Sunday, August 31, 2014

Infographic of the Day: Can Aspirin Help Prevent Cancer?

Infographic of the Day: Can Aspirin Help Prevent Cancer?



This is a very interesting article and graphic illustration on the benefits of aspirin.  The bleeding complications of aspirin have been overblown in comparison to the benefits.  If aspirin causes you to bleed, you could simply cut back on the dosage or use a buffered type of aspirin.  Aspirin is a miracle drug that can be used to prevent cancer and heart disease.


Saturday, August 30, 2014

Reaffirming The Bullish Thesis For Twitter - Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) | Seeking Alpha

Reaffirming The Bullish Thesis For Twitter - Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very good article about Twitter (TWTR).  I own shares of the company, and I am excited about the long term prospects.  Twitter has dramatically increased their income over the past year, and the company now has positive earnings.  Just as Facebook and Google were overvalued by a lot initially, Twitter will most likely grow into a mature company sooner than people may think.  I believe the company is a great buy as part of a well diversified portfolio.


As stocks rise, so does anxiety: Time to get out?: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money

As stocks rise, so does anxiety: Time to get out?: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money



This is an excellent article which presents the bull and bear cases for stocks.  On the bull side, there is nothing significant that could bring stocks down.  The economy is getting stronger, not weaker.  The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings 8% in 2014 and 12% in 2015.  So, earnings are not topped out like some people thought.



In addition, interest rates are low, and the old saying goes that stocks will "grow" under those conditions.  Both individuals and businesses can expand with low interest money, and bonds are not attractive with low interest rates.  One analyst said that the last seven bull markets did not end until interest rates were higher than 4%.  We are nowhere near that scenario now.  Thus, we need to make money while we can by being mostly long.



On the bear side, it is definitely true that stocks are overvalued.  It is also well known that the Federal Reserve will eventually raise interest rates.  Because of these conditions, long term bonds are being bought since many believe we are near a stock market top.  We have the unusual scenario that stocks and bonds are rising together because separate groups are buying their favorite assets.  I own 20% bonds myself in TMF and TLT, and I am making money on bonds as well as stocks.


Friday, August 29, 2014

AudioCodes

jkvaluefund



This is a great article about AudioCodes (AUDC).  The company is involved with internet packet delivery in various forms such as gateways, routers, and IP phones.  It is growing money year over year.  It has major partners in Microsoft, Broadsoft, Avaya, and others.  Broadsoft alone is involved with 600 service providers, and BSFT is one of the pillars of AudioCodes.  AUDC is a good investment as part of a diversified portfolio.




ARMOUR: Time To Get Going - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (NYSE:ARR) | Seeking Alpha

ARMOUR: Time To Get Going - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (NYSE:ARR) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article about Armour Residential (ARR).  I own shares of the company, and I plan to buy more in the near future. The 14% dividend is safe, and you get paid on a monthly basis.  I believe the stock market in general is getting to the point of only single-digit returns, and ARR will easily beat the market under those conditions.


Thursday, August 28, 2014

Parkinson's Breakthrough: Researchers Discover Spice Stops Disease Progression

Parkinson's Breakthrough: Researchers Discover Spice Stops Disease Progression



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  Cinnamon turns out to be an inhibitor of Parkinson's disease. This is great news.  The spice can also be used to reduce triglycerides, stop other types of nerve damage like MS in addition to Parkinson's, and it can help reverse diabetes.



Staying up with news on the benefits of herbs and spices can improve your quality of life as well as longevity.  For some book reviews on how to help yourself with supplements, you could go to www.cinnamin.net and read about books like Fats That Heal Fats That Kill and others.  For example, evening primrose oil can help prevent arthritis and stop nerve degeneration.  


Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Battle for Ukraine's southeast coast heats up

Battle for Ukraine's southeast coast heats up



This is a story with many details that the Ukraine conflict is far from over.  With the stock market teetering at a top, continuing bad news from Ukraine could cause a downturn in stocks.  The next question would be how far stocks would fall.  I am currently making money on government bonds through TLT and TMF because many people and institutions don't trust the stock market.  Therefore, bonds are being bought even on days when the market makes a new high on low volume.


