Stock Market and Bond Bubbles

There is no question that the stock market is overbought, but it is currently more attractive than low-yielding bonds.  I believe that stocks will gradually melt up until the ten-year bond yield gets to around 4%.  At that point, the stock market will become very shaky. High borrowing costs will lead to less business growth and fewer houses being bought.  This will eventually lead to another recession, and that will burst the stock bubble.  Also, when the ten-year bond gets to around 4%, investors will prefer the security of bonds over stocks, and the exodus back into bonds will cause a downward avalanche for the stock market.