BND - Capital Preservation

In these uncertain times, some people might want to consider capital preservation rather than chasing after stocks.  Certainly, if you have already acquired most of your retirement nest egg you will want to protect it.  BND, Vanguard's intermediate-term bond ETF, is the way to go if you want safety and a little interest along the way.  In 2014 BND has not varied much at all from its $82 price tag.  Then, if you go all the way back to the worst part of the 2008-2009 bear market, BND only dipped down to $70 at its worst point, and it immediately zoomed back above $75 per share in no time at all.

This is what I call capital preservation.  BND has a very low expense ratio of .08%, and the fund has over 15,000 holdings.  You also currently get 2.5% interest each year, and you are paid monthly. Intermediate-term bonds are less sensitive to interest rates, too. You have probably heard of the traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds ratio, but I would like to mention another plan.  Take your age and invest that percentage in bonds.  A 20 year old would have 20% bonds while a 60 year old should be 60% in bonds.  You never want to lose most of your money in the stock market especially if you are on the verge of retirement.  Click on the chart below to expand it.

VTI and XLK

The bull market continues to run on, but many people are being cautious about it.  I own  TMF, a 3x 20+ year treasury bond ETF, as a precaution, but most of my money remains in stocks.  Two dividend stocks that I own are CEFL, a 2x closed-end fund, and MORL, a 2x REIT fund.  These two stocks are on the way to 17% and 20% gains in the next year.  They also pay dividends on a monthly basis.

However, I believe in a diversified portfolio.  What other stocks can I own that might make around 20% in the next 12 months?  VTI, Vanguard's total market ETF, is a stock that made 23% in the past year.  Some of the top ten holdings are AAPL, XOM, MSFT, GOOG, CVX, and BRK.A.  So, here is a stock that will probably make another double-digit return if stocks keep going up.

XLK, the technology select sector ETF, is up 25% in the past year. Some of the top ten holdings are AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, QCOM, VZ, and T.  Therefore, XLK will probably work as a good investment if the stock market continues higher.  You also have excellent diversification among tech stocks.  We need to make as much money as possible while stocks are rising because sooner or later the music will stop.  Then, when the next bear market starts, we will probably be in defensive stocks or on the sidelines until the market bottoms again. We will basically lose time until the coast is clear again.  Thus, we need to be concerned about making money while the sun shines to meet our retirement goals in the time we are given.

The Well-Oiled Cash Flow Machine Continues To Perform Beyond Expectations | Seeking Alpha

The Well-Oiled Cash Flow Machine Continues To Perform Beyond Expectations | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article that lists all the great dividend stocks that I own or might be interested in buying.  The author, Cash King, is making around $2,000 per month in dividends while owning a safe and diversified portfolio.  He probably won't need to sell anything unless we have a major bear market.



Two stocks that Cash King and I both own are CEFL, a 2x closed-end fund ETF, and MORL, a 2x REIT ETF.  I highly recommend both of these stocks.  Both stocks pay more than 15% each year, and you get paid on a monthly basis.  Dividend stocks like these are very important for a diversified portfolio while you wait to see what the stock market does next.  You will make gains with these dividend stocks without having to wonder about whether your portfolio will be profitable.  You will make money here even if you lose elsewhere.

2008: How To Avoid A Common Bear Market Mistake | Seeking Alpha

2008: How To Avoid A Common Bear Market Mistake | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another excellent article about why we should not panic in the 2014 stock market.  He showed a chart of today's market compared to the beginning bear market of 2008. Even while talking heads were predicting a good year in 2008, the bear signs were already there in Chris's chart along with the famous death cross.



As for today's chart, we are nowhere near signs of trouble.  Pullbacks should be buying opportunities.  XLU, the utilities ETF, is one stock I plan to buy on stock market declines of less than 10%.  I do hold a bond stock (TMF) just in case the market falls hard, though.  Chris owns TLT himself which is the 20+ year treasury bond ETF, but it is only a small position.  TMF is a 3x version of TLT.  So, most of our money should be on long stocks currently until the economy starts to fall.

