Bull or Bear

Chris Puplava at Seeking Alpha has written an outstanding article on how to tell if the recent large stock market sell-off is the beginning of a bear market or if the bull market will resume.  The most important indicator that he discussed was the NYSE 200 day average line for NYSE stocks.  Whenever this chart reaches the 30% region or lower, the market could be in extreme danger.  If stocks bounce off the bottom of a major sell-off back above 50% on this indicator, then the market is still bullish.  If stocks cannot get back above the 50% level, then we are going into a bear market. 

Another index that Chris discussed was the Nasdaq summation index, $NASI.  If this indicator falls below -500 and stays there, this is a second reliable indicator that we are going into a bear market.  If this indicator gets back above +500, that is a bullish sign.  November and December are the best two months of the year for stocks also.  One reason for this is that companies like to repurchase shares during these two months, and big institutions can easily move the market higher.  We definitely need to be cautious in the market, and the strongest stocks like Facebook are the safest.  After December though, I may sell FB because I believe 2015 will be even more turbulent than 2014.

Epic4Health

As I occasionally do, I will talk about health topics as well as the stock market.  Epic4Health has a good article on Coenzyme Q10.  This supplement has been used for many years for heart health.  It energizes the body as well as the heart.  Thus, you should not take COQ10 before bed unless you are planning to have sex or otherwise stay up.  You should also take it with a meal for better absorption.  The article in the link above says that Coenzyme Q10 is safe at high doses, too.  300 mg per day has been tested successfully in humans, and animal studies go much higher.

Ebola Drugs

Several Ebola drug companies have gained double-digit percents in their stock prices recently.  Chimerix (CMRX) claims to have the only approved drug for fighting an active case of Ebola.  NewLink Genetics (NLNK) is the front-runner for an Ebola vaccine, and they have the backing of the Canadian government.  I plan to buy these companies in the near future when the volatility becomes less.

Currently, most of my money is tied up in stocks that will most likely be involved in a powerful November-December rally, stocks like Facebook (FB), Skyworks (SWKS), and MIDU, the mid-cap 3x ETF.  I don't want to sell these stocks prematurely before I have gained significantly.  So, new money and money from losers is probably what I will use for buying the Ebola drug companies initially.  Ticker symbols of other drug companies to watch are IBIO, TKMR, BCRX, SRPT, NVAX, INO, and NNVC.

Market Commentary: Markets Close In The Red, Further Weakness Is Seen

Market Commentary: Markets Close In The Red, Further Weakness Is Seen



The stock market as measured by the S&P has dropped around 6.1% in the past few weeks, and this exceeds the 5.5% decline that we saw in February.  Negative retail sales is one area that was blamed for today's loss since we are primarily a consumer driven economy.  Of course, November and December should be strong due to holiday sales.  So, I am buying strong stocks now like Intel and Facebook, but I will probably reduce them near the end of December because volatility is the new paradigm which we have not seen to this extent since August of 2011.



In his article, Gary shows the NYA index breaking its lower Bollinger bands along with institutional investors who are selling up trends.  He believes we will experience more selling.   On the positive side, though, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) has gone from more than -60 to -38 as of today's close.  So, we are getting a bounce off the bottom.  Some traders reportedly called the bottom today also when the Dow was down more than 300 points.  I am just trying to hold on another two months so that I can reduce my portfolio when we are back near the year's high point.

Survive Ebola: Become a “White Blood Cell” For Mankind

Survive Ebola: Become a “White Blood Cell” For Mankind



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  This is an outstanding article about the Ebola virus and how you can defend yourself against it.  The author recommends selenium, magnesium, Vitamin C, baking soda, Vitamin D, glutathione, and iodine.  These supplements not only help against Ebola, but they can improve conditions against other viruses like those involved with flu and colds.

Market Commentary: Bad News As Markets Close Below Major supports

Market Commentary: Bad News As Markets Close Below Major supports



Here is an excellent article summarizing stock market conditions and indicators.  Gary believes we will get a bounce off the bottom sometime, and he suggested that the 50 day line crossing over the 100 day line could be the turning point to the upside.  Another important indicator is that $NYMO is at -61, and the stock market has a very good chance for reversal when the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is this low.  You may want to sell any long rallies, though.

This is the most dangerous stock market since 2008

This is the most dangerous stock market since 2008



This is a very important article which gives details of a stock market that is about to fall hard.  The only question is how low will it go?  Will it be -10%, -15%, -25%?  We have already violated the 200 day average lines.



On a positive spin, interest rates are still low, and the economy is not in a recession.  So, it probably won't be a 2008 bear market.  It will be something in between until the big boys decide the market has corrected enough to advance again.  In the meantime, TMF, the 3x government long term bond, ETF, has been working very well.  The bleeding seems to have stopped on Facebook (FB), too.  The last line of hope will be the typical November-December rallies.  After that, cash will probably be king.

 

SemiWiki - Samsung Profits Fall

SemiWiki - Samsung Profits Fall



Here is a good article at SemiWiki about why Samsung profits have fallen so dramatically.  They are getting stiff competition from Chinese companies.  It remains to be seen if Samsung can turn things around. SemiWiki has many other news articles that are worth reading also.

Stocks: The Most Important Week In 6 Years | Seeking Alpha

Stocks: The Most Important Week In 6 Years | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article assessing the state of the stock market.  I agree with Eric that we should get a bounce in stocks at these oversold levels.  However, the long term trend will be much harder to figure out.  I own Facebook, and I think it is one of the few stocks that will recover from this downturn.  In theory, we should only have a correction and not a bear market because the economy is doing okay and interest rates are still low.  When the ten-year treasury bond interest gets to 4%, that could be the final top for the market because stocks will die when interest is high.

Investors gird for scarier days in markets - Yahoo Finance

Investors gird for scarier days in markets - Yahoo Finance



Here is an excellent article about the stock market after a terrible 300+ drop in the Dow on Friday that put the index in the negative region for the year. The semiconductor index also fell so dramatically that you have to go all the way back to 2009 for results that bad.  People believe that semiconductors will remain down due to global economy concerns.  It would be best to stay out of semiconductor stocks until we see some chip companies reporting positive results.



In other news, government bonds received massive buying while stocks were sold off.  TMF, the 3x long bond ETF, is a good stock to buy during these times, and I own it.  Another point in the article is that the big boys are buying a lot of options while they exit stocks.  So, we definitely need to be defensive this month and maybe longer until we see the bottom of this correction.

3 Companies Working to Prevent an Ebola Outbreak

3 Companies Working to Prevent an Ebola Outbreak



This is a great article about the severe possible complications of the Ebola virus.  The author also mentioned three drug companies that could rise significantly if the Ebola disease gets more widespread.  Tekmira Pharma. (TKMR) has a drug which has already been used successfully on an Ebola patient.  The stock has gained more than three times in price in the past year.  I plan to buy TKMR tomorrow as part of a balanced portfolio. Moreover, since the stock market has experienced a severe downturn lately, biotech companies may be the only stocks that can go against the tide.

Market Commentary: DOW Down 273, SP500 Off 30, NASDAQ Off 70

Market Commentary: DOW Down 273, SP500 Off 30, NASDAQ Off 70



Here is an outstanding article about the triple digit loss of the Dow on October 7, 2014.  We may have further downside.  Even though the U.S. economy is doing okay, Europe is not doing well, and the rest of the world has the ability to affect the stock market.  Accumulating cash is a very good idea until the market turns around.  Then, the 3X mid-cap ETF, MIDU, might have a good November-December run.  The only question will be knowing where the bottom is for MIDU and the market.  If $NYMO hits -80 or greater, we should at least get an oversold bounce.