Sunday, November 13, 2016

Does The Trump Rally Look Sustainable Or Vulnerable? - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) | Seeking Alpha

Does The Trump Rally Look Sustainable Or Vulnerable? - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) | Seeking Alpha

Chris Ciovacco has written an excellent article about what to expect with stock market direction under Trump. As usual, the outstanding charts that Chris shows tell it all. The charts are bullish rather than bearish. In addition, sector charts like JJC and IYT are also bullish. Trump is intent on making the economy better, and I believe the market will melt higher with infrastructure stocks outperforming the general market.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Real Estate Review: Trump Wins, REITs Re-Price, Construction Surges - iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR) | Seeking Alpha

Real Estate Review: Trump Wins, REITs Re-Price, Construction Surges - iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR) | Seeking Alpha

This is an outstanding article about the dramatic rise in construction stocks since Trump has promised to build out our infrastructure. One construction ETF that the author mentioned is PKB, and I am buying it Monday morning. I believe the President will be able to keep his promise about rebuilding America, and construction stocks like PKB and VMC are the way to go except that Vulcan Materials (VMC) has a big overbought gap up that will probably come back to a more reasonable buying level.

Secondly, the author mentioned the fall of long-term bond prices, and this is related to foreigners selling bonds as well as people getting out of bonds to buy growth stocks. So, bonds are not the place to be right now. This also affects some preferred stocks since the preferred stocks may hold bonds.


Friday, November 11, 2016

FANG Is Dead - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha

FANG Is Dead - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha

Here is a very important article about why the FANG stocks are dead, especially Amazon which was the leader of the group. The market believes that AMZN may be topped out on revenues because companies cannot go up forever, and we have seen the same thing happen in the decline of Apple. From a technical standpoint, Amazon's top is also confirmed by Elliott Wave theory where wave 5 is the peak of the stock or the market itself.

Nevertheless, the author also believes that Amazon will be a buy at $697 for a trade where you might want to get off at $800. Whether you accept this trade or not, you could probably find other stocks to buy on market pullbacks. For example, the Dow went up while the Nasdaq went down on the Trump victory. Therefore, UDOW (3x Dow ETF) might be a good buy for a trade whenever stocks go down because the Dow seems to like Trump. You will need to sell for a profit at some point though because we are so near the peak in the market that buy and hold is dead.

Making Sense Out Of Trump Victory And Bond Bloodbath - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) | Seeking Alpha

Making Sense Out Of Trump Victory And Bond Bloodbath - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) | Seeking Alpha

This is a great article on why government bonds are going down while big company names in the stock market are also sinking. Foreign governments are dumping bonds because they don't like the possibility of trade wars happening with Trump as the President. Usually government bonds are a safe place to hide when stocks are going down, but this is not the case in the new world order.

Secondly, interest rates are going up whether the Federal Reserve raises rates or not. This will result in a downturn for real estate, and the short real estate ETF, SRS, might be the best way to trade this scenario. Moreover, businesses will also be tanking because higher interest rates will make it harder for them to expand their companies or even keep the status quo.

Thirdly, while some say that banks thrive in a higher interest environment, the other side of the coin is that banks can lose on defaults and fewer loans due to the higher interest. This affects the so-called safe preferred stocks that have been paying attractive dividends. They are tied to banks enough that they will go down with the rest of stocks as interest rates rise.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Amazon: Will Investors Get A Kick From The Company's Latest Spending Cycle? - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha

Amazon: Will Investors Get A Kick From The Company's Latest Spending Cycle? - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha



Here is another great article about Amazon.  The author covers many good aspects in the fundamentals for AMZN.  The free cash flow is growing (60% YOY), and revenues increased 29%.  The company earned 52 cents per share.  This does not sound like a broken company.  It is a growing company that should be bought on all big pullbacks.  Also, the company opened 18 distribution centers and grew its warehouse footprint by 30%.   Amazon will be a buy for probably many years.


Amazon Pulls Back, Prime Enters China; Uber's Self-Flying Vehicles - Eye On Tech - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha

Amazon Pulls Back, Prime Enters China; Uber's Self-Flying Vehicles - Eye On Tech - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about why Amazon is a buy after the 5% earnings drop.  I own Amazon myself, and I was certainly disappointed with the pullback, but stuff like this happens sometimes.  Cramer is also saying that AMZN is a buy now.



However, if I had been doing my due diligence, I would have temporarily sold Amazon before earnings, and I could buy it back now at a 5% discount.  The reason I am saying this is that technical charts often tell what is going to happen to a stock before big drops occur.   After the big drop in AMZN following earnings, I finally did some technical analysis which I should have been doing all along.  Amazon violated the 89 day simple moving average line several days before it crashed at earnings time.  I should have known to sell at that point, and I would have avoided the 5% loss.  The smart money or insiders had already been selling Amazon.  The MACD was pointing down at that time also.  So, Amazon's chart was telling us that something bad was about to happen.  I'll try to pay more attention in the future.



That is now water under the bridge.  I am holding onto Amazon because I don't want to sell after the drop, and the stock is a long-term buy.  Susquehanna has a $1,250 price target for AMZN.  So, I believe Amazon is a buy on all large drops like the one we just got.


Tuesday, October 18, 2016

When to buy TMF, the 3x long bonds ETF

I have successfully traded TMF, the 3x long bonds ETF, a number of times.  It follows closely what TLT does which is the popular government long bonds ETF without any leverage.  Today, I read an article by Jeff Clark about how TLT is due for a reversal to the upside.  This means that even more money can be made with TMF since it is a triple ETF.

Jeff made some key points about TLT in his article.  He said that TLT rarely goes more than 3.6% below its 50 day average before it reverses, and that is where it is now.  Moreover, its RSI is low, and the MACD is pointing upward.  This trading situation has happened three times this year.  Therefore, we need to make money while the trade is there because it won't last since the Federal Reserve will eventually raise interest rates.