Sunday, October 18, 2015

3 Recession Signposts To Watch | ETF Trends

3 Recession Signposts To Watch | ETF Trends



Here is an excellent article on three indicators which predict a recession.  I agree wholeheartedly with the author that the CFNAI is the #1 predictor of recessions.  The August reading was -.41 which is cautionary.  If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index ever drops below -1.0, you should immediately sell your long stocks and go short, go to cash, or go to TLT, long term bonds.  I have back-tested this idea, and I believe it works to preserve capital during a recession.


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