This is an excellent article explaining the trailing 12-month yield (TTM) of dividend companies, and the article also talks about the 30-day SEC yield which can give a more current picture of what the company is doing. The article also discusses big bond funds like Vanguard's BND which has an excellent safety record but a lower yield return. Holding dividend stocks will never be as flashy as the S&P 500 in some of its movements, but quality bond funds should definitely be part of your portfolio to help you sleep better at night. You don't want to be at retirement age right when the stock market drops 50%, and you were 100% invested in stocks.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
REITs Notch Biggest Gains in Nearly a Decade
REITs Notch Biggest Gains in Nearly a Decade
Here is an interesting article about REIT stocks although it mostly concerns business REITs rather than high-risk family housing mortgage REITs. VNQ is a business REIT ETF which is good to own in order to safely maximize gains in the sector, and I own VNQ myself as part of a balanced portfolio. As the article mentioned, I believe triple-net business REITs will continue to rise in 2015, and the sector may beat the S&P 500 again due to the S&P high PE.
Here is an interesting article about REIT stocks although it mostly concerns business REITs rather than high-risk family housing mortgage REITs. VNQ is a business REIT ETF which is good to own in order to safely maximize gains in the sector, and I own VNQ myself as part of a balanced portfolio. As the article mentioned, I believe triple-net business REITs will continue to rise in 2015, and the sector may beat the S&P 500 again due to the S&P high PE.
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
The Coming Bear Market In 2015: Why There Will Be No Happy New Year Before We See QE Reloaded - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
The Coming Bear Market In 2015: Why There Will Be No Happy New Year Before We See QE Reloaded - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
This is a very good article on why a large market decline is coming soon. I bought more TMF today, the 3x long government bond ETF. As the author noted, the only thing holding up the stock market now is the Christmas seasonality. January and February will be downhill in 2015 just like early 2014. Once we hit a bottom on $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, I will sell most of my TMF and buy UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, for another ride up. This cycle could happen several times in the next year even while the economy will appear to be okay.
This is a very good article on why a large market decline is coming soon. I bought more TMF today, the 3x long government bond ETF. As the author noted, the only thing holding up the stock market now is the Christmas seasonality. January and February will be downhill in 2015 just like early 2014. Once we hit a bottom on $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, I will sell most of my TMF and buy UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, for another ride up. This cycle could happen several times in the next year even while the economy will appear to be okay.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Ben's Top 3 Gold Miners For 2015 | Seeking Alpha
Ben's Top 3 Gold Miners For 2015 | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article about three gold mining companies which can make a profit in today's depressed gold market. They are also located in mining friendly places. Whether the price of gold comes back or not, these companies will have earnings to show for their work, and this is important in an overvalued stock market. It is also noteworthy that institutions are willing to own these stocks. So, I believe these gold companies are worth buying as part of a diversified portfolio.
This is an excellent article about three gold mining companies which can make a profit in today's depressed gold market. They are also located in mining friendly places. Whether the price of gold comes back or not, these companies will have earnings to show for their work, and this is important in an overvalued stock market. It is also noteworthy that institutions are willing to own these stocks. So, I believe these gold companies are worth buying as part of a diversified portfolio.
Higher Dividends With Less Risk (Part 3): Global X SuperDividend U.S. ETF - Global X Super Dividend U.S. ETF (NYSEARCA:DIV) | Seeking Alpha
Higher Dividends With Less Risk (Part 3): Global X SuperDividend U.S. ETF - Global X Super Dividend U.S. ETF (NYSEARCA:DIV) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article which discusses the great value of owning dividend ETFs. While DIV is the primary focus of this article, the author compares DIV to the gold standard DVY and two other dividend ETFs. DIV has around a 6% dividend which is distributed monthly. This might not sound like much, but DIV is a worthwhile holding for a diversified portfolio.
The author lists the 50 companies which are held in DIV along with the dividends that the companies are paying. DIV is comprised of many MLPs and REITs. By holding this ETF, you can participate in MLPs without having to fill out time consuming K-1 tax forms.
Another interesting fact about DIV is that the total return has been 28% during the past 21 months although DVY did better with 36%. So, you can make money through quality dividend stocks with price gains as well as dividends. As long as we are not in a bear market, both of these stocks would be great for holding.
Here is an outstanding article which discusses the great value of owning dividend ETFs. While DIV is the primary focus of this article, the author compares DIV to the gold standard DVY and two other dividend ETFs. DIV has around a 6% dividend which is distributed monthly. This might not sound like much, but DIV is a worthwhile holding for a diversified portfolio.
The author lists the 50 companies which are held in DIV along with the dividends that the companies are paying. DIV is comprised of many MLPs and REITs. By holding this ETF, you can participate in MLPs without having to fill out time consuming K-1 tax forms.
Another interesting fact about DIV is that the total return has been 28% during the past 21 months although DVY did better with 36%. So, you can make money through quality dividend stocks with price gains as well as dividends. As long as we are not in a bear market, both of these stocks would be great for holding.
2014's Trash Could Be 2015's Treasure | Seeking Alpha
2014's Trash Could Be 2015's Treasure | Seeking Alpha
Eric Parnell has written another fantastic article about the stock market. While the S&P 500 has returned another double-digit gain year, TLT has done even better with a 26% gain. Investors will run to the safety of long-term government bonds whenever market uncertainty exists. I have been invested in a 3x long-bond ETF called TMF. It mirrors what TLT is doing although you will probably not get the 3x returns as advertised. The TMF gain is still more than TLT.
I hold a core position in TMF, and I also make money by trading in and out of the stock during times of volatility like we had in October and early December. As Eric mentioned, government bonds will normally be sold in a rising interest rate environment, but that is not what we got this year. Even while interest rates are supposed to rise in 2015, I think people will still be buying bonds because of fear in the stock market. I intend to hold TMF, and I will continue to trade part of it during volatile periods.
Secondly, Eric brought up the phenomenal gain of XLU, the utilities ETF. XLU increased 32% this year on top of a modest 3% dividend. I am buying XLU Monday morning because I believe the stock will continue to rise. First, XLU is a defensive stock, and I believe we will still have fear in the market in 2015. Secondly, the price of oil is expected to stay low throughout the next year, and cheap oil will be good for utilities. Thirdly, utilities will be making a lot of money during the winter, especially for the companies which are using cheap natural gas.
Thirdly, Eric talked about the tremendous gain of VNQ, Vanguard's REIT ETF. It gained 32% this year just like XLU, and making more than 30% each year is a stock investor's dream. VNQ's top ten holdings are mostly business REITs. This means that VNQ is a lot more stable than other REIT stocks which focus primarily on residential mortgages. In addition, the economy is doing great, and businesses which comprise VNQ will continue to do well in 2015. This is another stock that I will also be buying on Monday morning.