Quantum | Materials Corp

Quantum | Materials Corp



Here is a very interesting company (QTMM) that may be a great speculative buy.  You could have made five times your money in the last few months being invested in Quantum Materials.  At 23 cents per share, though, the company still has a long way to go in the nano material and solar spaces.  They are actually selling products now, too.  I plan to buy QTMM tomorrow, and I will probably continue to buy shares whenever I get new money.  I believe Quantum Materials is one of the few penny stocks that could make you a fortune.


Sunday, August 24, 2014

Why I'm Passing On Mason Graphite - Mason Graphite Inc. (OTCMKTS:MGPHF) | Seeking Alpha

Why I'm Passing On Mason Graphite - Mason Graphite Inc. (OTCMKTS:MGPHF) | Seeking Alpha



As you probably know, graphite can be used in making electrodes for the batteries of electric powered vehicles.  We are also seeing a great expansion in sales of electric and hybrid electric cars.  For example, Tesla and Toyota are popular for electric and hybrid cars respectively.  So, the graphite miners matter a lot as long as electric car sales are growing.



The author of this article talks about Mason Graphite primarily, and he does not think Mason offers a lot of upside potential.  Focus Graphite and Northern Graphite are probably better choices in the graphite space.  Focus already has sales of its graphite locked up with a Chinese company contract.  Northern is the closest graphite miner to major roads, and transportation costs will be a big factor in the success or failure of graphite miners.  Graphite stocks could be one of your best choices in a lackluster stock market as long as you invest in the right company at the right time.


Saturday, August 23, 2014

iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF Is A Great Way To Diversify - iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF (NYSEARCA:AOA) | Seeking Alpha

iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF Is A Great Way To Diversify - iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF (NYSEARCA:AOA) | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about AOA, iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF.  The name "aggressive" is somewhat misleading because AOA is actually a "fund of funds" including the S&P 500 (IVV), global stocks, and bonds.  Owning this stock is an excellent way to diversify globally and protect yourself.  Probably only an outright bear market would sent this broad fund down.  It has gained over 13% in the last 12 months although it is questionable how long it will have double digit gains.  I believe it will beat the S&P 500 alone, though, and I think it is great for a diversified portfolio.  I also recommend double-digit income stocks like CEFL, MORL, and ROYT.


Pacific Coast Oil Trust: Regulatory Fears Unfounded, While Units Yield 15% And Sell At A Discount - Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE:ROYT) | Seeking Alpha

Pacific Coast Oil Trust: Regulatory Fears Unfounded, While Units Yield 15% And Sell At A Discount - Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE:ROYT) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article on Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT).  The company operates stable oil fields in California, but the stock price has been negatively impacted due to environmental concerns which will most likely not prevail against the company.  Therefore, the 15% dividend which is distributed on a monthly basis is probably safe, and there will probably be a future capital gain as well.  Moreover, since the stock market is mostly topped out, you will probably only make single digit returns in the future in a lot of stocks.  ROYT is a great opportunity for a double-digit gain, and I plan to buy the stock very soon.


What We Can Learn From Margin Levels In The Stock Market | Seeking Alpha

What We Can Learn From Margin Levels In The Stock Market | Seeking Alpha



This is an interesting article about how margin calls affect the stock market.  When the next bear market finally arrives, broker margin calls will cause an avalanche decline in the market.  As the author noted, margin peaks can also predict an imminent bear market, and that is where we are now.  People are leveraged to squeeze all they can out of small general stock market gains.  Eventually, the gains will be so small that bonds will be more attractive, and then the market will fall as people sell stocks aggressively.