The Way Of The Bull And The Bear | Seeking Alpha

The Way Of The Bull And The Bear | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written another great article about how we need to have a good investment plan for these uncertain times.  I agree with Eric completely that sometimes we need to be bullish, and at other times we need to be bearish.  His stock allocations reflect his plan.



Eric is short term bullish, and he holds two stocks that are safe under current market conditions in addition to being reasonably profitable.  SPLV, the S&P 500 low volatility ETF, has gained 16.7% from its low of the last 12 months, and the dividend is 2.3%.  If you bought the stock near one of its low points, you could have gained 15 to 19% in the last year counting the dividend.



Another bull pick from Eric is XLU, the utilities ETF.  You could have made 22% during the past year just from capital gains if you had bought it at $36 per share.  Then, you would have made at least 3% from dividends in addition to the stock price gain.  How many 25% stocks do you hold?  I agree with Mr. Parnell that these two stocks are excellent picks.  As for picking the bottoms or breakouts of stocks, this is where a knowledge of charting will help.  As for the fundamentals of these two stocks, you don't have to worry about that aspect unless we are going through a severe bear market.



Next, Eric is intermediate term bearish.  In other words, he has his eyes on the market exits.  He has also allocated some of his money to cash and bearish stocks to pay up on his bear insurance.  For example, he owns TLT, the 20+ year treasury bond ETF, because it will certainly go up when the market goes down.  I own TMF myself because it is a 3x ETF version of TLT.  So, both Eric and I are allocated for the bear whenever it finally arrives.  We can also add to our bearish stocks at the proper time.



Finally, Eric is a long term bull.  He is looking forward to buying bargain stocks the next time stocks hit the bottom.  We don't know when this will happen, but both of us will be ready for bottom fishing in the future.  Some of the greatest gains you will ever achieve will come from picking good stocks as a bear market turns into the next bull.  The bottom line is that we need to be accumulating money all the time in spite of market conditions so that we will have the retirement dream that we are expecting.

 



  

The same returns with half the risk? - - MSN Money

The same returns with half the risk? - - MSN Money



Here is an outstanding article on why the traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds investment allocation is the best way to plan for the future.  Being 100% invested in stocks only beat 40% bonds slightly going all the way back to the 1920s.  If you consider the past 17 years, both types of portfolios are even.  If you consider going forward, it will probably be even also because an overvalued stock market will only provide small returns since the market cannot go much higher.



The reason that stocks and bonds are so close is that most people will sell out in bear markets.  Then, they will buy back in after the stock market has already risen significantly off the bottom.  So, when you average everything out, a 60/40 stocks/bonds allocation is the safest way to invest, and you can expect the same return in the long haul as being 100% invested in stocks.  I wholeheartedly believe in this strategy especially nowadays when nobody knows for sure when stocks will experience a severe decline or an outright bear market.

The Biggest Story Of 2014 - The Return Of The Inflation Trade | Seeking Alpha

The Biggest Story Of 2014 - The Return Of The Inflation Trade | Seeking Alpha



Chris Puplava has written an excellent article about how the stock market trend is up currently, and the bullish trend should continue.  The energy sector should continue to go up as inflation goes up.  Oil always rises when the market perceives that people may have more money to pay for oil or if the dollar is weak.  If it takes more dollars to buy oil due to inflation or something else, then the price of oil goes up.



Chris also presented a table of leading indicators based on how the economy is doing.  If most of those conditions are positive, then the stock market will probably go up.  For example, one indicator the author uses is the Philly Fed Business Outlook.  Another leading indicator is Initial Jobless Claims.  I totally agree with Chris on these economic signposts.  So, we should be mostly allocated to stocks currently.  I am also long on energy through oil stocks like Continental Resources (CLR) and ERX, the triple energy bull ETF.

The Next Bear Market: How To Protect Your Assets | Seeking Alpha

The Next Bear Market: How To Protect Your Assets | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another great article on the stock market comparing predictions for the future of stocks to the weather.  Neither one can be predicted accurately beyond the short term.  So, you need a system of stock and bond buying that works in increments.  If all the market's main moving average lines are pointing upward, then stocks should get most of your money allocation.