Eric Parnell has written another fantastic article about the stock market. While the S&P 500 has returned another double-digit gain year, TLT has done even better with a 26% gain. Investors will run to the safety of long-term government bonds whenever market uncertainty exists. I have been invested in a 3x long-bond ETF called TMF. It mirrors what TLT is doing although you will probably not get the 3x returns as advertised. The TMF gain is still more than TLT.
I hold a core position in TMF, and I also make money by trading in and out of the stock during times of volatility like we had in October and early December. As Eric mentioned, government bonds will normally be sold in a rising interest rate environment, but that is not what we got this year. Even while interest rates are supposed to rise in 2015, I think people will still be buying bonds because of fear in the stock market. I intend to hold TMF, and I will continue to trade part of it during volatile periods.
Secondly, Eric brought up the phenomenal gain of XLU, the utilities ETF. XLU increased 32% this year on top of a modest 3% dividend. I am buying XLU Monday morning because I believe the stock will continue to rise. First, XLU is a defensive stock, and I believe we will still have fear in the market in 2015. Secondly, the price of oil is expected to stay low throughout the next year, and cheap oil will be good for utilities. Thirdly, utilities will be making a lot of money during the winter, especially for the companies which are using cheap natural gas.
Thirdly, Eric talked about the tremendous gain of VNQ, Vanguard's REIT ETF. It gained 32% this year just like XLU, and making more than 30% each year is a stock investor's dream. VNQ's top ten holdings are mostly business REITs. This means that VNQ is a lot more stable than other REIT stocks which focus primarily on residential mortgages. In addition, the economy is doing great, and businesses which comprise VNQ will continue to do well in 2015. This is another stock that I will also be buying on Monday morning.
Friday, December 26, 2014
Permian Basin Royalty Trust: A Trust With Both Upside And Risk - Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE:PBT) | Seeking Alpha
Permian Basin Royalty Trust: A Trust With Both Upside And Risk - Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE:PBT) | Seeking Alpha
This is a very good article on the Permian Basin Royalty Trust. I have owned PBT in the past, and I am thinking about buying it again while oil prices are low. There is possible upside in the stock price and the dividend when oil prices rebound. However, as the author mentioned, we can never expect oil prices to be very high again in the future because too much supply is available.
The question is how much can you gain from PBT in the next year versus the S&P 500? It is true that the economy is doing well, but the S&P already has a high PE. Thus, I don't expect the S&P to gain more than 10% in the next 12 months, and a lot of volatility will be involved with it due to possible rising interest rates. Therefore, PBT might be able to beat the S&P this next year. I believe the company has an upside of close to 20% counting both the stock price and the dividend. In fact, I am going to buy PBT right now because I am fairly certain about this scenario.
This is a very good article on the Permian Basin Royalty Trust. I have owned PBT in the past, and I am thinking about buying it again while oil prices are low. There is possible upside in the stock price and the dividend when oil prices rebound. However, as the author mentioned, we can never expect oil prices to be very high again in the future because too much supply is available.
The question is how much can you gain from PBT in the next year versus the S&P 500? It is true that the economy is doing well, but the S&P already has a high PE. Thus, I don't expect the S&P to gain more than 10% in the next 12 months, and a lot of volatility will be involved with it due to possible rising interest rates. Therefore, PBT might be able to beat the S&P this next year. I believe the company has an upside of close to 20% counting both the stock price and the dividend. In fact, I am going to buy PBT right now because I am fairly certain about this scenario.
Thursday, December 25, 2014
We May Have Reached “Peak Shale” – Here’s Why That’s Good News!
We May Have Reached “Peak Shale” – Here’s Why That’s Good News!
Here is an outstanding article which explains the inner workings of the shale oil industry. As the article mentions, shale oil wells produce 30% of all their oil production in the first year. Therefore, oil companies must constantly keep drilling more wells just to stay even with their production levels or to increase production.
Now, with the low price of oil projected to stay in the $50 to $64 range for many months, this means that drilling will be cut back substantially, and less production will occur in 2015. This will cause an increase in oil prices since we will have less oil supply. Therefore, we should have several chances in the next year to make money on oil trades through owning an ETF like ERX or by owning oil companies like OAS, WLL, or RDS/A. The hard part will simply be picking the bottom.
Here is an outstanding article which explains the inner workings of the shale oil industry. As the article mentions, shale oil wells produce 30% of all their oil production in the first year. Therefore, oil companies must constantly keep drilling more wells just to stay even with their production levels or to increase production.
Now, with the low price of oil projected to stay in the $50 to $64 range for many months, this means that drilling will be cut back substantially, and less production will occur in 2015. This will cause an increase in oil prices since we will have less oil supply. Therefore, we should have several chances in the next year to make money on oil trades through owning an ETF like ERX or by owning oil companies like OAS, WLL, or RDS/A. The hard part will simply be picking the bottom.
Whiting Petroleum: Higher Proved Reserves Aren't The Only Reason Why I'm Long - Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:WLL) | Seeking Alpha
Whiting Petroleum: Higher Proved Reserves Aren't The Only Reason Why I'm Long - Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:WLL) | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article about Whiting Petroleum. I have owned WLL in the past, and I will probably buy shares in the company in the near future. Of course, the price of oil will make it risky in the short term. In this case, you could make money by trading in and out WLL. You could have gained 20% recently if you bought at $28 per share and you sold at $36. The rest of the stock market is volatile also, but you can still make money if you buy quality stocks at the lows and sell at least part of your position when a high is reached.
This is an excellent article about Whiting Petroleum. I have owned WLL in the past, and I will probably buy shares in the company in the near future. Of course, the price of oil will make it risky in the short term. In this case, you could make money by trading in and out WLL. You could have gained 20% recently if you bought at $28 per share and you sold at $36. The rest of the stock market is volatile also, but you can still make money if you buy quality stocks at the lows and sell at least part of your position when a high is reached.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
Recent Hindenburg Omens Signaled Caution, Now What? | Seeking Alpha
Recent Hindenburg Omens Signaled Caution, Now What? | Seeking Alpha
Chris Puplava has written another outstanding article about the stock market and the economy. As you know, we experienced a 5% pullback in December which was an excellent buying opportunity. I have made a handsome profit so far through buying UDOW and some oil stocks near the bottom. Since I knew the economy was doing well, I was not afraid to buy stocks.
Chris mentioned several reasons for the stock market going higher in his article. He believes like me that the economy is in good shape. He cited the improving employment market and the Philly Fed six month states economic outlook as proof that we are nowhere near a recession. The author also examined advance-decline lines and new highs/new lows historically at stock market tops. If the new highs spike higher than the new lows, the bulls are in charge. That is where we are in mid-December of 2014 with a bull rally going on.
However, Chris warned that all is not completely well. You can still have a mini bear market while we are not in a recession, and August to October of 2011 is one example of this. He also talked about how the monthly MACD line of the S&P 500 is sloping downward. This usually precedes a large pullback, and there may be another decline on the way. I plan to book profits on some of my stocks like UDOW this next week because I think the Christmas rally is just about over.
