Saturday, March 25, 2017

Bonds Are Not Dead

Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article about why the bond bull market will likely continue.  You can read the article here http://seekingalpha.com/article/4057730-bullish-bond-outlook?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget.  I agree with Eric 100%.  He presented information about how the bond selloff last year has ended.  People and countries are buying bonds again because they don't trust the stock market.

Eric also showed charts where the bond yields are stuck in a downward channel.  I am planning to buy more TMF (the 3x long term bond ETF) on Monday because I believe I will be able to make a profit in long term bonds over the next several weeks as stocks gradually fall.  Then, I will sell most of my TMF when the market correction is finished.

 

Stocks Are Going Down

Eric Parnell has written an excellent article about why stocks are in a correction process right now.  You can read the article here.  He provides outstanding charts to back up this idea along with some possible buy-in points when the market decline is over.

I got on board with this idea during the past week when the Dow suddenly fell over 200 points in a single day.  The love affair with Trump is over for a while.  I immediately bought a position in SQQQ (the 3x short Nasdaq ETF) the day after the market fell.  The stock market decline may indeed be gradual like it has been subtly so in March except for the one big down day.  So, I am looking for a 7-10% pullback over the next several weeks.  Then, I will sell SQQQ for a profit, and I will buy either TQQQ or UDOW for the ride back up.


Sunday, March 5, 2017

The Trump Era In Stocks

Now that President Trump has been in office for a while, we can make some plans for investing or trading stocks during his term.  First, the major indexes are up double digits since Trump's election.  This means that the stock market will probably do well if he continues doing okay.  However, we may soon have a market correction since it is overbought now.  I will probably buy more UDOW whenever the market pulls back, and then I will sell part of my UDOW holdings when the market goes back up.  So, I might be able to make money a few times a year during volatility.

Another good idea is to trade natural gas on a seasonal basis.  I made double digit returns on some DGAZ trades in the last two months when the short natural gas ETF was profitable during the warm winter.  Now, I have three bullish natural gas trades going on through UGAZ.  I am planning to hold UGAZ until sometime in July.  More natural gas will be used during the summer when utilities burn it for summer cooling.  The summer is also a time when natural gas is added to storage for the next winter cycle.