Monday, June 29, 2015

Cramer: Danger alert-don't buy on the market dip - Yahoo Finance

Cramer: Danger alert-don't buy on the market dip - Yahoo Finance



Jim Cramer has joined the bears over Greece and other problems in the world.  I agree with Jim 100% that you should not buy this dip.  The $NYMO indicator is only at -55 after a -350 down day on the Dow.  $NYMO will need to be probably be -80 or lower before it might be safe to buy the dip.  Then, even if you do buy stocks, it should only be a trade.  The Dow will probably be capped at around 18,000 for months to come.  That is where you should sell if you decide to buy any dips.

  

Grexit Panic Delivers Stocks’ Worst Beating Since 2013

Grexit Panic Delivers Stocks’ Worst Beating Since 2013



This is a very good article about how the bears triumphed on Greek Monday when the Dow fell -350 points.  Holding TVIX would have made you a 34% gain in one day.  Long term bonds are now in favor again in spite of a supposed bond bubble.  The Dow also closed below its 200 day average.  So, we should be buying bear protection stocks because the Greek situation is nowhere near over.  People have been downplaying this scenario for a long time, but the panic has begun as the day of reckoning really approaches.



  

Saturday, June 27, 2015

PureFunds

PureFunds



This is the website link for HACK, the cyber security ETF.  As I have mentioned before, I own the stock and I plan to buy more.  Computer security is an unstoppable future trend which will lead to higher investment gains than the general stock market.  HACK also owns the best names in the sector, and they post their top ten holdings on the home page.  For example, Palo Alto Networks, AVG, Vasco, Splunk, Infoblox, and Proofpoint are currently in the top ten.  This is a great way to invest in cyber security while not being overweighted too much in any one stock.


Cybersecurity stocks sell off following Fortinet downgrade - PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA:HACK) | Seeking Alpha

Cybersecurity stocks sell off following Fortinet downgrade - PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA:HACK) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a great article about why cyber security stocks sold off last week.  I still own HACK, the computer security ETF, because this is a long term trend.  I also plan to buy more on the pullback.  However, I did sell FEYE because it had too much volatility, and I agree with this report that it was overvalued.  If you think you have to sell security stocks, you should do it selectively or own HACK which will give you instant diversification in the sector.

HACK Surges With Rise In Cyber Crime - PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA:HACK) | Seeking Alpha

HACK Surges With Rise In Cyber Crime - PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA:HACK) | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about HACK, the cyber security ETF.  It has advanced 24% this year while the general stock market has not done much of anything.  I own HACK, and I plan to buy more.  Owning this ETF is also less stressful than owning individual security stocks because popular FEYE and CYBR are highly volatile.  You get wonderful diversification and safety in 31 cyber security stocks by owning HACK.

  

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? | Seeking Alpha

Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? | Seeking Alpha



DoctoRx has written an outstanding article on the biotech sector.  I agree 100% with the doctor that biotech stocks are worth a good portion of your portfolio.  I own XBI, the small cap biotech ETF, and BIB, the 2x leveraged ETF for large cap biotech stocks.  These two stocks have far outperformed the S&P 500 in the past year.



The author also talked about leading large cap and small cap stocks that are held in the respective ETFs.  He gave us reasons to expect that biotech stocks will continue to outperform the market.  I plan to buy more XBI and BIB when the stocks pull back.  The 89-day moving average was a great place to buy these stocks when they pulled back a lot at the end of April of this year.  You will be hard pressed to find better stock picks.





Wednesday, June 17, 2015

NXP Semi: Extremely Cheap Based On Realistic Targets - NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) | Seeking Alpha

NXP Semi: Extremely Cheap Based On Realistic Targets - NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very good article on NXPI.  The author believes the stock can reach $200 by 2018, and I agree.  This is also one of the few 100% gainers that will be possible in a topped out general stock market.  I own the stock and will probably buy more in the future.  In addition, NXPI has great value as a near-field chip making company because near-field devices are the wave of the future while card scanners will be declining.

