The Price/FFO Metric: A Driving Force Of Outperformance | Seeking Alpha
Here is an old but excellent article about how to evaluate REIT stocks. The author did a great job in explaining that REIT stocks should be evaluated by the price/FFO method rather than by the company's PE. FFO means funds from operations. As most people know, REITs are supposed to return 90% of their profits back to investors in the form of dividends.
For simplification in determining the value of a REIT company, the author assumed that 100% of the money would be returned to investors, and this is indeed possible if the stock price appreciates during the year. So, if the price/FFO of a company is 20, the investor could expect a 5% return. If the price/FFO of a company is 10, the investor could expect a 10% return. It so happens that the eight REIT stocks in this article all had super returns in the year September 2011 to September 2012. Two stocks had a gain of 100% or more, and the rest of the stocks all had double-digit returns. This shows the power of investing in REIT stocks although during most years you should be happy if the return is 10% or greater. I am a steadfast believer that a portion of everyone's total portfolio should include some good REIT stocks.
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Saturday, April 25, 2015
U.S. Stocks: Timber! | Seeking Alpha
U.S. Stocks: Timber! | Seeking Alpha
Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article on how the price of lumber has fallen steeply while the stock market continues to rise. In a true strong economy, lumber should be rising along with stocks. So, the decline in lumber could be a sign that stocks will soon follow. Eric mentioned many lumber and construction stocks if you want to bet on a housing turnaround, but I am buying more of a housing short stock (SRS) myself because I think the economy is stalemated, and rising interest rates will cause housing to fall. New home sales have also dramatically declined.
Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article on how the price of lumber has fallen steeply while the stock market continues to rise. In a true strong economy, lumber should be rising along with stocks. So, the decline in lumber could be a sign that stocks will soon follow. Eric mentioned many lumber and construction stocks if you want to bet on a housing turnaround, but I am buying more of a housing short stock (SRS) myself because I think the economy is stalemated, and rising interest rates will cause housing to fall. New home sales have also dramatically declined.
The Last Two Oil Crashes Show Peak Oil Is Real - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha
The Last Two Oil Crashes Show Peak Oil Is Real - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha
This is a very interesting article about oil price crashes due to supply or demand issues. The author contends that the floor for the price of WTI oil is around $50 per barrel. From that point, oil prices will gradually get higher until the next supply or demand crisis occurs. Therefore, a person needs to load up on good oil stocks whenever the price of oil drops to $50 or lower because the price won't remain there long. Stocks like REXX and MDR have already validated this strategy because their stock prices are significantly above the bottom point of their recent decline.
This is a very interesting article about oil price crashes due to supply or demand issues. The author contends that the floor for the price of WTI oil is around $50 per barrel. From that point, oil prices will gradually get higher until the next supply or demand crisis occurs. Therefore, a person needs to load up on good oil stocks whenever the price of oil drops to $50 or lower because the price won't remain there long. Stocks like REXX and MDR have already validated this strategy because their stock prices are significantly above the bottom point of their recent decline.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
6 reasons to sell stocks now and go to cash
6 reasons to sell stocks now and go to cash
Here is a very good bearish article about why the stock market has probably reached its peak. The first reason for being cautious with stocks is that the job numbers have fallen. We are probably near maximum employment, and it can't be improved beyond this. We had the same situation happen in 2ooo when nearly everyone was employed, and then the stock market started falling which resulted in jobs being lost.
Another good point in the article is that the rallies have no legs. We are having a lot of one day rallies when a true bull market would have a least three rally days in a row. Moreover, we are experiencing huge resistance in the 2100 area of the S&P 500. We should be surging past 2100 by now if the bulls were truly in control.
A third great point is that the NYSE $Tick Index is weak. The $Tick for today was only +231, and the $Tick Index would go over +1000 in a strong bull market. In other words, we should have a lot more buyers compared to sellers. So, these are reasons for being very cautious in the stock market.
Here is a very good bearish article about why the stock market has probably reached its peak. The first reason for being cautious with stocks is that the job numbers have fallen. We are probably near maximum employment, and it can't be improved beyond this. We had the same situation happen in 2ooo when nearly everyone was employed, and then the stock market started falling which resulted in jobs being lost.