Charts do indeed matter because the fundamentals are underneath the surface of the moving average lines.  As Chris mentioned, weather cannot be predicted accurately beyond eight days.  The same is true of stocks also.  That is why you take a low moving average line like 13 to make an incremental change in certain stocks.  For a major average, the early warning might be the 50-day line.  Changes should not be all or none.  As one person commented, a lot of money can be lost trying to prepare for a bear market.  If you are on the sidelines while the market is going up, you are losing money and limiting your retirement final total.

Hairless Man Grows Full Head of Hair in Yale Arthritis Drug Trial

Hairless Man Grows Full Head of Hair in Yale Arthritis Drug Trial



Here is a good article on a possible cure for baldness.  The drug is called tofactinib citrate, and the medicine reportedly has no side effects.  So, this is the solution for alopecia, the scalp condition where the hair follicles clog up and shrink.  It took about eight months for the hair to grow back, though.  The article did not discuss whether the drug had to be used continuously, but it sounds promising as long as the treatment is economical.



 

Home - Lightstream Resources

Home - Lightstream Resources



This is the website of Lightstream (LSTMF), a Canadian oil and gas company.  They have several properties such as Horn River in British Columbia, Swan Hills and Cardium in Alberta, and Bakken oil in Saskatchewan.  The company has recently zoomed upward from its $5 bottom and is trading at over $8 per share now.  Moreover, Lightstream pays a 6% annual dividend in monthly installments.  I plan to buy LSTMF this next week for a possible double along with the dividends that I will receive.

Is The Bear About To Maul The Bull? Here's How We're Investing | Seeking Alpha

Is The Bear About To Maul The Bull? Here's How We're Investing | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about balanced investing.  The author is invested primarily in stocks that are quality large caps while he waits along with all of us for the next bear market to arrive.  He also maintains reasonable bond and cash allocations which together amount to 30% of his portfolio.  So, as long as the stock market remains in an upward trend, he is making money that would otherwise be lost if he were just sitting on the sidelines.  We must remember that the money we fail to obtain is as bad as losing money because it diminishes the final total of our retirement nest egg.

Plug Power: 5 Reasons Why This 209% Gainer Hasn't Run Out Of Steam Yet - Plug Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Seeking Alpha

Plug Power: 5 Reasons Why This 209% Gainer Hasn't Run Out Of Steam Yet - Plug Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article about Plug Power (PLUG).  The stock has seen a 24% decline in the past three months, but PLUG is still up more than 200% in 2014.  The bottom floor of the stock seemed to be put in at around $4 per share.  A secondary stock offering a few weeks ago may be one of the causes for the company's recent struggles.



PLUG also has a high level of short interest, and this is putting a cap on the stock's advances.  However, fuel cell energy is here to stay.  Forklifts as well as cars will be running on fuel cell power.  In fact, fuel cell vehicles have longer driving ranges than most battery cars, and the refueling time is a whole lot faster than recharging an electric car.



As the author mentioned, PLUG has a very high PE of 250.  This is another reason the shorts like it.  However, the company's revenues and earnings are expected to advance rapidly during the next two years.  Debt is also no longer a factor with Plug Power.  So, PLUG is a buy anywhere between $4 to $5 per share.  It will be a volatile ride, but Plug Power will most likely double in price in the next year or two.

3 ways we're botching the US oil boom- MSN Money

3 ways we're botching the US oil boom- MSN Money



This is a good article by Jim Cramer about North Dakota oil.  It is the second leading producer of oil behind Texas.  North Dakota has the lowest unemployment in the nation also due to the oil boom.  We need to build oil and gas pipelines, though, to use efficiently all the energy we have there.  Natural gas electrical plants need to be built in North Dakota and neighbor states to use the gas that is currently just flared away.  So, we need to continue the great expectations of this state along with building out the nation's infrastructure.