Chris Puplava has written another outstanding article about the stock market and the economy. As you know, we experienced a 5% pullback in December which was an excellent buying opportunity. I have made a handsome profit so far through buying UDOW and some oil stocks near the bottom. Since I knew the economy was doing well, I was not afraid to buy stocks.
Chris mentioned several reasons for the stock market going higher in his article. He believes like me that the economy is in good shape. He cited the improving employment market and the Philly Fed six month states economic outlook as proof that we are nowhere near a recession. The author also examined advance-decline lines and new highs/new lows historically at stock market tops. If the new highs spike higher than the new lows, the bulls are in charge. That is where we are in mid-December of 2014 with a bull rally going on.
However, Chris warned that all is not completely well. You can still have a mini bear market while we are not in a recession, and August to October of 2011 is one example of this. He also talked about how the monthly MACD line of the S&P 500 is sloping downward. This usually precedes a large pullback, and there may be another decline on the way. I plan to book profits on some of my stocks like UDOW this next week because I think the Christmas rally is just about over.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
UDOW Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
UDOW Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
Here is a chart of UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF. I bought UDOW today because I believe there will be a Christmas rally although I don't know how long it will last. I will probably sell UDOW when it gets to around $142 per share in order to preserve my profit for a 12% gain. I performed a similar trade back in October-November for a 7% gain in UDOW. So, in the space of three months, I am expecting to book a total of 19% profit on UDOW trading money for one quarter of the year while this represents only 15% of my portfolio just in case I am wrong.
My reason for buying UDOW today was two-fold. First, the stock market had declined by about 5% from its previous high similar to the October pullback of 9%. Since I knew the economy was doing okay, I was willing to bet on a bull rally. Secondly, $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, showed a very oversold condition of -81 on December 16. It was also oversold back in October when the market bounced off the bottom. So, these two reasons prompted me to buy UDOW today soon after the market opened.
As good as this trading plan sounds, you still never know what the stock market will do. That is why I maintain a diversified portfolio with the other 85% comprised of long stocks for either capital gain or dividends along with bond stocks for additional diversity. I don't know how many pullbacks we will have in 2015 that will be a big enough decline for a worthwhile trade, but I want to seize the opportunities when I get them. I am hoping for 6 to 8 chances per year. If I make an average of 9.5% on 6 trades per year, I will be making 57% each year on my 15% allocation of trading money.
Here is a chart of UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF. I bought UDOW today because I believe there will be a Christmas rally although I don't know how long it will last. I will probably sell UDOW when it gets to around $142 per share in order to preserve my profit for a 12% gain. I performed a similar trade back in October-November for a 7% gain in UDOW. So, in the space of three months, I am expecting to book a total of 19% profit on UDOW trading money for one quarter of the year while this represents only 15% of my portfolio just in case I am wrong.
My reason for buying UDOW today was two-fold. First, the stock market had declined by about 5% from its previous high similar to the October pullback of 9%. Since I knew the economy was doing okay, I was willing to bet on a bull rally. Secondly, $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, showed a very oversold condition of -81 on December 16. It was also oversold back in October when the market bounced off the bottom. So, these two reasons prompted me to buy UDOW today soon after the market opened.
As good as this trading plan sounds, you still never know what the stock market will do. That is why I maintain a diversified portfolio with the other 85% comprised of long stocks for either capital gain or dividends along with bond stocks for additional diversity. I don't know how many pullbacks we will have in 2015 that will be a big enough decline for a worthwhile trade, but I want to seize the opportunities when I get them. I am hoping for 6 to 8 chances per year. If I make an average of 9.5% on 6 trades per year, I will be making 57% each year on my 15% allocation of trading money.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Cramer Remix: What I'm waiting to see in oil
Cramer Remix: What I'm waiting to see in oil
This is a good article by Jim Cramer on why the stock market continues to fall along with the price of oil. Certainly there is a connection between oil and the S&P 500 since many oil companies are in the S&P group, but good companies like Apple and Skyworks should not be falling. The healthcare stocks like XLV and PJP should not be declining either. Thirdly, December is the best month of the year for stocks, and the magnitude of this pullback is hard to understand. As Cramer said, it could be the hedge fund computers giving bad information, or it could be year-end tax selling.
This is a good article by Jim Cramer on why the stock market continues to fall along with the price of oil. Certainly there is a connection between oil and the S&P 500 since many oil companies are in the S&P group, but good companies like Apple and Skyworks should not be falling. The healthcare stocks like XLV and PJP should not be declining either. Thirdly, December is the best month of the year for stocks, and the magnitude of this pullback is hard to understand. As Cramer said, it could be the hedge fund computers giving bad information, or it could be year-end tax selling.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Energy Sector Woes Continue To Weigh On Market As Risks Of Default Increase | Seeking Alpha
Energy Sector Woes Continue To Weigh On Market As Risks Of Default Increase | Seeking Alpha
Chris Puplava has written an outstanding article about how oil prices have fallen so far and so fast. This happened to a lesser extent in 2011 and 2012 when speculators sold off massive long positions. I have made money on oil in the past and I have lost money. It all depends on being on the right side of the trade at the right time.
Chris mentioned that we also have a high oil supply chart while demand for oil has been dropping. He stated that Americans are using 2 million barrels of oil less today than we used in 2007. This is also at a time when America is pumping millions of barrels of extra oil that we have not had in years. Moreover, electric cars and natural gas vehicles are finally having an impact. Therefore, oil will probably be a losing trade for quite a while.
Chris Puplava has written an outstanding article about how oil prices have fallen so far and so fast. This happened to a lesser extent in 2011 and 2012 when speculators sold off massive long positions. I have made money on oil in the past and I have lost money. It all depends on being on the right side of the trade at the right time.
Chris mentioned that we also have a high oil supply chart while demand for oil has been dropping. He stated that Americans are using 2 million barrels of oil less today than we used in 2007. This is also at a time when America is pumping millions of barrels of extra oil that we have not had in years. Moreover, electric cars and natural gas vehicles are finally having an impact. Therefore, oil will probably be a losing trade for quite a while.
Crude Oil Futures Quotes - CME Group
Crude Oil Futures Quotes - CME Group
Here is a website page from the CME Group where you can view oil futures. As you can see, oil prices have been revised downward, and the price of oil is expected to remain low for quite some time. Therefore, it will be difficult to make any money on oil stocks. However, cheap oil should be good for transportation stocks and the economy. I am buying IYT, the transportation ETF, on Monday and I will probably add to my position on any significant downturns as long as the economy remains intact. IYT has gained 26% so far in 2014, and I expect continued gains going into 2015 and possibly 2016.
Here is a website page from the CME Group where you can view oil futures. As you can see, oil prices have been revised downward, and the price of oil is expected to remain low for quite some time. Therefore, it will be difficult to make any money on oil stocks. However, cheap oil should be good for transportation stocks and the economy. I am buying IYT, the transportation ETF, on Monday and I will probably add to my position on any significant downturns as long as the economy remains intact. IYT has gained 26% so far in 2014, and I expect continued gains going into 2015 and possibly 2016.