Another good point in the article is that the rallies have no legs. We are having a lot of one day rallies when a true bull market would have a least three rally days in a row. Moreover, we are experiencing huge resistance in the 2100 area of the S&P 500. We should be surging past 2100 by now if the bulls were truly in control.
A third great point is that the NYSE $Tick Index is weak. The $Tick for today was only +231, and the $Tick Index would go over +1000 in a strong bull market. In other words, we should have a lot more buyers compared to sellers. So, these are reasons for being very cautious in the stock market.
Friday, April 17, 2015
Why new stock market highs are ‘inevitable’ - Yahoo Finance
Why new stock market highs are ‘inevitable’ - Yahoo Finance
This is a very good article presenting the bullish case for stocks. The most convincing argument is that pullbacks are being quickly bought. That is why we are not having any big market declines. Secondly, the author spoke about how bonds have such a low return that stocks look better even while they are overvalued. Nobody knows when the plug will be pulled on our inflated market, but we need to make money while we can. If you don't, you will also lose time in the process as well, and you only have so much time to get rich.
This is a very good article presenting the bullish case for stocks. The most convincing argument is that pullbacks are being quickly bought. That is why we are not having any big market declines. Secondly, the author spoke about how bonds have such a low return that stocks look better even while they are overvalued. Nobody knows when the plug will be pulled on our inflated market, but we need to make money while we can. If you don't, you will also lose time in the process as well, and you only have so much time to get rich.
Is Saudi Arabia Setting The World Up For Major Oil Price Spike? - Yahoo Finance
Is Saudi Arabia Setting The World Up For Major Oil Price Spike? - Yahoo Finance
This is an interesting Yahoo article about how Saudi Arabia is producing more oil than normal to keep the price of oil low. This is also happening at a time when Iraq and Libya are putting more oil on the market. The end result is that the rally in U.S. oil stocks may be over for now even when our output is expected to decline in May. Dennis Gartman said the same thing at CNBC that the rally in the price of oil has peaked presently. Profits were being taken from MDR on Friday although the stock price recovered some at the day's end. So, it might be a good idea to take some money off the table in oil stocks next week.
This is an interesting Yahoo article about how Saudi Arabia is producing more oil than normal to keep the price of oil low. This is also happening at a time when Iraq and Libya are putting more oil on the market. The end result is that the rally in U.S. oil stocks may be over for now even when our output is expected to decline in May. Dennis Gartman said the same thing at CNBC that the rally in the price of oil has peaked presently. Profits were being taken from MDR on Friday although the stock price recovered some at the day's end. So, it might be a good idea to take some money off the table in oil stocks next week.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
EIA Predicts Natural Gas Production Starts Declining In May - The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) | Seeking Alpha
EIA Predicts Natural Gas Production Starts Declining In May - The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) | Seeking Alpha
Here is a great article predicting that natural gas prices will soon rise again. The EIA previously miscalculated the effect of the falling rig count. Nat gas production will be declining instead of building, and this could have a huge effect on the price. The author also pointed out that the price of oil is determined worldwide while the price we pay for natural gas is determined only here in North America. So, the analysts are terribly wrong in linking oil and natural gas together for prices. UGAZ will probably give you the most profit for investing in the trend reversal.
Here is a great article predicting that natural gas prices will soon rise again. The EIA previously miscalculated the effect of the falling rig count. Nat gas production will be declining instead of building, and this could have a huge effect on the price. The author also pointed out that the price of oil is determined worldwide while the price we pay for natural gas is determined only here in North America. So, the analysts are terribly wrong in linking oil and natural gas together for prices. UGAZ will probably give you the most profit for investing in the trend reversal.
Monday, April 13, 2015
SPY/TLT And SPXL/TMF Strategies Work Because Of Positive Alpha, Not Negative Correlation | Seeking Alpha
SPY/TLT And SPXL/TMF Strategies Work Because Of Positive Alpha, Not Negative Correlation | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article about combining bond and stock ETFs to form an above average return as long as the stock market trend is up. This SPY/TLT or SPXL/TMF strategy works because people often buy bonds or bond stocks in volatile times. They want the security of bonds because they seldom trust stocks. This is why TLT (long bonds) and TMF (leveraged long bonds) have been going up the past six years along with stocks. Certainly, there are times when TLT and SPY will go in opposite directions, but the overall trend of both has been up. Thus, you can probably make money with one of these bond/stock pairs until we enter the next bear market, and nobody knows when that will happen. This is a good plan to try as part of a diversified portfolio.