 

1992 Says Don't Assume Stocks Are Doomed With Slow Growth | Seeking Alpha

1992 Says Don't Assume Stocks Are Doomed With Slow Growth | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another very interesting article about why we should have strict portfolio allocations in this uncertain stock market environment.  His TLT treasury bond ETF holding protects at least part of his money from a sudden market collapse.  I own TMF myself, and it is basically a 3x TLT long bond bet.



VTI, the Vanguard Total Market ETF, is another stock that Chris owns.  VTI includes AAPL, XOM, MSFT, GOOG, CVX, BRK.A, and PG in its top 10 holdings.  The stock is up 20% in the past twelve months while many people have been afraid to own stocks at a stock market top.  You will lose both time and money if you don't allocate at least part of your portfolio to possible risk assets.  They must be quality assets, though.



The 3rd stock that Chris is holding is XLK, the technology sector SPDR ETF.  It is also up 20% during the last twelve months like VTI.  This ETF holds AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT just like VTI in its top holdings.  However, it contains high paying dividend stocks like VZ and T in its top 10 as well.



The main focus of the article was comparing 1992 to 2014.  Stocks were at a top in 1992 also, but they just kept going up.  If you had stayed on the sidelines back then, you would have missed one of the greatest bull markets in history as the internet, computers, and cellphones went mainstream.  This is why a person needs to have a strict balanced portfolio involving both stocks and bonds so that you will be prepared for anything!

Plug Power: A Short Squeeze In The Making? - Plug Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Seeking Alpha

Plug Power: A Short Squeeze In The Making? - Plug Power, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an interesting article about Plug Power and other fuel cell companies.  The PLUG chart certainly looks like a bottom around $4 per share.  FuelCell Energy is also an important stock idea since they will help with the necessary infrastructure for fuel cell cars.  The driving range of fuel cell cars is also significantly higher than most electric cars.  If you have some speculative money and time to wait, these two companies could become very profitable for you.

Tesla To $400? If Its Short History Is A Sign Of The Future, It's Possible - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Tesla To $400? If Its Short History Is A Sign Of The Future, It's Possible - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about Tesla (TSLA), and it proves that all momentum stocks are not dead.  I have owned Tesla before, but I got shaken out when it started dropping toward $200.  I thought the momentum stocks would continue to be punished in our overbought market.  Now that I see I was wrong, I will probably be a Tesla buyer every time it gets near $200.  The stock gained $18 or 8% today while the rest of the stock market was flat.  Even if Tesla does not get to $400 or $500, it is a big time trade if you sell while you are ahead. Making 8% to 20% trades in our current stock market is a worthwhile strategy to follow.

The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip | Seeking Alpha

The Danger Of Buying The Next Dip | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article by Eric Parnell about the danger of buying a -10% pullback in today's bull market.   He used examples from three past bull markets where buying a large dip did not work in the late stages of the bull cycle.  In all three of Eric's examples, a bear market soon followed after a -10% drawback.  So, it is not worth buying big dips in an old bull market.  The market can still move higher, but anything other than a 5% pullback might be dangerous.



Of course, buying various sizes of dips will work great in a beginning bull market, but we are way past that scenario now.  You may also recall that the bear market decline that began in 2000 started while we were not in a recession.  So, you can't trust good economic conditions either.  Rising interest rates may be the biggest tip-off for the stock market top.  When bonds start paying about the same percentage that stocks are gaining, it will be time to move to the sidelines.  You could also buy TLT, the 20+ year treasury bond ETF and do well then.

Which ETFs Are The Best Now?

The stock market is clearly in a topping process, but we still have several stocks that are making money in these times.  The wise thing to do would be to allocate only 5% of your money to a momentum stock right now, but if your 5% happens to be $5,000 currently, you could probably make another $1,000 or more with that money.  One of the best performing stocks over the past six months is SOXL, the 3x semiconductor ETF.  When you invest in SOXL, you are buying into the whole electronics field of computers, smartphones, and other gadgets that are in demand.  The stock has gained more than 79% in six months.

