Here's Why Intelligent Investors Are Avoiding Stocks Right Now | Jesse Felder

Here's Why Intelligent Investors Are Avoiding Stocks Right Now | Jesse Felder



This is a very good article along with charts by Jesse Felder about why we are probably at a stock market top.  The market may not fall hard right away in 2014, but we are probably in for at least a few times of volatility and draw-downs like we saw in January and the first part of February.  TVIX, the leveraged volatility ETF, is cheap whenever it is $7 or below, and it can easily spike to over $10 per share when the stock market just pulls back a mere 6%.


Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Wall St. falls after Fed minutes; Facebook drops late: Thomson Reuters Business News - MSN Money

Wall St. falls after Fed minutes; Facebook drops late: Thomson Reuters Business News - MSN Money



Here is an update on where the stock market might be headed in the immediate future and why.  Housing starts are down dramatically, and the economy's health depends on strong housing statistics.  The Federal Reserve is not offering much assurance in the face of a weakening economy.  So, there is not enough good news to send the stock market higher.  It may be an excellent time to load up on TVIX, the leveraged volatility index ETF.


Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors Ph.D.192 Lasers Deliver a Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough » Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors Ph.D.

Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors Ph.D.192 Lasers Deliver a Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough » Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors Ph.D.



This is an interesting article about the possibility of nuclear fusion being an energy source in the future.  The article discusses Einstein's theory of relativity and why a positive amount of energy can now be produced from a laser reaction.  The investing aspects of this discovery are a long way in the future, but it is something to keep in mind.

 

Monday, February 17, 2014

Stock Rally Near Probabilistic Sweet Spot [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha

Stock Rally Near Probabilistic Sweet Spot [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another great article about how to tell which way the stock market will probably go.  Currently, he is bullish along with me.  He presents some excellent charts of moving averages to prove his points about whether to be in or out of the stock market. He also dropped TLT and added SPY based on his bullish observations.


How 2014 Could Be Like 1929 [iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF), SPDR S&P China (ETF), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF), ProShares UltraSh FTSE/Xinhua China 25, Direxion Daily China Bull 3x Shares ETF, iShares MSCI China Index Fund] - Seeking Alpha

How 2014 Could Be Like 1929 [iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF), SPDR S&P China (ETF), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF), ProShares UltraSh FTSE/Xinhua China 25, Direxion Daily China Bull 3x Shares ETF, iShares MSCI China Index Fund] - Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article by Cam Hui about predicting the stock market future.  You basically need several charts to get a grip on what could actually happen next in the market, whether it is bullish or bearish.  Cam talks about two important charts to determine if you should be risk-on or risk-off.  Currently, we are not in any immediate danger.


Can the Rally in Biotechs Keep Its Momentum?

Can the Rally in Biotechs Keep Its Momentum?



Here is an excellent article about biotech stocks.  You can quickly get ahead or quickly go broke with drug stocks.  It is certainly a good idea to have at least one biotech company or biotech ETF in your portfolio, but it should not involve more than 5% of your money due to the great risk.  I wish I had watched Biogen (BIIB) over the years.  I can remember when it was less than $50 per share, and now it is over $300 per share.






Sunday, February 16, 2014

Twitter Share Unlock Could Cause A 20% Correction - Seeking Alpha

Twitter Share Unlock Could Cause A 20% Correction - Seeking Alpha



Alex Cho has written an outstanding article about the unlocking times for shares of Twitter.  I have been watching the stock, and I believe it will be a long-term winner like Facebook.  The big question is about how low the stock will fall as the unlocking of shares occurs.  Alex did a great service to us by listing the unlocking time table so that we can plan accordingly.



I plan to buy more shares when I think Twitter has fallen significantly. We might be able to use Facebook's pattern as an example.  FB lost 50% of its initial value when the unlocking started and even before then because of uncertainty about the stock's future.  Now, Facebook has fully recovered and is probably on its way to multi-bagger status. I also own FB.  Both of these companies are very useful to people, and I don't want to miss out on future gains.  I will probably be a buyer of Twitter anywhere in the low $40 range.


Molycorp Inc (MCP) news: Molycorp: Poised To Move Higher Still - Seeking Alpha

Molycorp Inc (MCP) news: Molycorp: Poised To Move Higher Still - Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article about Molycorp (MCP) by Jason Bond.  He believes the bottom has been established for rare earth elements, and Molycorp can go a lot higher from here.  I own shares of the company, and I agree with Jason.  The only question is high long it will take.  I plan to buy more shares as we get more visibility about rare earth pricing.  MCP could indeed be a double or triple from here in the next two years.


Friday, February 14, 2014

ProShares Trust II (BOIL) news: Natural Gas Prices At A BOIL, Market-Makers' Rest Of Year Outlook - Seeking Alpha

ProShares Trust II (BOIL) news: Natural Gas Prices At A BOIL, Market-Makers' Rest Of Year Outlook - Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about BOIL, a natural gas leveraged stock. Peter Way also discusses how the market makers operate.  He talked about some people quickly taking profits at the top of the trading range along with not holding any position longer than three months. If they can make 10-20% on each trade, the market makers can make 80% per year repeatedly.  These are also highly probable trades rather than waiting for a buy-and-hold pipe dream to take place.

