Sunday, April 27, 2014

ETRACS Monthly Pay 2XLeveraged Mortgage REIT ETN (MORL) news: UBS Leveraged ETNs: Separating Fact From Fiction - Seeking Alpha

ETRACS Monthly Pay 2XLeveraged Mortgage REIT ETN (MORL) news: UBS Leveraged ETNs: Separating Fact From Fiction - Seeking Alpha



This is a very informative article about the pros and cons of owning 2X leveraged ETNs such as MORL and CEFL sponsored by UBS.  I own both of this monthly-pay stocks, and I have been happy with the 17-21% annual dividend income from them.  However, you should not buy these stocks unless you plan to hold them for a long time.  There is a 50,000 share minimum redemption for the stocks.  Of course, you can get around that by paying a penalty when you sell fewer shares.  The author mentioned a UBS withdrawal charge of $62.50 for 100 shares.  Some brokers may waive this penalty if they own more than 50,000 shares themselves, but it is a disadvantage that small investors must consider.  As for myself, I'll just collect the dividends until my cost basis becomes zero or less, and I may never sell them.


Stocks And The 7 Year Itch [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha

Stocks And The 7 Year Itch [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written another great article about why we are probably at a stock market top.  2014 started out bad just like 2000 and 2007 did before stocks rolled over and crashed.  New highs were also made in the previous market top years just like this year to confound investors.  The charts that Eric showed were very instructive in showing the topping process.  We must be very careful in the stock market this year.  Probably the only significant money being made might be in dividend stocks or by trading the up-down waves.


Bert Dohmen: 'This Is Very Much Like 2008' [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha

Bert Dohmen: 'This Is Very Much Like 2008' [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust] - Seeking Alpha



Here is a very good article on why stocks are at a market top.  The author mentions a distribution pattern where we have a large volume on down days that shows the institutions are selling.  Then, optimistic minded retail investors and dumb institutions are buying the dips, and stocks rise again on low volume.  After that, the smart money people unload another round of their stocks, and the pattern repeats. So, stocks don't go up very much overall.  Housing is also in bad shape, and that is another sign of a top in the stock market.


The surprising foods making you sick - Nutrition - MSN Healthy Living

The surprising foods making you sick - Nutrition - MSN Healthy Living



As I occasionally do, I will talk about interesting subjects other than stocks.  According to MSN, fruits and vegetables can make you have allergic reactions if you have an allergy for pollen which is common in the spring.  Apples are one of these culprits.  Cooking the apples removes the offending particles.  Ham and bacon are other allergy producing foods which are high in histamines.  Dried fruit is another problem area due to sulfur dioxide.  Wine and grape juice can cause problems because of chemicals in the grape skins.  One other food is sauerkraut due to an enzyme called tyramine.


Saturday, April 26, 2014

Gazprom Says Won't Halt Gas Flows to Europe Over Ukraine Gas Price Row - WSJ.com

Gazprom Says Won't Halt Gas Flows to Europe Over Ukraine Gas Price Row - WSJ.com



This is an interesting article about natural gas being delivered to Europe through Ukraine.  Supposedly, Ukraine owes billions of dollars to Gazprom for gas it either delivered or was contracted to deliver.  Gazprom is planning to cut off the gas flow to Ukraine in May if they don't pay part of their bill.  If gas gets cut off, southern Europe won't get any either.  On top of that, we have military tensions between Russia and Ukraine.  Now is not a good time to be investing in Gazprom.

3 Unique Multi-Sector Income Strategies [PIMCO Dynamic Credit Income Fund, DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund, Blackrock Multi-Sector Income Trust] - Seeking Alpha

3 Unique Multi-Sector Income Strategies [PIMCO Dynamic Credit Income Fund, DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund, Blackrock Multi-Sector Income Trust] - Seeking Alpha



Every portfolio should have a good allocation of dividend stocks.  In this way, you get paid whether the stock market goes up or down.  In fact, I recommend 50% dividend stocks.  The stocks that the author mentioned pay around 8% annually in dividends.  PCI, DSL, and BIT are all worth looking at for dividend stocks to hold in your portfolio. Some of the dividend stocks that I personally hold are PSEC, CEFL, MORL, and PHT.  I have been very happy with these stocks.


Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: The Tesla Big Picture For Investors - Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: The Tesla Big Picture For Investors - Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about why Tesla is a good buy.  The author also gives a great timeline for how Tesla will get to 500,000 auto sales by 2020.  The stock is most likely a good buy at around $200 or less.  From there, it could easily double or triple over the next several years.  You won't get that kind of gain by holding the S&P 500.




Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO) news: The Great Bear Market Warrior - Seeking Alpha

Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO) news: The Great Bear Market Warrior - Seeking Alpha



This is a great article by Eric Parnell about how Family Dollar (FDO) does very well in bear markets since people are trying to economize on lower budgets.  The author presents charts to show how FDO does during bad times.  It may not be a good time right now to buy Family Dollar, but I will certainly consider it whenever we have the next bear market.


Thursday, April 24, 2014

Ekaterina Rudich | VK

Ekaterina Rudich | VK



Here is another link to the Russian model, Ekaterina Rudich.  Google will translate the website to English.  See also the other link in the previous post.  The world is an interesting place!


cashcash |'s answers

cashcash |'s answers



As I occasionally do, I will publish a link to something other than stocks.  This is an interesting link to a Russian model's website.  She gives advice as well as some advertising.  Google will translate the website to English, also.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Uranium Energy Corp.: This Stock Is About To Go Nuclear - Seeking Alpha

Uranium Energy Corp.: This Stock Is About To Go Nuclear - Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article on UEC.  Uranium has been in a slump since the Japan disaster, but UEC is a company that can produce uranium below the current uranium price of $32.50.  In fact, I was surprised to learn also that UEC has a lower cost of production than Cameco, the largest uranium supplier in the world.  So, Uranium Energy is definitely a worthwhile company to watch whenever the nuclear industry starts to come back from the bottom.


Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Factory Electrifies Lithium Producers - Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Factory Electrifies Lithium Producers - Seeking Alpha



This is a very interesting article about Tesla, electric vehicles, and lithium producers.  The good news is that Tesla will have no problem with lithium supply capacity.  If they build their battery plant in or near Nevada, Rockwood and Western Lithium will be the closest lithium suppliers.  The author made it clear that Rockwood and SQM were the lowest cost lithium producers, but the delivery distance to Tesla's battery factory will also be an economic factor.  I own Western Lithium, and I expect that they will be the closest lithium producer to Tesla's manufacturing plant.  Electric vehicles are also here to stay!



  

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Capital Markets Are Not Buying What Talking Heads Are Selling - Seeking Alpha

Capital Markets Are Not Buying What Talking Heads Are Selling - Seeking Alpha



Here is an excellent article pointing out the bearish case for stocks. Of course, the market could continue to gradually move upward with brief pullbacks.  However, the author talked about significant details. He mentioned that the ten-year bond yield is acting like people are buying bonds instead of stocks.  If all was well, the ten-year interest rate should be 3% or more instead of 2.65%.



Secondly, utilities are the leading sector now.  When this happens, people are becoming defensive.  I added to my XLU (utilities ETF) after I noticed how XLU had grown 12% in almost no time at all.



Thirdly, lumber prices and housing starts are down.  This is definitely bearish.  Housing is usually a big leader in a true bull market.  So, we must be very cautious in today's stock market.  Profits should be taken quickly when you have them, and you need to add defensive positions.


It’s Not Too Late to Profit from the US Shale Gale

It’s Not Too Late to Profit from the US Shale Gale



This is an outstanding article about the natural gas boom.  We used a lot of natural gas this past winter during our unusually cold weather, and weather forecasters have said that this may become a normal scenario.  Add to that the U.S. plans to export natural gas, and we have many companies that can grow through the natural gas boom.  FRAK is an ETF that has some big names of gas and oil in its top ten holdings such as Anadarko, EOG, Devon, Encana, Occidental, Noble, and Pioneer Natural Resources.  FRAK has also been growing in double-digits.