How has SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, performed during the past six months after the 29% run last year?  It is up less than 10% since December. SOXL has clearly moved to the head of the pack.  I'll keep looking, but I don't know of any ETF that has done better than SOXL.  Smartphones and tablets will continue to be in great demand, also.  This is one of the few stocks I would trust in the latter stages of this bull market. Click on the chart to expand it.

anise: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD

anise: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD



Here is another great herb to boost a person's immune system.  Anise is used for coughs, bronchitis, Type A flu, swine flu, and bird flu.  It is effective against viruses, bacteria, yeast, and fungus infections.  In fact, anise contains shikimic acid which is reportedly an ingredient in Tamiflu, the wonder drug for fighting flu viruses.



Moreover, anise increases male sex drive in addition to being a pleasant flavoring in beverages.  It also helps stomach indigestion and gas.  I have been taking a little anise for quite some time, but I intend to increase my dosage for a greater effect against diseases as well as being a fountain of youth.

 

ASTRAGALUS: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD

ASTRAGALUS: Uses, Side Effects, Interactions and Warnings - WebMD



As a occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  The link above is for an herb called astragalus.  It is reportedly a wonder drug against cancer, diabetes, viruses, and bacteria.  I have personally used astragalus, and I witnessed the disappearance of a tongue sore that had been there more than five years.



It is also used for chronic fatigue syndrome, to boost the immune system, for increased blood flow, for wound healing, for allergies and colds, for fibromyalgia, and for the liver and kidneys.  The brand that I use is Herb Pharm, and it is available from Vitacost.com on the internet.

Today's Market: What Momentum Stocks We Like Right Now | Seeking Alpha

Today's Market: What Momentum Stocks We Like Right Now | Seeking Alpha



Here is a good article about momentum stocks.  We don't have a lot of momentum gainers in 2014 like we had in 2013.  People are being more defensive now, and rightly so with an overbought market. However, I like Twitter at the $36 level because it has decisively moved away from its bottom at around $30.  The author implied that he also likes Twitter.  So, TWTR could be a 5% speculation for your portfolio while not much else is significantly happening in the stock market.

Fearful When Others Are Greedy | Seeking Alpha

Fearful When Others Are Greedy | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about what happens at stock market tops.  The author presents a chart where bull/bear sentiment is shown at record levels.  The last bear market as well as the severe 2011 correction occurred right after bullish sentiment rose above 40.



Secondly, the author showed a table where stock market gains were near zero when bull/bear sentiment was over 40%.  So, you are better off buying dividend stocks which pay 5% of more annually while the market is rounding out the top of the current bull market. Eventually, the stock market will have a big correction or another bear cycle, but nobody knows the exact timing involved.  Getting paid now with dividend stocks may be our best option.



Another point the author made is that XLU (utilities) and TLT (20+ year treasury bonds) have outperformed the Russell 2000 this year. You could allocate part of your portfolio to these stocks for further diversification which is profitable so far in 2014.  Strict sector allocations provide safe above average market returns over a period of several years.

Stock-Bull Topping Underway Looks Just Like 2007's Last One - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

Stock-Bull Topping Underway Looks Just Like 2007's Last One - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an excellent article showing that we are currently near a stock market top as compared to how things happened back in 2007.  The downturn back then actually started in 2007, but most people would recall the great decline in 2008 as defining the bear market.  It will be very difficult to tell when the actual decline has begun in earnest.  We could be 20% down before people realize the bear market is here.



Since nobody will be able to tell exactly when the bear will arrive, my strategy is to buy TMF, the 3x 20+ year treasury bond ETF, at various times to build a big position by the time the bear market arrives.  It will go up while the market goes down.  I also have current long positions because I know the stock market will continue to rise indefinitely, and you need to make money while you can.



SPXL, the 3x S&P 500, is one of my long stocks.  I believe the S&P will only rise another 5% this year, but I can maximize my gains by being in a 3x ETF.  Another stock I own is CEFL, a closed-end fund ETF which pays a 16% annual dividend in monthly distributions.  So, I am effectively both long and short during this uncertain period of the stock market topping process.  We must make money while we can because a person only has so much time to build a retirement nest egg.