A Growing Black Cloud Over The Market | Seeking Alpha
A Growing Black Cloud Over The Market | Seeking Alpha
Eric Parnell has written a great article about how the high yield bond market as represented by HYG is intertwined with the stock market in general. He mentioned specific oil companies that are involved with HYG, and he talked about how some of these companies have experienced a large downturn. Moreover, Eric discussed how the stock market could be eventually pulled down by the tanking of the oil sector.
My best performing stock right now is TMF, the 3x long treasury bond ETF. It goes up when the market goes down because people will rush to safety in government bonds. I think the downturn is just temporary, though, because the economy is okay currently. The hard part will be picking an intermediate bottom from which stocks will rebound. I will be monitoring $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, for a possible bottom around -60 or lower. At that point, I will sell most of my TMF and go long on stocks like UDOW or MIDU.
Eric Parnell has written a great article about how the high yield bond market as represented by HYG is intertwined with the stock market in general. He mentioned specific oil companies that are involved with HYG, and he talked about how some of these companies have experienced a large downturn. Moreover, Eric discussed how the stock market could be eventually pulled down by the tanking of the oil sector.
My best performing stock right now is TMF, the 3x long treasury bond ETF. It goes up when the market goes down because people will rush to safety in government bonds. I think the downturn is just temporary, though, because the economy is okay currently. The hard part will be picking an intermediate bottom from which stocks will rebound. I will be monitoring $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, for a possible bottom around -60 or lower. At that point, I will sell most of my TMF and go long on stocks like UDOW or MIDU.
Friday, December 12, 2014
U.S. Stocks Sink With Global Equities as Oil Rout Worsens
U.S. Stocks Sink With Global Equities as Oil Rout Worsens
The expected December rally probably won't come this year. We are already in a 4% hole for December, and if a rally does occur this month, we will just get back to even. The Dow lost 3.8% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.5%, and the S&P 100 (OEF) lost about the same. Large cap stocks are no longer a safe haven.
We don't know yet how far the market will fall. It could be another 9% decline like we had in October. TMF and other treasury stocks are among the few current winners. When the stock market finally finds the December bottom, I will probably be buying UDOW for the ride back up. The economy is actually in good shape, and that is why I think the market will eventually recover.
The expected December rally probably won't come this year. We are already in a 4% hole for December, and if a rally does occur this month, we will just get back to even. The Dow lost 3.8% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.5%, and the S&P 100 (OEF) lost about the same. Large cap stocks are no longer a safe haven.
We don't know yet how far the market will fall. It could be another 9% decline like we had in October. TMF and other treasury stocks are among the few current winners. When the stock market finally finds the December bottom, I will probably be buying UDOW for the ride back up. The economy is actually in good shape, and that is why I think the market will eventually recover.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
iBillionaire – Investment Ideas from Wall Street Billionaires
iBillionaire – Investment Ideas from Wall Street Billionaires
Here is an excellent website where you can get acquainted with successful billionaire investors and some of their holdings. The site lists the top 10 index holdings on one page along with a chart of how the billionaires are doing compared to the S&P 500. The home page shows current billionaire winners and losers. Another page gives a link to Direxion's website where you can learn about the billionaire ETF, IBLN. You can't go wrong for long by following the billionaires although nobody will be right all of the time. I intend to stay in touch with what the great investors are doing.
Here is an excellent website where you can get acquainted with successful billionaire investors and some of their holdings. The site lists the top 10 index holdings on one page along with a chart of how the billionaires are doing compared to the S&P 500. The home page shows current billionaire winners and losers. Another page gives a link to Direxion's website where you can learn about the billionaire ETF, IBLN. You can't go wrong for long by following the billionaires although nobody will be right all of the time. I intend to stay in touch with what the great investors are doing.
Overview of the Direxion iBillionaire Index ETF | Direxion
Overview of the Direxion iBillionaire Index ETF | Direxion
This is a website by Direxion where you can get information about billionaire investments. They also have an ETF, IBLN, that you can buy so that you can be invested like the billionaires are doing. They select 30 mid to large cap stocks to hold in the fund. Each stock is equally weighted in the fund, and the choices are based on billionaire 13F filings. IBLN is a great way to make money safely for at least part of your portfolio.
This is a website by Direxion where you can get information about billionaire investments. They also have an ETF, IBLN, that you can buy so that you can be invested like the billionaires are doing. They select 30 mid to large cap stocks to hold in the fund. Each stock is equally weighted in the fund, and the choices are based on billionaire 13F filings. IBLN is a great way to make money safely for at least part of your portfolio.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble | Seeking Alpha
Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article about oil company bargains that should be bought now or very soon. All three of the oil companies mentioned will most likely gain double-digit returns in the next year even if oil stays below $80 per barrel. I am buying RDS/A (Shell) tomorrow because of its great current price and because its recent dividend exceeds the junk bonds dividend rate. So, you have almost certain capital gain along with a super dividend that is most likely safe.
The other two companies discussed in the article were HAL and EOG. I agree 100% with the author that these two oil giants are great buys also. I plan to buy both of them in the near future, but my cash has already been spent on other bargains this week. HAL will rebound because fracking will continue as soon as the oil price swoon is over. EOG will rise again because it is one of the biggest oil companies in the Bakken as well as Texas. There is no way that these two companies will be held down for long.
Here is an outstanding article about oil company bargains that should be bought now or very soon. All three of the oil companies mentioned will most likely gain double-digit returns in the next year even if oil stays below $80 per barrel. I am buying RDS/A (Shell) tomorrow because of its great current price and because its recent dividend exceeds the junk bonds dividend rate. So, you have almost certain capital gain along with a super dividend that is most likely safe.
The other two companies discussed in the article were HAL and EOG. I agree 100% with the author that these two oil giants are great buys also. I plan to buy both of them in the near future, but my cash has already been spent on other bargains this week. HAL will rebound because fracking will continue as soon as the oil price swoon is over. EOG will rise again because it is one of the biggest oil companies in the Bakken as well as Texas. There is no way that these two companies will be held down for long.
AI Capable US Anti-Ship Missile Spooks Russia, Lavrov Vows To Retaliate - International Business Times
AI Capable US Anti-Ship Missile Spooks Russia, Lavrov Vows To Retaliate - International Business Times
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. Since the Russian support of Crimea and eastern Ukraine began this year, this situation has alarmed NATO, and both Russia and the West have been doing some muscle flexing. Other articles have talked about advanced Russian aircraft. This current article talks about counter defenses that the U.S. has deployed. Certainly, we hope nothing will happen, but it is interesting to note that neither side has overwhelming dominance in everything.