Another natural gas ETF is FCG, and it has also been growing in double-digits.  Some of the top holdings of FCG are Penn Virginia, Comstock Resources, Magnum Hunter, Newfield, Ultra Petroleum, and Forest Oil.  Buying these ETFs will give you instant diversification in natural gas companies, and it will assure that you will be participating in the natural gas boom.




Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now) [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), ProShares Short S&P500 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF), ProShares Ultra S&P500 (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha

Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now) [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), ProShares Short S&P500 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF), ProShares Ultra S&P500 (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha



The bull and bear case for stocks can be argued endlessly right now because the economy is doing okay while stocks are undeniably overvalued.  The bears have ammunition when stocks are overbought, but they don't have enough ammunition to bring down the fort until the economy starts to go down.  Federal Reserve manufacturing reports and housing will need to be monitored to see when the economy is truly going down.



The link to the article above will show that we are a long way from a bear market for other reasons.  The author contends that it will take one-and-a-half to three years after the Federal Reserve starts to raise rates before a stock market top occurs.  So, if the Fed begins to raise rates next year, we still have a minimum of two and a half years before the market starts to go down.  This is based on 100 years of stock market data.



Another argument that the author mentioned is that inflation will need to be 4% or higher to send stocks down.  One of my favorite websites for monitoring inflation and other economic factors is the St. Louis Federal Reserve.  You can look at their FRED page to get a snapshot of how the economy is doing.  We are nowhere near 4% inflation right now.  So, this article supports the bull case for stocks right now.



In this type of environment, though, the bears have enough power to restrict stock market gains.  The market will only slowly creep higher since stocks are already overvalued, and there will probably be several big pullbacks this year.  The best stock to buy when the market is down is UDOW, the leveraged Dow ETF.  The market will always recover because we are still okay economically.  You will just have to be patient until the Dow gets back near the top again and then take profits on UDOW while you have them.  If you can make 8% on UDOW five times per year, you will make 40% for your money.  This will most likely beat most stocks as well as the S&P 500.


Friday, April 18, 2014

More To Economic Slowdown Than Weather [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF] - Seeking Alpha

More To Economic Slowdown Than Weather [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF] - Seeking Alpha



This is a great article by Sy Harding about how the economy appears to be slowing down.  While Federal Reserve regional business reports are mixed, housing starts are going down.  As Sy mentioned, the housing industry usually leads the economy and the stock market in boom and bust times.  The decline in housing starts as well as permits is a bad sign.  This may be one reason the stock market has become more volatile.  We need to keep our eyes on the exit doors in case the stock market takes a serious downturn.

 

The Return Of Energy ETF Dominance? [Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF), First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (ETF), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore & Prod. (ETF), Market Vectors ETF Trust, iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equip. (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha

The Return Of Energy ETF Dominance? [Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF), First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (ETF), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore & Prod. (ETF), Market Vectors ETF Trust, iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equip. (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha



Here is a good article about how energy ETFs are once again in favor. Gary Gordon is very good at analyzing ETFs.  I remember how he recommended XIV, the inverse volatility index, a few years ago when it was selling for $6 per share, and it became a multi-bagger stock. Now, Gary is recommending energy ETFs like FCG-- involving natural gas, XOP--the Spiders energy and exploration fund, and FRAK--the fracking industry companies.  All of these ETFs are recently up double-digits, and they may keep climbing.




Ballard Power Systems Inc. (USA) (BLDP) news: Ballard Power Systems: This 140% Gainer Is Set To Fly Higher - Seeking Alpha

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (USA) (BLDP) news: Ballard Power Systems: This 140% Gainer Is Set To Fly Higher - Seeking Alpha



This is a great article about Ballard Power (BLDP) and why the fuel cell market is going to rapidly expand over the next several years.  The industry will reportedly grow 22% each year until 2020.  Fuel cell cars are now a reality just like electric vehicles, and Ballard has a partnership with Volkswagen.  Ballard is also a partner with Plug Power and makes the fuel cell stacks for them.  So, Ballard and Plug Power will be growing perhaps exponentially together.



Ballard is expected to grow earnings more than 50% each year for the next two years, and it has plenty of cash on hand.  I own Plug Power and I am planning to buy Ballard also in the near future.  Fuel cells are here to stay, and there is a good chance that these companies will outperform the S&P 500.