  

Why TravelCenters of America Shares Were Rolling Higher Today (TA)

Why TravelCenters of America Shares Were Rolling Higher Today (TA)



This is an interesting article about TravelCenters of America.  The company is staying above water, and profits should definitely improve in the future when the 41 recent properties that they bought start to produce.  The economy is also continuing to improve, and this will help the company's future.  Even if you don't hold TA for the long term, it is often a good trade if you catch it at an intermittent bottom.

Equity Rally Is Just Getting Started | Seeking Alpha

Equity Rally Is Just Getting Started | Seeking Alpha



Here is a good article for the bulls of the stock market.  The market continues to move higher because there is no bad news, and the economy is doing well.  Unemployment figures continue to improve and payroll numbers are the highest since 1999.  The only question is how high will the market go at least in the short term?  I think the gains of the S&P 500 will get smaller and smaller, but the author mentioned some growth stocks that might do well.  RPG, Guggenheim S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF, was one stock that impressed me a lot, and it is beating the S&P (SPY) by a considerable margin since April 30, 2014.  Some of its top holdings are TRIP, HBAN, and GMCR.  Quality stocks will probably outperform the S&P until the stock market finally reaches the top sometime in the future, and it will probably be elusive to almost everyone.

Bear Repellent For Your Stock Portfolio | Seeking Alpha

Bear Repellent For Your Stock Portfolio | Seeking Alpha



Eric Parnell has written another great article about preparing for a bear market.  We don't know when it is coming, but Eric is right that the next bear market may really be worse because the Federal Reserve has already spent a lot of its bullets to kill the past bear market.  So, investors cannot count on a quick recovery of their money once the market goes down again.



Secondly, Eric mentioned three outstanding stocks that hold up well in bear markets.  I especially like Procter and Gamble (PG) and McDonald's (MCD).  In the last bear market, Procter and Gamble stayed positive for months while the S&P was falling.  In fact, the S&P was already down -20% before PG had a sustained dip below zero.  So, if you had been comparing this chart diversion between the two stocks, you would have had plenty of warning to head for the sidelines.  Moreover, McDonald's did even better.  It only went below zero a short time while the S&P 500 fell around 55% to the bottom.

Apple And Skyworks Are Both Heading Skyward - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWKS) | Seeking Alpha

Apple And Skyworks Are Both Heading Skyward - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWKS) | Seeking Alpha



This is an excellent article about Apple and Skyworks.  I own Apple, and I am planning to buy Skyworks soon.  The article explains how Skyworks has been doing very well, and this is a good sign for Apple also since they are partners.  Both companies are seeing success in China, too.  Since many stocks are overbought in today's stock market, it is refreshing to know that solid companies like these will continue to advance.

Why An Inverted Yield Curve Won't Signal The Next Recession | Seeking Alpha

Why An Inverted Yield Curve Won't Signal The Next Recession | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very good article explaining the basics of the yield curve of bonds and how it often it has often predicted recessions and market downturns in the past.  The only reason for having such a long current bull market is that the Federal Reserve has held interest rates around zero for a record amount of time.  When interest on the 10-year bond gets back to around 4% or higher, we will probably have a stock market crash, but we may never get there as long as Fed rates stay near zero.



The author pointed out that Japan has had three recessions since 1990 without the yield curve being inverted below zero.  This could very well be a new paradigm for central banks to hold interest rates near zero for long periods of time.  The end result is that we could have a recession and stock market downturn without the usual inverted rate signal.  A flattening of the yield curve may be the only warning we will get as the author mentioned.  The short term and long term rates may never meet or cross each other.  The chart lines will just get closer.

May Is The New April, But Is The ECB The New Fed? | Seeking Alpha

May Is The New April, But Is The ECB The New Fed? | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article on the possible effects of the ECB becoming like our own Federal Reserve.  This is 1999 party time all over again, but you have to be ready to get out when the top is reached sometime in the next two or three years.  Of course, this is insane as one comment writer mentioned, but he is expecting to make a lot of money on SPXL, the 3x leveraged S&P 500.  SPXL is up 170% since the start of 2013.  You might want to allocate at least a portion of your portfolio to incredible gains while you have the opportunity.  A person only has so much time to get ahead in life, and you don't want to lose money while you have a chance to make it.