Of course, the ultimate plan would be to allocate a certain amount of money to trading, another portion to dividend stocks, and a third portion for long term holdings.  As long as you keep your trading money and gains separate from the rest of your portfolio, you could get rich on trading alone while being safe mostly with the rest of your stocks.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Top 3 Monthly Dividend Paying ETFs For A Roth IRA [Global X Funds, iShares Trust] - Seeking Alpha

Top 3 Monthly Dividend Paying ETFs For A Roth IRA [Global X Funds, iShares Trust] - Seeking Alpha



Here is a very good  article about ETFs that pay good dividends.  I own SDIV and highly recommend it for the dividend of more than 6% annually, and you get paid monthly.  I also like DES which has outperformed the Dow for the past few years besides being a dividend stock.  Then, thirdly, HDV is another great ETF that has outperformed the Dow along with paying dividends.  The top ten holdings of HDV are also large well-known companies.


BlackRock Utility and Infrastructure (BUI) news: BlackRock Utility And Infrastructure Trust - Utilities At A 13% Discount And An 8% Distribution - Seeking Alpha

BlackRock Utility and Infrastructure (BUI) news: BlackRock Utility And Infrastructure Trust - Utilities At A 13% Discount And An 8% Distribution - Seeking Alpha



This is a great article about the BlackRock Utility and Infrastructure closed-end fund (BUI).  They pay a quarterly dividend of 8%, and the expense ratio is around 1%.  You may get enough capital gain to cancel out the expense ratio, but your net gain should be at least 7% which would be made in a safe way.  That is more than you would get with government bonds.  Also, the stock market will probably have a volatile year.  You probably won't make more than 10% this year in the S&P 500, and it will most likely involve a lot of worry and anxiety. BUI is the way to go for peace of mind.

Another point about BUI is that you get exposure to MLPs without having to fill out K-1 forms. BUI also writes options as a way of leveraging the fund's return.  BlackRock also has the top ten holdings in solid utilities.


ProShares UltraPro Dow30 ETF (UDOW) news: In This Year Of The Horse, Ride The Best In Our Stable: UDOW - Seeking Alpha

ProShares UltraPro Dow30 ETF (UDOW) news: In This Year Of The Horse, Ride The Best In Our Stable: UDOW - Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article by Peter Way about how UDOW, the triple Dow ETF is one of the best ways to invest in the stock market.  Peter explains how the market makers work in his article and how they love to trade the Dow stocks.  The author's article was written when UDOW was selling for $90 per share, and the price is now back over $97 per share.  The Dow had fallen below its 200 day average at the time of the low, and UDOW was really an outstanding buy then because the economy is nowhere near tanking.  So, stocks will always recover in this scenario.




Thursday, February 6, 2014

We Are About To Learn A Lot About Rally Attempt In Stocks - Seeking Alpha

We Are About To Learn A Lot About Rally Attempt In Stocks - Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another outstanding article about whether to have a risk-on or risk-off approach to owning stocks.  Currently, Chris holds both TLT (bonds) and QQQ (tech stocks) while it is not yet clear about a long term trend.  He showed a 2014 SPY:AGG chart where the short term trend is bearish because the 3-day and 5-day EMA lines are below the price chart.  So, profits need to be taken quickly no matter which side of the fence you are on because volatility has returned to the market.  It is an environment for chart lovers rather than buy and hold investors.


The Pain Has Only Just Begun [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha

The Pain Has Only Just Begun [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article by Eric Parnell about what people are thinking when it comes to the recent -6% correction.  Eric also talks about the shallow pullbacks of the last couple of years along with big drawbacks in the 2009-2011 era.  It is certain that volatility is back now.  I recently made 37% trading TVIX, but it may not be an easy trade in the future.  If a person rides the waves of this market, he needs to have good charting techniques because the patterns will certainly change.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Golar LNG Limited (USA) (GLNG) news: Golar LNG: Cheap Price With Unique Operational Advantages - Seeking Alpha

Golar LNG Limited (USA) (GLNG) news: Golar LNG: Cheap Price With Unique Operational Advantages - Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about Golar LNG.  Sooner or later, Golar will be transporting a huge amount of LNG to various places.  They also have floating units, FRSU, which store gas and process it.   I own stock in the company and plan to buy more in the future.


Hexagon Composites Is So Much More Than Just An NGV Play - Seeking Alpha

Hexagon Composites Is So Much More Than Just An NGV Play - Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article about Hexagon Composites, a foreign company involved in the natural gas vehicle business.  The company's share price has tripled in the past year, and there is still a lot of room to grow.  This is definitely a good stock to buy as part of a diversified portfolio.  An American natural gas business worth buying also is GTLS, Chart Industries.  Unfortunately, GTLS has fallen off a cliff lately, but I believe they will eventually recover.