Thursday, April 17, 2014

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies - Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla In China: Cleaning Up The Smoggy Skies - Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about Tesla's (TSLA) chances of increasing its electric vehicle auto sales in China.  As the author mentioned, China sales could equal U.S. sales of cars as early as next year.  I am a believer of the long-term story of Tesla as a good buy at the $200 or less level.  As the company's sales begin to accelerate, Tesla's price will also move toward $500 or more in the coming years.


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Spotting a market bottom is no easy affair- MSN Money

Spotting a market bottom is no easy affair- MSN Money



Here is an interesting article by Jim Cramer about when the bottom of the mid-April market correction occurred and possible reasons why the stock market immediately reversed from that point.  Jim is one of the best people I know for understanding the stock market as a whole. He was a hedge fund manager at one time.  People often criticize Cramer when he misses on individual stock forecasts, but I would never want to bet against Jim on the general stock market direction. In this article, he goes into detail about how bonds with TLT as the proxy are in a see-saw battle with stocks.  He also brings up a good point about how margins were being forced against sellers.  So, the stock market has several undercurrents where you need good advice from a savvy experienced analyst like Jim in order to understand what will happen next so that you can adjust your portfolio accordingly.


Saturday, April 12, 2014

The End Of The Correction-Less Fantasy Land [JPMorgan Chase & Co.] - Seeking Alpha

The End Of The Correction-Less Fantasy Land [JPMorgan Chase & Co.] - Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another outstanding article about what severe corrections look like and how long they will last.  It is too early to say where the bottom of this correction is.  We must be prepared for the worst while there is a good chance we are close to a rebound. If the worst case takes place, the stock market could be down for months.



My guess is that we might have another 6% correction like we had earlier this year.  But volatility will continue in 2014.  There may be several 6-7% corrections.  If we rebound from the current downturn, I would be willing to bet we will have another correction in May or June.  Good stocks to buy at the bottom might be SOXL, the 3X semiconductor ETF, and TQQQ, the leveraged Nasdaq ETF.  Then, when the stock market gets near its all-time highs again, that is the time to buy TVIX, the leveraged volatility index because earnings are not that good.  2014 will primarily be a range-bound market.




Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [McDonald's Corporation, Utilities SPDR (ETF), iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha

Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [McDonald's Corporation, Utilities SPDR (ETF), iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF), iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF)] - Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written a very good article about why the recent stock market decline is most likely just a correction.  He mentioned that the S&P 500 bounced off the 150-day moving average line when we had our 6% correction earlier this year in January to the first part of February.  So, if the S&P falls to 1793, that could be the turn-around point for stocks.



Eric also mentioned that LQD, the corporate bond ETF, is doing just fine.  If we were headed for a bear market, it would be dropping along with the rest of the stock market.  The credit markets are okay.  PFF, the preferred stocks ETF, is also doing well.  XLU, the utilities ETF, is also showing no signs of stress.  An all-out bear market would send XLU down with most other stocks.



Another point that Eric made was that VIX, the volatility index, was behaving normally.  Highs of recent years are only around 21, and we are currently in the 16 range.  If perchance VIX goes above 18, it might keep going to 21 while the S&P 500 moving average might break its 200-day line.  This would probably signal a reversal, though, because the economy is nowhere near a bear market scenario.




Market selloff will stop when the 'smart money' quits selling | Michael Santoli - Yahoo Finance

Market selloff will stop when the 'smart money' quits selling | Michael Santoli - Yahoo Finance



Here is a great article explaining the reasons for the recent stock market sell-off.  Big institutions are basically taking profits.  You have also probably noticed multiple tops in the major stock market indexes.  We don't have enough buyers to push the market higher. That may change after stocks fall 8 to 10 %.



The good news in this article is that the economy is actually okay.  So, we are probably experiencing a large pullback rather than a beginning bear market.  The challenge will be knowing where the bottom of the sell-off is.  When $NYMO, the McClellan Oscillator, gets to -80, that might be the bottom.  It is currently -48.