10_YEAR Bond Charts - 10 Year Treasury Note Interactive Bond Charts - MarketWatch

10_YEAR Bond Charts - 10 Year Treasury Note Interactive Bond Charts - MarketWatch



Here is a chart of the 10-year treasury bond interest rate.  Notice that the rate is topping out at 3% and the bottom is around 2.5% now.  I don't know how long this pattern will last, but stock and bond trades can be made according to the chart's highs and lows.



For example, the last 3% rate high for the 10-year bond was at the start of 2014.  If you had bought the long-term bond ETF (20+ years), TMF, at the start of the year, you would have a double-digit return now.  Bonds tend to be bought when interest is high.  The higher yield makes them attractive compared to risky stocks.  



Another thing to note about the 10-year bond interest is that the rate will peak at stock market tops.  Interest was at 6% in the year 2000, and stocks died.  The Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates to slow down the economy.  The same scenario will probably happen again in the next two years or sooner when the Fed starts to raise rates.  You need to have a stock exit plan ready although you might be able to trade the intermediate cycle in the meantime.

    

The Felder Report | Taking The Financial Road Less Traveled

The Felder Report | Taking The Financial Road Less Traveled



This is another Felder Report where Jesse sounds the alarms once again about the overbought stock market.  In his article, he did not specifically mention the insane year 2000 market, but that was the time he was clearly referencing when he stated that the stock market has only been this overvalued once before.  The tech crash of 2000 also happened before the 2001 recession actually began.  So, even if the economy is okay, stocks can still fall a long way.  We need to keep our eyes on the exit doors and have an emergency plan ready.



 

Ur-Energy: 3 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares During The Last 30 Days - Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT:URG) | Seeking Alpha

Ur-Energy: 3 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares During The Last 30 Days - Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT:URG) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a good article about Ur Energy (URG), one of the few uranium companies that I can support.  I own shares of the company, and I plan to buy more shares.  However, you do not want to put a lot of money on any uranium stocks until the price of uranium starts to rapidly increase due to more demand.  The money you invest in URG will have to be considered "dead money" for a while since the uranium industry is stagnant right now.  However, you will eventually get a double or triple on Ur Energy.

 

The Nifty Fifty Market | Seeking Alpha

The Nifty Fifty Market | Seeking Alpha



This is a great article about large cap stocks that have been successful this year.  Halliburton (HAL) was one of the big winners on the list with a gain of 28% in 2014.  They will probably continue to outperform the market because they are involved with fracking for oil, and this has led to a super boom in U.S. oil production.  This is one of the few companies that can still go higher in an overbought stock market, and I am buying shares in the company tomorrow morning.

Best 'all of the above' income ETFs - - MSN Money

Best 'all of the above' income ETFs - - MSN Money



Here is an excellent article about a high-yield multi-asset group of funds that trade like stocks.  The yield on a couple of the funds is around 6% with a small capital gain as well.  The diversification of these stocks makes them fairly safe.  I believe they would be worthwhile as part of a diversified portfolio since general stocks will probably have meager gains going forward.

Three horses with major shot at upending California Chrome in Belmont | FOX Sports on MSN

Three horses with major shot at upending California Chrome in Belmont | FOX Sports on MSN



As I occasionally do, I will sometimes talk about subjects other than the stock market.  The link above is about three horses that could be profitable in the Belmont Stakes.  The New York track often has surprise winners.  The author suggested three horses that might be able to beat California Chrome.  I don't know what the final odds will be on these horses such as Commanding Curve who finished second in the Kentucky Derby, but if you can find a horse with 10 to 1 odds or greater, there is a good chance you could make five times your money if you make the right bet.