This is an excellent article about combining bond and stock ETFs to form an above average return as long as the stock market trend is up. This SPY/TLT or SPXL/TMF strategy works because people often buy bonds or bond stocks in volatile times. They want the security of bonds because they seldom trust stocks. This is why TLT (long bonds) and TMF (leveraged long bonds) have been going up the past six years along with stocks. Certainly, there are times when TLT and SPY will go in opposite directions, but the overall trend of both has been up. Thus, you can probably make money with one of these bond/stock pairs until we enter the next bear market, and nobody knows when that will happen. This is a good plan to try as part of a diversified portfolio.
Priced To Imperfection: Natural Gas Undervalued And Poised To Rally - The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) | Seeking Alpha
Priced To Imperfection: Natural Gas Undervalued And Poised To Rally - The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article on why natural gas is being priced too low with many excellent charts and statistics to prove this case. He also presented a good explanation of how natural gas futures contango works. The expected return from a price rally is going to be less than the rally percent due to contango. Moreover, the author talked about how contango is even worse on leveraged ETFs like UGAZ. So, he suggested that we should buy the non-leveraged UNG or a stock like RRC in order to profit from the eventual rise in the price of natural gas.
Here is an outstanding article on why natural gas is being priced too low with many excellent charts and statistics to prove this case. He also presented a good explanation of how natural gas futures contango works. The expected return from a price rally is going to be less than the rally percent due to contango. Moreover, the author talked about how contango is even worse on leveraged ETFs like UGAZ. So, he suggested that we should buy the non-leveraged UNG or a stock like RRC in order to profit from the eventual rise in the price of natural gas.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
$48k Per Year With A Half A Million Portfolio | Seeking Alpha
$48k Per Year With A Half A Million Portfolio | Seeking Alpha
This is a great article about how to live off your savings through high dividend stocks. I especially like the UBS REIT 2x ETFs, MORL and CEFL. MORL is paying 25% each year, and CEFL is paying almost 19%. The only problem here is when you buy the stocks at a high price. You will lose money when the stock price drops. Just be certain to buy these stocks when they are at a low point.
This is a great article about how to live off your savings through high dividend stocks. I especially like the UBS REIT 2x ETFs, MORL and CEFL. MORL is paying 25% each year, and CEFL is paying almost 19%. The only problem here is when you buy the stocks at a high price. You will lose money when the stock price drops. Just be certain to buy these stocks when they are at a low point.
Friday, April 10, 2015
The Planets Align For Investment In Wind | Seeking Alpha
The Planets Align For Investment In Wind | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article about wind energy. The author mentioned several stocks for wind investments, but you can play it safe by investing in FAN, the wind ETF. I own shares of FAN, and I plan to buy more this year because according to the EIA, wind additions will make up the biggest portion of electrical generating capacity in 2015.
The author also brought up the fact that birds being killed by windmill blades is insignificant. Far more birds are killed by cats and by flying into windows. I know the latter for certain is true because I had a kingfisher bird crash into my sliding glass door one time, and it killed him instantly. Now is the time to invest in wind power before the masses catch on that wind energy is here to stay and it is growing. Click on the EIA report below to expand it and see how big wind investments are becoming!
This is an excellent article about wind energy. The author mentioned several stocks for wind investments, but you can play it safe by investing in FAN, the wind ETF. I own shares of FAN, and I plan to buy more this year because according to the EIA, wind additions will make up the biggest portion of electrical generating capacity in 2015.
The author also brought up the fact that birds being killed by windmill blades is insignificant. Far more birds are killed by cats and by flying into windows. I know the latter for certain is true because I had a kingfisher bird crash into my sliding glass door one time, and it killed him instantly. Now is the time to invest in wind power before the masses catch on that wind energy is here to stay and it is growing. Click on the EIA report below to expand it and see how big wind investments are becoming!