 

Billionaire Ron Baron: THIS is keeping lid on stocks - Yahoo Finance

Billionaire Ron Baron: THIS is keeping lid on stocks - Yahoo Finance



This is a great article featuring Ron Baron where he reveals why there is a market cap on stocks.  Stocks are not going much higher because everybody is pricing in rising interest rates.  There is an old saying that when interest is low, stocks will grow, and when interest is high, stocks will die.  So, only the best stocks might get double digit returns while the S&P 500 will probably be stuck with single digit returns from now until the next bear market.



Another point Ron mentioned is that the Dow at 18,000 pretty much equals the GDP at 18 trillion dollars.  This means that stocks are not overpriced although gains will be slim.  He also said that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates fast because high rates will make it hard for the country to pay interest on debts.  Thus, we need to buy only "new highs" like AMBA which has more room to run or buy mispriced stocks like natural gas, UGAZ.  These two stocks are my biggest holdings.




Monday, June 15, 2015

10% Correction Coming to the S&P? Could Be 20% - TheStreet

10% Correction Coming to the S&P? Could Be 20% - TheStreet



Here is a great article about what kind of corrections we can expect at a stock market top that still has fuel from Federal Reserve help along with other central bankers in the world joining in.  As long as the economy is okay according to Fed statistics, any significant pullback should be bought.  I agree with the author that 3% to 9% corrections are what we can expect.  If the market declines more than this, we could be tipped into a bear market by margin selling and stampedes by everyone trying to exit at the same time.



CreateSpace Community: Resources: Twist

CreateSpace Community: Resources: Twist



As I occasionally do, I will write about subjects other than the stock market.  A good story plot is not easy to make.  First, you need to have a story line that no one has ever heard before.  In this way, people are pleasantly surprised at the story's climax.  Secondly, the plot must be interesting enough to hold the reader's attention until the end.  Thirdly, you must plant information throughout the story so that the conclusion is logical and yet still surprising.

  

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Cheat Sheets for Writing Body Language - Writers Write

Cheat Sheets for Writing Body Language - Writers Write



Here are some excellent tips if you ever plan to write a great American novel.  As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  Writing is one of my favorite interests along with owning stocks.  I have not yet figured out a good plot for a novel, but the body language tips by Amanda Patterson are really great.  An author must make a character look alive, and one way to do this is by body language.  Amanda's well-organized descriptive tables will help you to write more quickly since you won't have to reinvent the wheel on some things.

Applying A Dual Momentum Model To The IVY 10 Portfolio | Seeking Alpha

Applying A Dual Momentum Model To The IVY 10 Portfolio | Seeking Alpha



Lowell Herr has written an outstanding article about handily beating a traditional stocks-bonds portfolio with the Ivy 10 Portfolio from a book by Mebane Faber and Eric Richardson.  Lowell does a good job in explaining how the system works.  You buy the top two momentum stocks after a review every 33 days.  Then, you sell any stocks that are underperforming SHY, which is a short term bond ETF.  You don't want to lose any money although occasionally you will have slight losses.



Lowell's dual momentum ETF plan had an average compound gain of 14.7% over a 9 year period which included the 2008-2009 bear market.  Is your current portfolio beating this 15% compound return momentum plan?  I plan to allocate up to 20% of my portfolio to this plan over time.  It will be done gradually, though, because I already have some strategies that are working for my current portfolio.  As we get closer to the stock market top before the next bear market, Lowell's plan could easily beat the market during this time frame along with providing downside protection since stocks that underperform SHY will be sold.

 

Bulls Hiding Behind Bears | Seeking Alpha

Bulls Hiding Behind Bears | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written a very good article about how to make the best of bear markets.  It is like he said, the next bear market could come tomorrow or three years from now.  We need to have a plan to cover different scenarios.



First, when the bear does arrive, there will be many signs and ample time to get most of your money to safety.  Not all sectors will immediately decline.  Staples, XLP, will be one of the last sectors to fall.  Several short ETFs can also make you a lot of money on the trip down:  SH, DXD, SQQQ, FAZ, SDOW, and TZA.



Secondly, Eric mentioned that there will be double-digit tradeable rallies a number of times while going to the bottom.  $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, can show you when to buy oversold conditions, such as -60 or lower on the chart.  Just be certain that you buy quality stocks or indexes for the rallies, and sell once you are 10% up to assure you make a profit.





