Sunday, November 18, 2012

Stock Market Downtrend Is Over

Several stock market indicators turned positive during the week of November 12-16.  First, the President and Congress showed a willingness to cooperate in solving the nation's budget crisis.  Secondly, this is the fall rally season.  Downturns seldom last for long in the fall as opposed to the extensive May selloffs and summer blues.

Another important indicator was the NYSE McClellan Oscillator.  It briefly went below -80 during the week and then immediately turned upward.  This scenario nearly always turns into a significant rally.  It is time to sell short stocks like TZA and buy long stocks like UDOW.  

Another point to make concerning an imminent uptrend is the action of UDOW.  Even though the stock price is at a low point, the RSI and MACD have both turned upward.  This divergence is an early signal of a trend change.  This new rally will probably last several weeks unless some bad world news shortens the trend.

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