Sunday, November 9, 2014

The Bull Case

Chris Puplava at Seeking Alpha has presented an excellent bull case for stocks.  I expect we will have a rally for another five weeks until the next Fed meeting.  I agree with Chris that the long-term is bullish, though.  We will definitely have some corrections next year, but they will be buying opportunities as long as the economy continues to do well.

One point that the author mentioned was a large percent of new highs.  Secondly, the Philly Fed State Leading Index is very positive for economic conditions.  Thirdly, the percent of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 200-day average is at 73% now.  Fourth, the technical charting of stocks is bullish.

Chris mentioned that signs of a true market top, like 2000 and 2007, occur when the technical and economic indicators are both declining.  In addition, we are not having any employment problems.  If jobs were falling instead of rising, that would be a red sign.  So, we are safe for now, but volatility will become more pronounced in 2015.


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