 

Thursday, August 21, 2014

The Not So Mysterious Lofty Stock Market Elevations | Seeking Alpha

The Not So Mysterious Lofty Stock Market Elevations | Seeking Alpha



Here is a balanced bullish article about how we don't need to panic, but we need to get used to single digit returns for stocks at the current elevated levels.  When the ten-year treasury bond starts paying 4%, that will be a fairly certain sign of the top.  By the time that situation occurs, the gain on stocks will probably be about 4% also, and bonds will be a lot safer.  Investors are already starting to buy long term bonds.  This can be seen in TLT and TMF which I own.  Currently, stocks can still go up on low volume while bonds go up at the same time on low volume.  The safest stock to own now is OEF, the S&P 100 ETF, and I own it also as well as dividend stocks.


Tuesday, August 19, 2014

The Bull Market In Equities Has A Long Way To Run | Seeking Alpha

The Bull Market In Equities Has A Long Way To Run | Seeking Alpha



As usual, the bulls are able to present evidence that stocks can continue to rise for quite a while.  This article gives several reasons why the bull market will continue.  I would only buy the best stocks on dips, though.  I am currently around 75% long and 25% treasury bonds.  With this mix, I have been able to advance on most days.  I will continue to monitor both bull and bear cases and invest accordingly.  We must take a certain amount of risk in order to accumulate significant wealth.  Then, on the other hand, we need to protect our wealth as much as possible to prevent large losses.


Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha



This is a great article about being able to predict stock market tops when margin debt has topped out and is declining.  The smart money usually knows when to get out of stocks.  The author presented some very good charts which showed that a margin debt peak preceded the start of a bear market by a short period of time.  A number of sources have talked about a recent decline in margin debt, but we don't know yet if margin debt is up again since global problems have currently subsided.  Also, one other difference in 2014 is that the S&P 500 is still amazingly climbing.  Stocks are not rolling over as they did at previous tops.  So, we will need to continue to monitor margin debt, stock patterns, and other indicators to know when to head for the exits.


Why Tesla Stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) Will Double in the Next 12 Months

Why Tesla Stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) Will Double in the Next 12 Months



Keith Fitz-Gerald has written an excellent article on why Tesla could double in the next 12 months.  It was only last month that Tesla was around $220 per share, and it has gained $36 since then.  Tesla's stock will continue to rise along with its car sales, battery charger installations, and its Gigafactory battery plant.  Good news from each of these areas will push Tesla's price higher, and when they achieve their $35,000 electric car, the stock will go parabolic.  Tesla is probably worth buying at any point around $256 per share or lower. The dips will probably be bought swiftly on Tesla, and your only mistake may be not getting in soon enough.

Monday, August 18, 2014

A Weird All-Long Strategy | Seeking Alpha

A Weird All-Long Strategy | Seeking Alpha



Harry Long has written another very good article about how to make a lot of money in the stock market by being essentially long and short at the same time.  The short component involves the 3x long-term bonds ETF called TMF at 45% of the portfolio with VXX, the volatility ETF, being 5%.  The long component involves 50% SPXL, the 3x S&P 500 ETF.  This portfolio would have gained more than 400% since April 2009, and this would have beaten the S&P 500 by almost 3 times.



Part of the strategy involves re-balancing weekly to maintain the proper ratios.  For example, VXX can ruin you because of its constant decay, but if you take profits while you have them, the system could work.  Also, XIV, the inverse volatility index is currently beating SPXL.  So, you might make more money putting 50% of your money on XIV rather than SPXL.  The 3x long S&P ETF has been meager in its profits lately, but it definitely worked well since 2009.  Click on the chart below to expand it.



Saturday, August 16, 2014

Treasury Movements Signal Long-Run Doubt - ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:UST) | Seeking Alpha

Treasury Movements Signal Long-Run Doubt - ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:UST) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an important article about comparisons of 10-year and 2-year treasury yields.  UST, a 7-10 year government bond ETF,  has gained more than 10% in the past year, and TLT, the 20+ year bond ETF, has also increased more than 10%.  People are fleeing to the safety of government bonds because they don't trust the stock market.  Of course, when bond prices rise, the yields fall, and the 10-year bond yield was at 2.34% on Friday, August 15.