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. Since the Russian support of Crimea and eastern Ukraine began this year, this situation has alarmed NATO, and both Russia and the West have been doing some muscle flexing. Other articles have talked about advanced Russian aircraft. This current article talks about counter defenses that the U.S. has deployed. Certainly, we hope nothing will happen, but it is interesting to note that neither side has overwhelming dominance in everything.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Stocks in Turmoil as Fifth Hindenburg Omen Appears
Stocks in Turmoil as Fifth Hindenburg Omen Appears
This is another good article about how shaky the stock market has become. China is not helping either since they are also subject to pullbacks. The author did a good job to show the $NYA NYSE Composite Index and the $NYHILO NYSE new highs/lows index. These charts show that we may be headed for another scary decline like we had in September and October of this year. Once the bottom is known through a -60 to -90 indication on $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, you could make 10% or more riding the market back up through MIDU or UDOW.
This is another good article about how shaky the stock market has become. China is not helping either since they are also subject to pullbacks. The author did a good job to show the $NYA NYSE Composite Index and the $NYHILO NYSE new highs/lows index. These charts show that we may be headed for another scary decline like we had in September and October of this year. Once the bottom is known through a -60 to -90 indication on $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, you could make 10% or more riding the market back up through MIDU or UDOW.
Sunday, December 7, 2014
Recent Asset Class Performance | Seeking Alpha
Recent Asset Class Performance | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article about which ETFs have performed the best and the worst this year and recently. For example, the S&P 500 has gained a respectable 12% in 2014, but TLT (long government bonds) has beaten it with almost 19%, and XLV (healthcare) has beaten everyone with 27% except for INP (India) with 29%.
Other noteworthy ETFs include the Nasdaq QQQ with 20%, Utilities XLU with 20%, and Technology XLK with 17%. This goes to show you that you need a diversified portfolio utilizing sector specific ETFs along with a usual S&P 500 allocation. Another ETF which was not on the list was RUSS, short Russia shares, which is up over 100% for the past 12 months. RUSS will probably continue to gain because oil is still tanking, and it will not be coming back anytime soon. The Russian economy also depends a lot on oil.
Here is an outstanding article about which ETFs have performed the best and the worst this year and recently. For example, the S&P 500 has gained a respectable 12% in 2014, but TLT (long government bonds) has beaten it with almost 19%, and XLV (healthcare) has beaten everyone with 27% except for INP (India) with 29%.
Other noteworthy ETFs include the Nasdaq QQQ with 20%, Utilities XLU with 20%, and Technology XLK with 17%. This goes to show you that you need a diversified portfolio utilizing sector specific ETFs along with a usual S&P 500 allocation. Another ETF which was not on the list was RUSS, short Russia shares, which is up over 100% for the past 12 months. RUSS will probably continue to gain because oil is still tanking, and it will not be coming back anytime soon. The Russian economy also depends a lot on oil.
A Trend Following Bond Portfolio For Any Environment | Seeking Alpha
A Trend Following Bond Portfolio For Any Environment | Seeking Alpha
This is great article which explains the benefits of owning bonds. I agree with the author that bonds can produce significant returns if you stay with it and if you have a good plan like a couple of those strategies that were mentioned in the article. You never know when the stock market will fall, and government bonds will be the best place to be at that time.
You can also sleep better at night if you know you have a well diversified portfolio. If half of your money happens to be invested in good stock picks, you will get ahead just fine with your 50% stock allocation while your 50% bond allocation will protect you if your stock picks go bad because 50% of your money will be safe. We must always be prepared for the worst while we hope for the best.
This is great article which explains the benefits of owning bonds. I agree with the author that bonds can produce significant returns if you stay with it and if you have a good plan like a couple of those strategies that were mentioned in the article. You never know when the stock market will fall, and government bonds will be the best place to be at that time.
You can also sleep better at night if you know you have a well diversified portfolio. If half of your money happens to be invested in good stock picks, you will get ahead just fine with your 50% stock allocation while your 50% bond allocation will protect you if your stock picks go bad because 50% of your money will be safe. We must always be prepared for the worst while we hope for the best.
The Only 2 Charts You Need To Understand The S&P 500 - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
The Only 2 Charts You Need To Understand The S&P 500 - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an excellent article about how to tell if the S&P 500 will go higher. The author showed charts of the S&P buybacks index and the Japanese yen, FXY, to prove his point. As long as companies are buying back stock and the Japanese yen is going down, the stock market will rise.
Currently, we are in no man's land. The market does not know which direction it wants to go as illustrated by the S&P 500 flat price chart and the MACD. We need to be willing to adjust our positions as soon as we know where the stock market is headed. Also, we need to take profits when we have them.
Here is an excellent article about how to tell if the S&P 500 will go higher. The author showed charts of the S&P buybacks index and the Japanese yen, FXY, to prove his point. As long as companies are buying back stock and the Japanese yen is going down, the stock market will rise.
Currently, we are in no man's land. The market does not know which direction it wants to go as illustrated by the S&P 500 flat price chart and the MACD. We need to be willing to adjust our positions as soon as we know where the stock market is headed. Also, we need to take profits when we have them.
Friday, December 5, 2014
Boswellia for RA, OA, Asthma, and Cancer
Boswellia for RA, OA, Asthma, and Cancer
As I occasionally do, I will talk about topics other than the stock market. The above link to Healthline discusses the health benefits of Boswellia. It is a great anti-inflammatory herb that is useful for joint health. It not only soothes joints but helps to prevent the loss of cartilage. In theory, Boswellia could also help back discs just like studies have shown it helps people with knee problems.
Other benefits include reducing asthma symptoms and fighting against cancer. It also increases blood flow in women's genital areas, and it probably does the same for men. I have been using Boswellia through a Synerflex supplement for quite some time for knee and back pain. I definitely believe it works. You need to take it twice per day with a minimum of 300 mg of Boswellia.
As I occasionally do, I will talk about topics other than the stock market. The above link to Healthline discusses the health benefits of Boswellia. It is a great anti-inflammatory herb that is useful for joint health. It not only soothes joints but helps to prevent the loss of cartilage. In theory, Boswellia could also help back discs just like studies have shown it helps people with knee problems.
Other benefits include reducing asthma symptoms and fighting against cancer. It also increases blood flow in women's genital areas, and it probably does the same for men. I have been using Boswellia through a Synerflex supplement for quite some time for knee and back pain. I definitely believe it works. You need to take it twice per day with a minimum of 300 mg of Boswellia.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Bad News About This Year’s Flu Shot - weather.com
Bad News About This Year’s Flu Shot - weather.com
As I occasionally do, I will talk about other subjects in addition to the stock market. The above link involves flu vaccinations which are only about half effective in preventing the flu. The vaccine cannot cover all flu strains. Another point was that other strains of the flu virus become prevalent toward the end of flu season in the early spring. In fact, that is exactly when I caught the flu earlier in 2014. I thought I was safe since winter was past, but the flu bug was still around. So, be aware that there is not a perfect flu shot, and you need to act quickly if you get the flu because drugs like Tamiflu will work after you have been infected.