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Promising Investment Opportunities Gushing From California's Epic Water Crisis
Promising Investment Opportunities Gushing From California's Epic Water Crisis
This is an outstanding article about the California water drought and possible water stocks that could advance due to water efficiency needs. ERII is one stock that appears to have broken out recently, and heavy buying has been taking place with Energy Recovery. ERII is involved with desalination projects and pressure energy which is used for electrical power. Gas processors and pipeline companies could use Energy Recovery's newest invention for turning hydraulic energy into electrical energy. I am buying ERII tomorrow, and I believe it may become one of my greatest stocks.
This is an outstanding article about the California water drought and possible water stocks that could advance due to water efficiency needs. ERII is one stock that appears to have broken out recently, and heavy buying has been taking place with Energy Recovery. ERII is involved with desalination projects and pressure energy which is used for electrical power. Gas processors and pipeline companies could use Energy Recovery's newest invention for turning hydraulic energy into electrical energy. I am buying ERII tomorrow, and I believe it may become one of my greatest stocks.
Natural gas production, supply centers on rebound | bakken.com
Natural gas production, supply centers on rebound | bakken.com
This is a great article about natural gas being used to fuel vehicles. CNG is still cheaper than gasoline even with the decline in gasoline prices. The price of natural gas has fallen along with the price of oil, but as more people and businesses use natural gas, the price should rebound. Then, when LNG starts being exported, we should really see a big increase in natural gas prices. UGAZ, REXX, and other gas related stocks should rebound quickly.
This is a great article about natural gas being used to fuel vehicles. CNG is still cheaper than gasoline even with the decline in gasoline prices. The price of natural gas has fallen along with the price of oil, but as more people and businesses use natural gas, the price should rebound. Then, when LNG starts being exported, we should really see a big increase in natural gas prices. UGAZ, REXX, and other gas related stocks should rebound quickly.
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
4 headwinds US stocks can't buck
4 headwinds US stocks can't buck
Howard Gold has written an excellent article about why the stock market has gone nowhere in the past few months, and this situation may continue for several more months at best while the worst could be a scary pullback in which you won't know where the bottom is. One headwind Howard mentioned was the eventual rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. I agree with the author that this fear is overblown, and the Fed will not destroy people's confidence in raising rates too high or too fast. For this reason, you should temporarily hold onto your investments, especially if they are oil companies like MDR and SD, but only for a while.
We must be extra cautious because other headwinds that Howard mentioned might really cause trouble. The strong dollar that we have will continue, and this will hurt commodity prices and earnings of big companies which do a lot of business overseas. So, the decline in earnings and the strong dollar fears will certainly put a cap on stocks for this year. Then, finally, there will be a big Congressional battle in October over the national budget and the debt ceiling. This could really cause an avalanche decline. So, we need to be prepared to sell our stocks at some point in the future while we still have a profit.
Howard Gold has written an excellent article about why the stock market has gone nowhere in the past few months, and this situation may continue for several more months at best while the worst could be a scary pullback in which you won't know where the bottom is. One headwind Howard mentioned was the eventual rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. I agree with the author that this fear is overblown, and the Fed will not destroy people's confidence in raising rates too high or too fast. For this reason, you should temporarily hold onto your investments, especially if they are oil companies like MDR and SD, but only for a while.
We must be extra cautious because other headwinds that Howard mentioned might really cause trouble. The strong dollar that we have will continue, and this will hurt commodity prices and earnings of big companies which do a lot of business overseas. So, the decline in earnings and the strong dollar fears will certainly put a cap on stocks for this year. Then, finally, there will be a big Congressional battle in October over the national budget and the debt ceiling. This could really cause an avalanche decline. So, we need to be prepared to sell our stocks at some point in the future while we still have a profit.
Monday, April 6, 2015
l-citrulline: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD
l-citrulline: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. Citrulline is an amino acid which is truly a fountain of youth. It is a body-building substance which increases nitric oxide, and NO increases the size of blood vessels. It is no wonder then that citrulline helps with sexual problems as well as muscular weakness. So, it is a wonder supplement for all ages of people especially for elderly people who have poor circulation and weak muscles.