I have been to Churchill Downs quite a few times during the fall season in November around Thanksgiving.  The only times I won involved a $4 boxed exacta bet where I guessed which two horses would come in 1st and 2nd in either order.  I won around $26 one time and somewhere in the $30 range the other time.  So, you could have an exacta box bet with California Chrome and Commanding Curve in the Belmont Stakes.  Then, if you really want to take chances, you could do a trifecta box with three horses.  If you win a trifecta, it will most likely be hundreds of dollars.  In that case, I would go with California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Tonalist.  In reality, though, you'll probably be lucky just to win enough money for a nice hamburger!

Norovirus: Think Restaurants, Not Cruise Ships, CDC Says - NBC News.com

Norovirus: Think Restaurants, Not Cruise Ships, CDC Says - NBC News.com



Here is a very important article about the norovirus and how it is transmitted.  Restaurants got the most blame for the gastrointestinal sickness that norovirus causes.  If you end up vomiting several hours after you have eaten at a particular restaurant, the chances are high that norovirus is causing it.  Most people will probably ride out the problem or go to a walk-in clinic where they will be given medicine, but the true diagnosis may never be known since the clinics are limited on how much testing they can do.  Certainly, if you get a food-borne illness, one step you should take is to avoid that particular restaurant in the future.

Make 40% A Year With Math And Without Shorting - Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:TMF) | Seeking Alpha

Make 40% A Year With Math And Without Shorting - Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:TMF) | Seeking Alpha



Harry Long has written a very good article about how you can make 40% each year with a portfolio of just two stocks, VIX (inverse volatility) and TMF (leveraged long treasury bond).  One comment was that the four years involved in the study was a period of shrinking volatility.  However, I believe Harry's 40/60 VIX/TMF plan will work under the current market conditions.  XIV will continue to go up because volatility will continue to stay low.  TMF will continue to rise because a lot of people still fear the stock market, and they will be investing in treasury bonds.

Vinegar,The World's Super Health Food For People And Plants | Live Trading News

Vinegar,The World's Super Health Food For People And Plants | Live Trading News



As I occasionally do, I will talk about topics other than the stock market.  Vinegar is reportedly a great antibacterial agent.  I have used drops of white vinegar in my ears for infections, and it worked. Nevertheless, I still don't know how I can easily consume it in the same way that I take daily vitamins.  If anyone has suggestions, please let me know.  I am always looking for ways to improve the quality and length of my life.

DJIA: Warning Signs of a USA Recession | Live Trading News

DJIA: Warning Signs of a USA Recession | Live Trading News



Here is a great article about how electric power consumption can show the true state of our economy.  It turns out that global warming is a factor, but individuals and companies are still using less power. People who are unemployed or short on money will not be using a lot of power.  Graphs were presented to show how power consumption might be forecasting another recession.  Electric power is yet another indicator for helping us to determine the stock market's direction before we lose a lot of money.

Controversial post: This chart says the economy is broken | The Crux

Controversial post: This chart says the economy is broken | The Crux



This is an excellent article discussing the money supply with great charts and definitions.  Another point is that major retailers are closing down stores.  Think about the news concerning J.C. Penney and Sears.  These are anchor stores in our malls.  There is not a whole lot of buying and selling going on.  We are in a deflationary cycle where not much money is changing hands.

 

MoPay Dividend Dogs: 3 Lists To Buy And Hold In June | Seeking Alpha

MoPay Dividend Dogs: 3 Lists To Buy And Hold In June | Seeking Alpha



Here is an outstanding article on high-yield monthly pay stocks and closed-end funds that trade like stocks.  Don't be deceived by the S&P 500 continuing to make new highs because the general stock market gains will get smaller and smaller over the next two years until we have another stock market crash.  The super dividend stocks listed in this article should make up a large part of your portfolio.



Some of the closed-end funds pay double-digit returns that are higher than the individual monthly paying stocks, and you have downside protection by the diversity of companies held inside the funds.  Two of my favorite funds are MORL which is yielding 18% and CEFL which is paying 16%.  I own both of these diversified stocks.  The top paying fund on the list was Cornerstone Progressive Return Fund (CFP), and it had a yield of almost 20%.  These funds are the way to go, and you make money every month!