As I occasionally do, I will talk about other subjects in addition to the stock market. The above link involves flu vaccinations which are only about half effective in preventing the flu. The vaccine cannot cover all flu strains. Another point was that other strains of the flu virus become prevalent toward the end of flu season in the early spring. In fact, that is exactly when I caught the flu earlier in 2014. I thought I was safe since winter was past, but the flu bug was still around. So, be aware that there is not a perfect flu shot, and you need to act quickly if you get the flu because drugs like Tamiflu will work after you have been infected.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Stocks Bounce as 'Hindenburg Omen' Strikes
Stocks Bounce as 'Hindenburg Omen' Strikes
I am not alone in believing that stocks have more volatility ahead. Please read the article about the Hindenburg Omen above. I am making a little money in dividend stocks like MORL and AGNC that have held up fairly well in downturns while they continued to pay high dividends. However, I am a great believer in diversification and strict allocations of my money.
For example, I always want to have money ready to deploy on market pullbacks. So, I allocate around 20% or more of my money to cash. Since I know the economy is okay, and the long-term trend of the stock market is still up, I am not afraid to buy at intermittent bottoms. If you can make a 10% return on your trading money from the bottom just five times per year, you will make 50% each year with that money.
As much as I think the market will be volatile enough to make money trading, I always remain diversified in case I am wrong. Quality dividend stocks can be your bread and butter while trading allows you to hit home runs if the opportunities come along. I like playing ETFs for the home runs because you never know what might happen to individual stocks, and ETFs like UDOW and SOXL follow general market or sector trends. Just buy at the lows and sell when you are up 10-15% because we will always get downturns again sooner or later.
I am not alone in believing that stocks have more volatility ahead. Please read the article about the Hindenburg Omen above. I am making a little money in dividend stocks like MORL and AGNC that have held up fairly well in downturns while they continued to pay high dividends. However, I am a great believer in diversification and strict allocations of my money.
For example, I always want to have money ready to deploy on market pullbacks. So, I allocate around 20% or more of my money to cash. Since I know the economy is okay, and the long-term trend of the stock market is still up, I am not afraid to buy at intermittent bottoms. If you can make a 10% return on your trading money from the bottom just five times per year, you will make 50% each year with that money.
As much as I think the market will be volatile enough to make money trading, I always remain diversified in case I am wrong. Quality dividend stocks can be your bread and butter while trading allows you to hit home runs if the opportunities come along. I like playing ETFs for the home runs because you never know what might happen to individual stocks, and ETFs like UDOW and SOXL follow general market or sector trends. Just buy at the lows and sell when you are up 10-15% because we will always get downturns again sooner or later.
34 Percent Cash
These are troubled times for the stock market even though the Dow was up over 100 points today. Apple is still down $5 from last week's high after losing most of it on Monday. AAPL is now $114 per share. I was one of the people who got cut in Apple's downfall because I was expecting the stock to get over the $120 mark by mid-December. That was when I had planned to sell. Instead, I got shaken out on Monday. I lost most of my profit, but I still had a positive gain
when I sold for $115.73 to be safe.
After selling Apple and a few other stocks, I am now 34% cash. That is money that the market cannot take away from me, and I will use the cash on big sell-offs to buy quality stocks or ETFs. I don't believe we are headed for a bear market, but I believe we will experience a lot of volatility over the next few months. Since the economy is actually doing well, that is why I believe the market will always come back some, and I can make money riding up from the bottom of each downturn.
As for predicting the extent of each downturn, I cannot possibly know the numbers at the bottom, but I can get close. I believe we will have several 5-10% declines over the next six months. $NYMO will most likely be below -55 in all of those cases. That is when I plan to buy. UDOW, the Dow 3x ETF, is one of the stocks I plan to buy at each bottom. So, a lot of the money I make in the next six months will be from buying at the bottom and attempting to sell at the top.
when I sold for $115.73 to be safe.
After selling Apple and a few other stocks, I am now 34% cash. That is money that the market cannot take away from me, and I will use the cash on big sell-offs to buy quality stocks or ETFs. I don't believe we are headed for a bear market, but I believe we will experience a lot of volatility over the next few months. Since the economy is actually doing well, that is why I believe the market will always come back some, and I can make money riding up from the bottom of each downturn.
As for predicting the extent of each downturn, I cannot possibly know the numbers at the bottom, but I can get close. I believe we will have several 5-10% declines over the next six months. $NYMO will most likely be below -55 in all of those cases. That is when I plan to buy. UDOW, the Dow 3x ETF, is one of the stocks I plan to buy at each bottom. So, a lot of the money I make in the next six months will be from buying at the bottom and attempting to sell at the top.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Signs Of A Market Top
Jesse Felder has written an outstanding article on signs that we are at a stock market top. I agree with Jesse that we are near a market top, but no one knows when stocks will fall. It could be next month, next year, 2016, or later. It pays to be looking for the exit doors, though, so that you can get out with most of your money.
One point Jesse made involved a Federal Reserve chart comparing the GDP and ownership in equities. We are greatly overbought on stocks compared to the gross domestic product, and this usually means a market top. Another point the author made was that we have fewer than normal stocks above their 200 day average lines, and there is also a downtrend in this respect. So, the market is being held up by a minority of big cap stocks, and this scenario cannot continue indefinitely. We need to be careful about holding stocks nowadays, and we need to have a good exit plan.
One point Jesse made involved a Federal Reserve chart comparing the GDP and ownership in equities. We are greatly overbought on stocks compared to the gross domestic product, and this usually means a market top. Another point the author made was that we have fewer than normal stocks above their 200 day average lines, and there is also a downtrend in this respect. So, the market is being held up by a minority of big cap stocks, and this scenario cannot continue indefinitely. We need to be careful about holding stocks nowadays, and we need to have a good exit plan.
Market Top Signs Through Bonds
Seeking Alpha has an excellent article on why the high-yield bond funds HYG and JNK are being misused to call market tops. The author correctly showed that you need to look at the composition of the bond funds to determine if the decline is predicting a stock market fall. For example, the highest allocation of HYG stocks is currently in the oil and gas sector which is experiencing a large pullback. So, the HYG chart simply indicates that one of its prominent sectors is temporarily down.
Secondly, the author stated that if you are comparing government bonds to junk bonds to predict a top, you should not use TLT because the long-term government bond has a much different maturity time frame than HYG or JNK. It would be more accurate to compare the shorter term government bond funds IEF and IEI to HYG to decide if there is a run to safety. I agree with the author although I believe we are getting close to a market top. 2015 will most likely be a volatile year, but a stock market bear phase is probably around two years away. I plan to buy UDOW whenever it dips back toward $110 per share, and I will sell the stock when it gets somewhere over $130 per share as long as the main trend of the market is up.