Friday, April 11, 2014

10 signs that a bear is stalking the market- MSN Money

10 signs that a bear is stalking the market- MSN Money



This is an excellent article by Jim Cramer about bear signs.  It is possible that we will get an oversold bounce on Monday, though.  $NYMO, the McClellan Oscillator is at -48, and a rally will certainly take place soon especially if it goes all the way to -80.  However, the stock market will continue to ratchet down for the near future.  You will have to take profits on short-lived rallies.



Jim thinks earnings will be terrible, and the stock market bull is out of gas for going higher.  Also, China and Japan are not doing well.  This situation will pull down the whole global economy including us.  Our economy is actually doing pretty good right now, but the fact that "good news" is being dismissed means there is a lot of fear in the market, and that is why stocks will keep going down.


Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries - Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries - Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article on why Tesla (TSLA) is a buy when the price is in the low $200 range.  The author states that Tesla most likely will meet or beat their earnings guidance.  There is also no other electric vehicle that can beat Tesla on distance range before a recharge is necessary.  The company also has excellent service support.  I own shares of Tesla and will buy more shares on significant pullbacks.  Tesla can probably gain more than 30% each year.

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

ETFs: Comparing The Incomparables, A Second Time [ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF] - Seeking Alpha

ETFs: Comparing The Incomparables, A Second Time [ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF] - Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article by Peter Way about how to gain money through popular ETFs.  Whether we are at a stock market top or not, we will always have oversold situations after a few big days of sell-offs.  That is the time to buy momentum ETFs that formerly lead the market, like TQQQ, the Nasdaq leveraged ETF, TNA, the small cap leveraged ETF, and FAS, the financial stocks 3X ETF.  Peter maintains you can make 110% per year if you trade these stocks correctly.  You must sell when you have a profit, though, and hold the cash for the next sell-off opportunity.



Small caps and the Nasdaq 100 are still the innovators.  TSLA is another stock to buy when it pulls back near its 50-day line.  You could have a core holding of future multi-bagger stocks, but use some of your shares for trading.  If you can make 10% on trading 10 times each year, you will have made 100% on that portion of your money. Virtually every month gives us a chance to buy low, and we can sell some shares when the market gets overbought again so that we are always making money in the present time rather than waiting for a future payout.



  

Saturday, April 5, 2014

Dow Theory Signal Questions Bullish Economic And Market Trends - Seeking Alpha

Dow Theory Signal Questions Bullish Economic And Market Trends - Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another excellent article on how to determine which way the stock market is going.  He presented a 50-day chart of the Dow Jones showing a flat 50-day line, and cases where this occurred previously in 2011 and 2008 resulted in large stock market declines.  Whenever Chris turns cautious and Jim Cramer turns bearish, I will follow their lead and reduce my long positions while buying more TVIX, the volatility index ETF, for downside protection.


Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise - Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise - Seeking Alpha



This is a very good article about ways to possibly value Tesla (TSLA).  I own the stock myself, and it is not for the faint of heart.  The author makes it clear that Tesla is far beyond the realm of good value currently, but if you look at the company's revenue acceleration, Tesla is a good stock to buy.  Nobody knows how far Tesla can go. Stocks are usually bought on the basis of growing future earnings, and Tesla is a long way from reaching mature stock status where earnings go flat.  So, you will probably be able to make money on Tesla if you buy it on pullbacks, but due diligence must be done to determine where good buying prices are located.  You might try the 50-day or 100-day moving average lines for buying.  You must also consider what the stock market in general is doing.  In the event of a market crash, story stocks like Tesla will be sold first, and you will need to sit on the sidelines for a while.


Thursday, April 3, 2014

Republic Wireless

Republic Wireless



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than stocks. Republic Wireless seems to be a worthwhile cheap phone carrier.  To simplify things, you buy your phone outright at the start.  Then, you pay a low monthly fee based on what you want for the phone.  If you just want Wifi internet, voice calls, and texting, you can get it for just $10 per month.  If you want 3G internet anywhere as well as the first three choices, you pay $25 per month, and this is still very reasonable.  If you want 4G, the price moves to $40.  Most people would not be able to tell the difference between 3G and 4G data transfers.  So, I think the $25 plan is the best.  Then, if you want a backup second phone just for calling, pay another $10 and you have all the bases covered.