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. Citrulline is an amino acid which is truly a fountain of youth. It is a body-building substance which increases nitric oxide, and NO increases the size of blood vessels. It is no wonder then that citrulline helps with sexual problems as well as muscular weakness. So, it is a wonder supplement for all ages of people especially for elderly people who have poor circulation and weak muscles.
Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Is Set To Deliver Growing Shareholder Value In The Years Ahead - Chicago Bridge & Iron Company (NYSE:CBI) | Seeking Alpha
Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Is Set To Deliver Growing Shareholder Value In The Years Ahead - Chicago Bridge & Iron Company (NYSE:CBI) | Seeking Alpha
This is a great article about Chicago Bridge & Iron. The company builds LNG facilities for exporting natural gas, and CBI has billions of dollars in backlog orders. The company has also been growing revenues at more than 20% each year. I own shares of CBI, and I highly recommend the company.
This is a great article about Chicago Bridge & Iron. The company builds LNG facilities for exporting natural gas, and CBI has billions of dollars in backlog orders. The company has also been growing revenues at more than 20% each year. I own shares of CBI, and I highly recommend the company.
Sunday, April 5, 2015
Citadel Energy (@CitadelEnergy1) | Twitter
Citadel Energy (@CitadelEnergy1) | Twitter
Here are several excellent tweets from Citadel Energy. For example, it is believed that we have 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil which is 4 times what Saudi Arabia has. We are well on our way to energy independence. Cabot Oil and Gas projects $2,000 in savings per household this year due to oil and gas development. Also, LNG exports will soon add more than $100 billion to the economy. Eventually, the price of oil and natural gas will rise again along with stocks like UGAZ, SD, REXX, and MDR.
Here are several excellent tweets from Citadel Energy. For example, it is believed that we have 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil which is 4 times what Saudi Arabia has. We are well on our way to energy independence. Cabot Oil and Gas projects $2,000 in savings per household this year due to oil and gas development. Also, LNG exports will soon add more than $100 billion to the economy. Eventually, the price of oil and natural gas will rise again along with stocks like UGAZ, SD, REXX, and MDR.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Rule Of 240 | Seeking Alpha
Rule Of 240 | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article which discusses forecasting how your 401K will grow over a certain number of years with a projected rate of return. The Rule of 72 was reviewed along with the Rule of 240. I was already familiar with the Rule of 72, but the Rule of 240 was very interesting in that it tells you how many years it will take to grow your money by 10 times. Making 10-baggers happen is what got me started in investing years ago. We need to be able to think ahead concerning our 401K outcomes and plan accordingly by trying to make the highest safe return that we can each year.
Here is an outstanding article which discusses forecasting how your 401K will grow over a certain number of years with a projected rate of return. The Rule of 72 was reviewed along with the Rule of 240. I was already familiar with the Rule of 72, but the Rule of 240 was very interesting in that it tells you how many years it will take to grow your money by 10 times. Making 10-baggers happen is what got me started in investing years ago. We need to be able to think ahead concerning our 401K outcomes and plan accordingly by trying to make the highest safe return that we can each year.
Whiting Petroleum - Rock-Solid Liquidity, 100% Upside - Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:WLL) | Seeking Alpha
Whiting Petroleum - Rock-Solid Liquidity, 100% Upside - Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:WLL) | Seeking Alpha
This is a very convincing article about why WLL is a buy at $32. I plan to buy some shares of Whiting on Monday while the stock is cheap. Moreover, I believe the bottom for the price of oil has already been made although some oscillations will probably still occur. The oil demand should soon overtake the reduced supply of oil due to the drilling rig reductions. So, we need to get positioned in oil stocks now before they rise significantly. I have already made money on MDR and I am still holding MDR for more future profit.
This is a very convincing article about why WLL is a buy at $32. I plan to buy some shares of Whiting on Monday while the stock is cheap. Moreover, I believe the bottom for the price of oil has already been made although some oscillations will probably still occur. The oil demand should soon overtake the reduced supply of oil due to the drilling rig reductions. So, we need to get positioned in oil stocks now before they rise significantly. I have already made money on MDR and I am still holding MDR for more future profit.
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