Secondly, the author stated that if you are comparing government bonds to junk bonds to predict a top, you should not use TLT because the long-term government bond has a much different maturity time frame than HYG or JNK. It would be more accurate to compare the shorter term government bond funds IEF and IEI to HYG to decide if there is a run to safety. I agree with the author although I believe we are getting close to a market top. 2015 will most likely be a volatile year, but a stock market bear phase is probably around two years away. I plan to buy UDOW whenever it dips back toward $110 per share, and I will sell the stock when it gets somewhere over $130 per share as long as the main trend of the market is up.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Bonds For Volatile Times
Here is an excellent article at Seeking Alpha about adding bonds to a diversified portfolio. Like the author mentioned, some people shy away from bonds, but they definitely have a place in a safely allocated portfolio. You can own junk bonds through JNK to capitalize on what remains of our bull market while you can hold BND, Vanguard's total bond fund ETF, for overall stability. You will need to be agile when we enter a new bear market, though. The author talked about how JNK fell 25% in 2008 while BND was up almost 8%. So, even a well diversified portfolio will need to be monitored and adjusted for new conditions.
XLU -- The Best ETF For Volatile Times
Seeking Alpha has a page of articles about why XLU, the SPDR Utilities index, is a great diversifying stock for volatile times. XLU has gained around 17% in the past 12 months, and it has gained more than 9% in 2014. It also pays a dividend of more than 3%. When the market corrected around 9% in September and October, XLU held virtually steady at around $42. Then, it gained almost 10% to over $46 when the bullish recovery took place. So, XLU should be a part of each investor's portfolio.
The Bull Case
Chris Puplava at Seeking Alpha has presented an excellent bull case for stocks. I expect we will have a rally for another five weeks until the next Fed meeting. I agree with Chris that the long-term is bullish, though. We will definitely have some corrections next year, but they will be buying opportunities as long as the economy continues to do well.
One point that the author mentioned was a large percent of new highs. Secondly, the Philly Fed State Leading Index is very positive for economic conditions. Thirdly, the percent of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 200-day average is at 73% now. Fourth, the technical charting of stocks is bullish.
Chris mentioned that signs of a true market top, like 2000 and 2007, occur when the technical and economic indicators are both declining. In addition, we are not having any employment problems. If jobs were falling instead of rising, that would be a red sign. So, we are safe for now, but volatility will become more pronounced in 2015.
One point that the author mentioned was a large percent of new highs. Secondly, the Philly Fed State Leading Index is very positive for economic conditions. Thirdly, the percent of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 200-day average is at 73% now. Fourth, the technical charting of stocks is bullish.
Chris mentioned that signs of a true market top, like 2000 and 2007, occur when the technical and economic indicators are both declining. In addition, we are not having any employment problems. If jobs were falling instead of rising, that would be a red sign. So, we are safe for now, but volatility will become more pronounced in 2015.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Year End Rally
Here is a good article by Bret Jensen at Seeking Alpha about why stocks will probably rise through the end of the year while a correction is almost certain in 2015. One reason for stock prices increasing is that fund managers will be buying the dips according to Bret. They will be trying to catch up on their benchmarks to look good for the year.
One reason for volatility in January will be escalating political tensions when the new Congress is seated in January according to the author. Secondly, a bad winter could cause the economy to contract just like it did in the first quarter of 2014. Thirdly, we will not be getting as much help from the Federal Reserve. So, I will be taking profits toward the end of the year just like Bret since there is no telling what might happen in 2015.
One reason for volatility in January will be escalating political tensions when the new Congress is seated in January according to the author. Secondly, a bad winter could cause the economy to contract just like it did in the first quarter of 2014. Thirdly, we will not be getting as much help from the Federal Reserve. So, I will be taking profits toward the end of the year just like Bret since there is no telling what might happen in 2015.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Bear Market Delay -- Part 2
James Kostohyrz has written a very good article on why we just had a correction in October instead of a beginning bear market. He brought up the fact that interest rates are still low, and there is an old saying that "stocks will grow when interest is low." This has certainly proved to be true for more than five years now.
Secondly, James mentioned the TINA principle--There Is No Alternative. Since bank accounts are near zero on interest, and the ten-year bond is only paying a little more than 2%, people are being pushed toward buying stocks to gain a bigger percentage return for their money. Like the author discussed, I believe the next bear market is 1-2 years away. When the ten-year bond interest reaches 3.5-4% and stocks are a lot more overvalued, that will be the time to head for the sidelines.
Secondly, James mentioned the TINA principle--There Is No Alternative. Since bank accounts are near zero on interest, and the ten-year bond is only paying a little more than 2%, people are being pushed toward buying stocks to gain a bigger percentage return for their money. Like the author discussed, I believe the next bear market is 1-2 years away. When the ten-year bond interest reaches 3.5-4% and stocks are a lot more overvalued, that will be the time to head for the sidelines.
Bear Market Delay -- Part 1
Here is a great article at SeekingAlpha on why we will not have an immediate bear market. The author presented excellent historic charts to show that the current bull market still has room to run. For example, the author showed a bar graph of how the bull market of the 1990s lasted quite a bit longer than today's bull journey. He also presented a P/E illustration about the market in the year 2000 where the P/E was a whole lot higher than the current situation.
So, the bull market has further to run, but the author suggested being defensive about it since further gains will probably be difficult. You will have to be able to pick the best stocks and ETFs. I own AAPL and UDOW in this area, but I consider them as trades since the market will most likely decline again. As for defense, the author specifically mentioned TLT, the long government bond ETF. I agree with this choice although I hold TMF instead which is a 3x long bond ETF.
So, the bull market has further to run, but the author suggested being defensive about it since further gains will probably be difficult. You will have to be able to pick the best stocks and ETFs. I own AAPL and UDOW in this area, but I consider them as trades since the market will most likely decline again. As for defense, the author specifically mentioned TLT, the long government bond ETF. I agree with this choice although I hold TMF instead which is a 3x long bond ETF.
Dow or S&P 500
Remarkable U.S. economic good news and Japan's improvement set the stage for a great November-December bull rally. What happens in 2015 is another story, though. I plan to make money while I can in the present. The recent 8%+ decline gave some breathing room for a stock market advance before the next pullback occurs.
I bought UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, this past week because I believe the Dow large caps will outperform in our current market. I also bought Apple because I believe the company will make a significant gain between now and the end of the year due to Christmas phone and computer sales. After the last two months of 2014, though, I will probably take profits while I have them and wait for the next decline before I buy again.
I bought UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, this past week because I believe the Dow large caps will outperform in our current market. I also bought Apple because I believe the company will make a significant gain between now and the end of the year due to Christmas phone and computer sales. After the last two months of 2014, though, I will probably take profits while I have them and wait for the next decline before I buy again.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Bull or Bear
Chris Puplava at Seeking Alpha has written an outstanding article on how to tell if the recent large stock market sell-off is the beginning of a bear market or if the bull market will resume. The most important indicator that he discussed was the NYSE 200 day average line for NYSE stocks. Whenever this chart reaches the 30% region or lower, the market could be in extreme danger. If stocks bounce off the bottom of a major sell-off back above 50% on this indicator, then the market is still bullish. If stocks cannot get back above the 50% level, then we are going into a bear market.
