Guideposts Can Assist With Risk Management In Uncertain Market | Seeking Alpha
Chris Ciovacco has written a very good article about how to know when you should short the stock market. He showed a chart comparing the S&P 500 long versus SH, the S&P 500 short. You can view this relationship at www.stockcharts.com through the symbols SPY:SH. If the S&P 500 falls below the 3-day and 5-day EMA lines, then it is time to short the market if other factors point to a short also.
Chris mentioned that if the S&P 500 falls through a flat 50-day average line, that is a market short signal as well. The key is what kind of slope the 50-day line has when the S&P drops below it. Another factor in shorting the market would be bad economic conditions. Currently, we don't have a problem here. One other parameter would be global troubles. We still have a problem with Russia over Ukraine's independence. Overall, I doubt we will have a bear market in the short term, but we could have a significant pullback.
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