The 2-year yield has been staying around .4%, but the 10-year bond yield is falling in that direction although the two yields will probably not meet as long as Federal Reserve rates are low.  If the spread was increasing, that would indicate a buying opportunity for stocks, but we have the opposite situation presently.  Expansion of stocks has occurred when the 10-2 spread was more than 2%, but it is now less than 2% with the Friday 2-year yield at .42%.  The U.S. Treasury has a website page where the interest rates can be viewed together.  So, we need to be careful about owning a lot of stocks now, and my government bond holdings equal 24% of my portfolio currently.


Canadian Edge

Canadian Edge



This is an excellent article about boom times in Alberta, Canada.  The western part of Canada is similar to the great expansion in North Dakota where unemployment is almost non-existent.  Whoever wants to work can easily find a job which pays good wages as well.  The oil and gas there exceeds our North Dakota by many times also.  This article is actually an advertisement for a winning newsletter, but whether you subscribe to the newsletter or not, you can glean ideas for investing in Canada from the free information in the article.




SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC Details - Whalewisdom

SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC Details - Whalewisdom



Here is some great information at WhaleWisdom.com where the website talks about the latest 13F filings from George Soros, one of the world's greatest investors.  Presently, Soros is betting mostly against the stock market although he still has several long positions.  In addition, you can look for other 13F filings from other fund groups by clicking on the 13F tab of the website top navigation bar. WhaleWisdom.com should be one of your favorite website bookmarks because the site contains an easy way to search for 13F filings as opposed to going to the SEC website which can be more complicated when you are searching for information.


Friday, August 15, 2014

Build A 'Whatever Happens' Portfolio... Now | Seeking Alpha

Build A 'Whatever Happens' Portfolio... Now | Seeking Alpha



Joseph Shaefer has written an outstanding article on how to be prepared for whatever happens.  I agree 100% with Joseph's outlook for stocks and portfolio protection procedures although we differ on asset selections.  He did not mention TLT, the long-term government bond ETF, as a defensive measure, and it is my largest holding. However, the author has other good bond selections such as PCY, the sovereign debt ETF.  The stock is up around 10% during the past year along with a 4.5% dividend.  I'll probably buy PCY myself for more bond diversification in my portfolio.



Joseph brought up some very good points on capital preservation. People bash holding cash because inflation erodes it, but -2% for cash is better than -50% for stocks in a major bear market.  It also takes years to get that loss back.  What if the crash happens right when you plan to retire, and you are unprepared for it?



People also don't like holding stable bonds which pay only 2% or 3%, but the interest offsets inflation, and you have more protection than with stocks.  BND, the Vanguard Total Bond ETF, is a very good choice.  It will drop a little when stocks enter a bear market, but it will recover a whole lot faster than stocks.  No matter which bond fund you choose, an investor always needs to have a significant allocation for bonds so that you will be prepared for whatever happens and so you won't lose half of your money at possibly a very bad time.

 

TRI Pointe Appears Compelling After Absorbing Weyerhaeuser's Homebuilder - TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH) | Seeking Alpha

TRI Pointe Appears Compelling After Absorbing Weyerhaeuser's Homebuilder - TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very interesting article about Tri Pointe Homes (TPH).  The author made some good points about the future success of TPH.  For example, Tri Pointe will now be about as large as Ryland and Standard Pacific.  Filing4.com also reported today that two Tri Pointe insiders loaded up on shares on August 14, and usually insiders only buy when they are convinced they will make money.  The only drawbacks are uncertainty in the homebuilding sector and overvalued stocks in the market as a whole.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

3 Potential Liquidity Supports To Keep Bull Market Alive | Seeking Alpha

3 Potential Liquidity Supports To Keep Bull Market Alive | Seeking Alpha



Chris Puplava has written an excellent article about how the bull market could keep going.  He talked about different spigots of liquidity such as the Federal Reserve, bank credit, and margin credit. When the Federal Reserve closes its spigot soon, other sources of liquidity could stay open.



Another concept Chris discussed is how sector rotation keeps bull markets alive.  Even after the stock market peak in 2007, the materials and energy sectors were able to keep part of the stock market alive for the first half of 2008.  The energy sector is known for bullish trends from January to June in particular.  When sector rotations turn into bonds and cash, that is the time to worry.



