Saturday, November 1, 2014

Bear Market Delay -- Part 2

James Kostohyrz has written a very good article on why we just had a correction in October instead of a beginning bear market.  He brought up the fact that interest rates are still low, and there is an old saying that "stocks will grow when interest is low."  This has certainly proved to be true for more than five years now. 

Secondly, James mentioned the TINA principle--There Is No Alternative.  Since bank accounts are near zero on interest, and the ten-year bond is only paying a little more than 2%, people are being pushed toward buying stocks to gain a bigger percentage return for their money.  Like the author discussed, I believe the next bear market is 1-2 years away.  When the ten-year bond interest reaches 3.5-4% and stocks are a lot more overvalued, that will be the time to head for the sidelines.

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