Monday, June 8, 2015

The #1 Stock In The World - VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (NASDAQ:XIV) | Seeking Alpha

The #1 Stock In The World - VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (NASDAQ:XIV) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an excellent article about why XIV, the low volatility index, should be your number one stock.  I agree with Chris DeMuth 100%.  As long as the economy shows no immediate signs of a recession, people will buy stocks over bonds even if stocks are expensive.



XIV has gained 35% over the last three months in spite of stock market uncertainty and many down days.  XIV should have been your best buy in the fall of 2011 when the market fell around 20% due to the Congressional partisan budget battles.  Another big buying point would have been at the first part of February in 2015 when the 10-year bond interest fell to 1.67% while the economy was just going through the winter blues.  Basically, we need to buy XIV whenever the 10-year bond interest is 2% or less.  Then, sell XIV when interest hits 3% if you just want to trade the stock.



  

Friday, June 5, 2015

Can Yacon Syrup Really Help You Lose Weight? An Objective Look

Can Yacon Syrup Really Help You Lose Weight? An Objective Look



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  The link above is for a website which talks about yacon, a South American tuber that supposedly promotes weight loss and other benefits.  The results probably depend on how much yacon you eat.  However, several impressive results occurred in addition to weight loss such as lower blood sugar, decreased LDL cholesterol, and improved bowel movements.  I am starting to use yacon capsules myself, and I have not seen any bad effects.  Time will tell if the good benefits occur while I continue to take the capsules on a daily basis.


Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Cramer Remix: An amazing stock not done rallying

Cramer Remix: An amazing stock not done rallying



Here is a very good article about Jim Cramer's views on various parts of the stock market.  He believes in playing it safe as well as going for home run stocks.  For example, Jim has always recommended that your first $10,000 investment should be in a broad market fund like the S&P 500.  I also like Vanguard's total market fund VTI.  In this way, a good portion of your money will be protected through automatic diversity rather than being devastated by a bad single stock pick.



Secondly, I believe a person should have ten percent invested in a broad bond fund.  Naturally, it will be disappointing sometimes when the general market handily beats the bond fund, but you will sleep better at night knowing that your bond fund is not subjected to the same volatility and huge bear market drops that occur with stocks.  I like Vanguard's BND fund for maximum stability, and I like PFN and DHY for higher yields while being invested in bonds.



Thirdly, I agree 100% with Cramer that the hottest stock in the market right now is Ambarella (AMBA).  I own the stock, and I plan to buy more.  They make the chips which go in GoPro cameras as well as chips for competitor companies.  Now, the camera industry is involved with drones as well as traditional uses.  The sky is the limit for AMBA, and a person should have up to forty percent of his or her portfolio in hot individual stocks.  This is also what makes the stock market so interesting if you are able to pick the right stocks. 



Fourth, utility stocks were also discussed in the article.  These are often picked for a higher dividend than low-paying bonds, but you can lose money on your principal amount if you are in utility stocks at the wrong time.  The article suggests that you should buy utility stocks after the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates.


4 Drinks That Are Healthier Than Water (Or Close To It!)

4 Drinks That Are Healthier Than Water (Or Close To It!)



As I occasionally do, I will talk about other subjects in addition to the stock market.  The above link is for an excellent article on four drinks that produce benefits as good or better than water.  Green tea, coconut oil, beer, and milk all made the list.  I've tried to drink three glasses of milk each day for many years, and I am convinced it has prevented me from having broken bones.  Now, milk is being promoted for glutathione, a powerful antioxidant that helps prevent brain damage from free radicals.  So, we need to add some of these great drinks to our diet just like we have always known that plenty of water is beneficial.

 

Monday, June 1, 2015

The most expensive weapons system of all time is about to make its debut

The most expensive weapons system of all time is about to make its debut



This is a great article about why Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a buy.  The company has a PE of 17 while it stands to make many billions of dollars more on F-35 jets for three branches of the U.S. military organization.  Admittedly, the stock price is off its recent high of over $200, but few stocks offer the potential gain that LMT has.