Currently, commercial bank credit is increasing while the Federal Reserve stimulus is being withdrawn.  So, the stock market can keep going up.  There is no problem with the economy.  The Yen carry trade may also soon provide more liquidity since the Bank of Japan may soon devalue the Yen in order to contain its debt load over the next two years.






A Comprehensive Analysis Of The Global X Social Media Index ETF And A Long-Short Strategy - Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL) | Seeking Alpha

A Comprehensive Analysis Of The Global X Social Media Index ETF And A Long-Short Strategy - Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL) | Seeking Alpha



This is a great article about the Social Media Index (SOCL) and the underlying companies in the index.  The author discussed several of the winners and losers of the group, and he suggested that you would be better off going long on the best names rather than buying the ETF. He spoke highly of Facebook (FB), and I also own stock in the company.  He spoke well of TenCent Holdings (TCEHY), and I bought some of it today.  A third stock that the author recommended was YY, and I plan to buy YY in the next few weeks.  So, this is a very informative article about the good and bad aspects of the companies that comprise the SOCL ETF.


Wednesday, August 13, 2014

4 signs this bull market is on its last legs- MSN Money

4 signs this bull market is on its last legs- MSN Money



Here is an outstanding article about four signs that the bull market will probably soon end.  It could last several months or a year longer, but we need to pay attention to the signs of a top.  The rallies fizzle quickly and are happening with low volume.  Secondly, key technical levels are being broken.  Third, we are having divergences in important indicators.  Not all stocks are rising anymore.  Fourth, we have a lot of complacency like people believing that stocks can keep going up in spite of many warning signs to the contrary.  It is time to be defensive with at least half of your portfolio in my opinion. Personally, around 26% of my portfolio involves very strong stocks, and I have 24% in TLT, the long-term government bond ETF, and TMF, which is a 3x long-term government bond ETF.



Monday, August 11, 2014

Colgate Total Ingredient Linked to Hormones, Cancer Spotlights FDA Process: Bloomberg Business News - MSN Money

Colgate Total Ingredient Linked to Hormones, Cancer Spotlights FDA Process: Bloomberg Business News - MSN Money



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  Today, I saw this article about possible harmful effects of Colgate Total toothpaste.  The triclosan chemical found in the toothpaste is suspected of causing cancer.  To be on the safe side, you may want to use the Crest brand which claims to be free of triclosan. Another alternative is to use the regular simple Colgate Cavity Protection toothpaste which does not contain triclosan.  I quit using Total around nine years ago when I noticed an unusual lesion in my mouth, and it is now gone.  I have been using the safer Colgate Cavity Protection since then, and it seems to be working okay.  So, I think safety first is what we should seek rather than trying to clean our teeth with a harmful chemical.


Sunday, August 10, 2014

Orchid Island Is A Monthly Dividend Payer Of 15% - Orchid Island Capital (NYSEMKT:ORC) | Seeking Alpha

Orchid Island Is A Monthly Dividend Payer Of 15% - Orchid Island Capital (NYSEMKT:ORC) | Seeking Alpha



This is a good article about another REIT that pays over 15% per year with monthly distributions.  Of course, everybody knows REIT stocks will have trouble when interest rates rise, but we are not there yet. We need to make money while we can, and quality REIT stocks will most likely beat the S&P 500 in 2014 and 2015.  After 2015, I expect we may be in another bear market if it does not happen before then. We are due for a big correction at any time.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Dangerous Summer: Risk-Off Is On Again | Seeking Alpha

Dangerous Summer: Risk-Off Is On Again | Seeking Alpha



James Picerno has written an outstanding article about stock market danger based on escalating bad relations with Russia along with an excellent chart of the 10-year treasury yield which shows a risk-off signal for owning stocks.  As I have mentioned in other blog articles, the best way to play a risk-off situation is to own TLT, the long term treasury bond ETF.  If you will look at Picerno's treasury yield chart, you will see that this indicator follows closely with what is happening in the stock market.  For example, one of the low points on the treasury yield chart corresponds to July 31, 2014 when the Dow fell over 300 points.  So, we have to be careful in the stock market.


