Sunday, October 30, 2016

Amazon: Will Investors Get A Kick From The Company's Latest Spending Cycle? - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha

Amazon: Will Investors Get A Kick From The Company's Latest Spending Cycle? - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha



Here is another great article about Amazon.  The author covers many good aspects in the fundamentals for AMZN.  The free cash flow is growing (60% YOY), and revenues increased 29%.  The company earned 52 cents per share.  This does not sound like a broken company.  It is a growing company that should be bought on all big pullbacks.  Also, the company opened 18 distribution centers and grew its warehouse footprint by 30%.   Amazon will be a buy for probably many years.


Amazon Pulls Back, Prime Enters China; Uber's Self-Flying Vehicles - Eye On Tech - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha

Amazon Pulls Back, Prime Enters China; Uber's Self-Flying Vehicles - Eye On Tech - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about why Amazon is a buy after the 5% earnings drop.  I own Amazon myself, and I was certainly disappointed with the pullback, but stuff like this happens sometimes.  Cramer is also saying that AMZN is a buy now.



However, if I had been doing my due diligence, I would have temporarily sold Amazon before earnings, and I could buy it back now at a 5% discount.  The reason I am saying this is that technical charts often tell what is going to happen to a stock before big drops occur.   After the big drop in AMZN following earnings, I finally did some technical analysis which I should have been doing all along.  Amazon violated the 89 day simple moving average line several days before it crashed at earnings time.  I should have known to sell at that point, and I would have avoided the 5% loss.  The smart money or insiders had already been selling Amazon.  The MACD was pointing down at that time also.  So, Amazon's chart was telling us that something bad was about to happen.  I'll try to pay more attention in the future.



That is now water under the bridge.  I am holding onto Amazon because I don't want to sell after the drop, and the stock is a long-term buy.  Susquehanna has a $1,250 price target for AMZN.  So, I believe Amazon is a buy on all large drops like the one we just got.


Tuesday, October 18, 2016

When to buy TMF, the 3x long bonds ETF

I have successfully traded TMF, the 3x long bonds ETF, a number of times.  It follows closely what TLT does which is the popular government long bonds ETF without any leverage.  Today, I read an article by Jeff Clark about how TLT is due for a reversal to the upside.  This means that even more money can be made with TMF since it is a triple ETF.

Jeff made some key points about TLT in his article.  He said that TLT rarely goes more than 3.6% below its 50 day average before it reverses, and that is where it is now.  Moreover, its RSI is low, and the MACD is pointing upward.  This trading situation has happened three times this year.  Therefore, we need to make money while the trade is there because it won't last since the Federal Reserve will eventually raise interest rates.


Sunday, October 16, 2016

Pullback or New Bear Market? - YouTube

Pullback or New Bear Market? - YouTube



Here is a great pictorial discussion of bear and bull market signs.  The main indicators are currently on the side of a bull market.  The 2000 and 2008 indicators were clearly going down, and that is not what we have today.  So, we are safe, but picking good stocks is imperative.

Is It Time To Throw In The Bullish Towel? - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) | Seeking Alpha

Is It Time To Throw In The Bullish Towel? - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written an outstanding article on the state of the stock market.  I agree with him that we are not yet tipping into a bear market.  The market daily and weekly averages are not all going down like they were in 2000 and 2008.  We appear to be in a consolidation phase instead.  Only the strongest stocks are doing well, though.  AMZN is my largest holding, and I own several preferred stock funds as well so that I get paid while I wait.