How New Gold Will Go From 400,000 Ounces To 1.2 Million Ounces Of Gold Production - New Gold Inc (NYSEMKT:NGD) | Seeking Alpha

How New Gold Will Go From 400,000 Ounces To 1.2 Million Ounces Of Gold Production - New Gold Inc (NYSEMKT:NGD) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article on New Gold (NGD).  The low production costs of New Gold makes it one of the best gold buys available.  They can easily make a significant profit with gold selling at $1300 per ounce. I believe the price of gold can go higher because of global concerns over an aggressive Russia.  The stock market in general is also topped out.  So, New Gold may be one of the few stocks where you will be able to make some money in the next year or two.

 

Road Map 2011 - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

Road Map 2011 - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha



Owen Williams has written a very interesting article comparing 2011 to 2014.  You may recall that 2011 had a 20% correction in August and September.  We could possibly expect the same scenario in 2014 because there is a lot of trouble in the world, and the smart money is buying long term government bonds.  The only question in my mind is whether it will be a 20% correction or an all out bear market of -40 to -50%.



Mr. Williams is correct that bear markets usually start when we have high interest rates, and that is not the case today.  Since we have low interest rates now, the author is probably right that we are just in for a big correction.  TLT is the way to make money in the correction, and if it turns into a vicious bear, you will make even more money. Whichever way the market goes, you should be skeptical about holding a lot of stocks in the present situation.


Financial Markets At Critical Juncture: Could A Crash Eventually Happen? | Seeking Alpha

Financial Markets At Critical Juncture: Could A Crash Eventually Happen? | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article on why the stock market is in trouble.  Do not be deceived by the stock market rallies.  The stock market highs will start getting lower.  Not only are stocks overvalued, but we are having strife with Russia that shows no signs of ending.  The food and energy sanctions on both sides will bring down many companies, and this will bring down the economy.  Then, when the economy falls, stocks will fall.



The author mentioned that the Dow Jones Industrials and high yield bonds (HYG) have recently tested their 200 day moving averages. This is an ominous sign, and stocks could easily roll over from here. TLT, the long term government bonds ETF, is the best place to be now along with cash.  TLT pays a small monthly dividend, and the stock has very little downside due to global problems and overextended stocks.  TLT also has the possibility of double-digit gains when the market starts falling in earnest.  I am buying more of the stock on Monday, and it will become my biggest holding.


Thursday, August 7, 2014

The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets | Seeking Alpha

The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article on how the last two bear markets have been a series of gradual declines that turned into more than 50% downside to the final bottom.  He presented excellent charts to show how deceiving the gradual decline was.  We must have the discipline to take profits when we have them and cut our losses short with reasonable stop-loss orders.



No one knows the future for certain, but we can act on what we have seen before.  Lower highs and lower lows are definite bad signs.  The global unrest with Russia and sanctions on both sides is unprecedented since the Cold War ended.  Since the world is a global economy, how long will it take before companies have to lay people off because of less business?  I hold TLT, TMF, and cash in case the bull market turns into a bear, and I have already closed out some of my long positions that have not held up well lately.  We must have some kind of exit plan, or we will be cut in half again like we experienced in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.

 

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Escalation Not Reconciliation Prevails | Seeking Alpha

Escalation Not Reconciliation Prevails | Seeking Alpha



This is a bearish article that should be taken seriously since global tensions have not gone away, and the S&P is now declining along with small caps.  The economy still looks good currently, but the Federal Reserve could cause an economic downturn if they are not careful.  It is also very possible for stocks to go down before a recession arrives. This happened in the year 2000 while the short 2001 recession was in the distance.  So, we should load up on defensive stocks like BIV, BND, TLT, TMF, and cash.


Additional Expressions of Interest in Liberty Star’s Copper-Gold-REEs Hay Mountain Project, Southeast Arizona and Uranium Assets at North Pipes, Arizona | Business Wire

Additional Expressions of Interest in Liberty Star’s Copper-Gold-REEs Hay Mountain Project, Southeast Arizona and Uranium Assets at North Pipes, Arizona | Business Wire



Here is an article on investors who are interested in Liberty Star (LBSR).  I own shares of the company myself, but it is a speculative investment that will probably take months or years to pay off significantly.  Liberty Star has good prospects for copper, uranium, and rare earth minerals in Arizona.  I have been involved with the company for 11 years, and investors should be aware that it takes years for a mining company to develop its true potential.  The copper alone probably makes Liberty Star a good investment if you have the time to wait.  

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Here It Is, The Big Sell-Off... Has Been Wrong The Past 169 Times | Seeking Alpha

Here It Is, The Big Sell-Off... Has Been Wrong The Past 169 Times | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article about how the bears are usually wrong about stock market corrections.  Since this bull market started, we have experienced 169 pullbacks of 1% or more.  According to the author, if you had bought all the dips of -1% on the S&P 500, you would have been up almost 10% 90 days later.  How can this be?  I don't know, but we need to go with the flow.  One reason for the stock market constantly rebounding is that the economy is doing well according to Federal Reserve statistics.  If the economy ever falters, though, the bears will finally be right, but that time is probably months away.


Deteriorating Breadth Warned Of Pullback, Now Hinting At Near-Term Bottom | Seeking Alpha

Deteriorating Breadth Warned Of Pullback, Now Hinting At Near-Term Bottom | Seeking Alpha



Chris Puplava has written a very good article about why the July stock market decline is probably at a bottom now.  He shared oversold indicators that show the market will probably rebound. Also, he talked about Federal Reserve statistics that clearly demonstrate that the economy is doing better now than ever.  For example, the Philly Fed States Leading Index is 92% green meaning that the economy is expected to boom during the next six months. He contrasted that with a 2011 Philly Fed chart that looked terrible.  So, it is time to buy into stocks again for the rest of the bull run. However, if you saw some unusually weak stocks in your portfolio during the pullback, you need to reduce or sell the questionable stocks.

iShares S&P 100 ETF | OEF

iShares S&P 100 ETF | OEF



This is a link to the iShares S&P 100 (OEF) website.  This ETF holds the top 100 stocks, and it is probably the safest stock you can buy. During the July 1 to August 1, 2014 period when most indexes fell significantly due to a huge Dow loss of more than 300 points on July 31 and other smaller losses, OEF only declined a fraction of 1%.  The S&P 100 contains AAPL, XOM, MSFT, JNJ, PG, GE, BRK.B, and other quality companies.  So, you will get instant diversification among the strongest companies with OEF.  This will greatly limit your downside when stocks sell off, but you will still get a good return when the market advances.


Nothing Can Stop Facebook Now - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha

Nothing Can Stop Facebook Now - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about Facebook (FB) and the future of advertising.  Mobile advertising is expected to grow 83% in the next year, and Facebook will be at the front of the pack in this area.  The company's revenue increased 61% in the past year.  Facebook also had earnings per share of 42 cents versus 32 cents that was expected. Mobile ad revenue increased 151% in the past year.  Mobile active users are also growing over 30%.

PIMCO’s Bill Gross names ‘the only safe haven’ in this market - Yahoo Finance

PIMCO’s Bill Gross names ‘the only safe haven’ in this market - Yahoo Finance



Here is a great article by Bill Gross of Pimco,  the bond king, in which he talks about the strangeness of today's stock market in the wake of the July 31, 2014 -300 points down day on the Dow.  Bonds unusually fell along with stocks that day, including U.S. and German bonds.  The economic war with Russia and the default of Argentina is causing investors to think that holding bonds is not worth it.



CEFL, a 2x closed-end fund comprised of a lot of bonds, fell around 6% for the week.  That fall pretty much negates the 16% dividend of the stock because what if it falls 6% for every -300 down day on the Dow?  The stock is probably not worth holding anymore.  Bill Gross thinks that the yield of U.S. bonds may be the only safe haven in this unusual and unpredictable market.