Another index that Chris discussed was the Nasdaq summation index, $NASI. If this indicator falls below -500 and stays there, this is a second reliable indicator that we are going into a bear market. If this indicator gets back above +500, that is a bullish sign. November and December are the best two months of the year for stocks also. One reason for this is that companies like to repurchase shares during these two months, and big institutions can easily move the market higher. We definitely need to be cautious in the market, and the strongest stocks like Facebook are the safest. After December though, I may sell FB because I believe 2015 will be even more turbulent than 2014.
Another index that Chris discussed was the Nasdaq summation index, $NASI. If this indicator falls below -500 and stays there, this is a second reliable indicator that we are going into a bear market. If this indicator gets back above +500, that is a bullish sign. November and December are the best two months of the year for stocks also. One reason for this is that companies like to repurchase shares during these two months, and big institutions can easily move the market higher. We definitely need to be cautious in the market, and the strongest stocks like Facebook are the safest. After December though, I may sell FB because I believe 2015 will be even more turbulent than 2014.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Epic4Health
As I occasionally do, I will talk about health topics as well as the stock market. Epic4Health has a good article on Coenzyme Q10. This supplement has been used for many years for heart health. It energizes the body as well as the heart. Thus, you should not take COQ10 before bed unless you are planning to have sex or otherwise stay up. You should also take it with a meal for better absorption. The article in the link above says that Coenzyme Q10 is safe at high doses, too. 300 mg per day has been tested successfully in humans, and animal studies go much higher.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Ebola Drugs
Several Ebola drug companies have gained double-digit percents in their stock prices recently. Chimerix (CMRX) claims to have the only approved drug for fighting an active case of Ebola. NewLink Genetics (NLNK) is the front-runner for an Ebola vaccine, and they have the backing of the Canadian government. I plan to buy these companies in the near future when the volatility becomes less.
Currently, most of my money is tied up in stocks that will most likely be involved in a powerful November-December rally, stocks like Facebook (FB), Skyworks (SWKS), and MIDU, the mid-cap 3x ETF. I don't want to sell these stocks prematurely before I have gained significantly. So, new money and money from losers is probably what I will use for buying the Ebola drug companies initially. Ticker symbols of other drug companies to watch are IBIO, TKMR, BCRX, SRPT, NVAX, INO, and NNVC.
Currently, most of my money is tied up in stocks that will most likely be involved in a powerful November-December rally, stocks like Facebook (FB), Skyworks (SWKS), and MIDU, the mid-cap 3x ETF. I don't want to sell these stocks prematurely before I have gained significantly. So, new money and money from losers is probably what I will use for buying the Ebola drug companies initially. Ticker symbols of other drug companies to watch are IBIO, TKMR, BCRX, SRPT, NVAX, INO, and NNVC.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Market Commentary: Markets Close In The Red, Further Weakness Is Seen
Market Commentary: Markets Close In The Red, Further Weakness Is Seen
The stock market as measured by the S&P has dropped around 6.1% in the past few weeks, and this exceeds the 5.5% decline that we saw in February. Negative retail sales is one area that was blamed for today's loss since we are primarily a consumer driven economy. Of course, November and December should be strong due to holiday sales. So, I am buying strong stocks now like Intel and Facebook, but I will probably reduce them near the end of December because volatility is the new paradigm which we have not seen to this extent since August of 2011.
In his article, Gary shows the NYA index breaking its lower Bollinger bands along with institutional investors who are selling up trends. He believes we will experience more selling. On the positive side, though, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) has gone from more than -60 to -38 as of today's close. So, we are getting a bounce off the bottom. Some traders reportedly called the bottom today also when the Dow was down more than 300 points. I am just trying to hold on another two months so that I can reduce my portfolio when we are back near the year's high point.
The stock market as measured by the S&P has dropped around 6.1% in the past few weeks, and this exceeds the 5.5% decline that we saw in February. Negative retail sales is one area that was blamed for today's loss since we are primarily a consumer driven economy. Of course, November and December should be strong due to holiday sales. So, I am buying strong stocks now like Intel and Facebook, but I will probably reduce them near the end of December because volatility is the new paradigm which we have not seen to this extent since August of 2011.
In his article, Gary shows the NYA index breaking its lower Bollinger bands along with institutional investors who are selling up trends. He believes we will experience more selling. On the positive side, though, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) has gone from more than -60 to -38 as of today's close. So, we are getting a bounce off the bottom. Some traders reportedly called the bottom today also when the Dow was down more than 300 points. I am just trying to hold on another two months so that I can reduce my portfolio when we are back near the year's high point.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Survive Ebola: Become a “White Blood Cell” For Mankind
Survive Ebola: Become a “White Blood Cell” For Mankind
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. This is an outstanding article about the Ebola virus and how you can defend yourself against it. The author recommends selenium, magnesium, Vitamin C, baking soda, Vitamin D, glutathione, and iodine. These supplements not only help against Ebola, but they can improve conditions against other viruses like those involved with flu and colds.
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. This is an outstanding article about the Ebola virus and how you can defend yourself against it. The author recommends selenium, magnesium, Vitamin C, baking soda, Vitamin D, glutathione, and iodine. These supplements not only help against Ebola, but they can improve conditions against other viruses like those involved with flu and colds.
Market Commentary: Bad News As Markets Close Below Major supports
Market Commentary: Bad News As Markets Close Below Major supports
Here is an excellent article summarizing stock market conditions and indicators. Gary believes we will get a bounce off the bottom sometime, and he suggested that the 50 day line crossing over the 100 day line could be the turning point to the upside. Another important indicator is that $NYMO is at -61, and the stock market has a very good chance for reversal when the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is this low. You may want to sell any long rallies, though.
Here is an excellent article summarizing stock market conditions and indicators. Gary believes we will get a bounce off the bottom sometime, and he suggested that the 50 day line crossing over the 100 day line could be the turning point to the upside. Another important indicator is that $NYMO is at -61, and the stock market has a very good chance for reversal when the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is this low. You may want to sell any long rallies, though.
This is the most dangerous stock market since 2008
This is the most dangerous stock market since 2008
This is a very important article which gives details of a stock market that is about to fall hard. The only question is how low will it go? Will it be -10%, -15%, -25%? We have already violated the 200 day average lines.
On a positive spin, interest rates are still low, and the economy is not in a recession. So, it probably won't be a 2008 bear market. It will be something in between until the big boys decide the market has corrected enough to advance again. In the meantime, TMF, the 3x government long term bond, ETF, has been working very well. The bleeding seems to have stopped on Facebook (FB), too. The last line of hope will be the typical November-December rallies. After that, cash will probably be king.
This is a very important article which gives details of a stock market that is about to fall hard. The only question is how low will it go? Will it be -10%, -15%, -25%? We have already violated the 200 day average lines.
On a positive spin, interest rates are still low, and the economy is not in a recession. So, it probably won't be a 2008 bear market. It will be something in between until the big boys decide the market has corrected enough to advance again. In the meantime, TMF, the 3x government long term bond, ETF, has been working very well. The bleeding seems to have stopped on Facebook (FB), too. The last line of hope will be the typical November-December rallies. After that, cash will probably be king.
Sunday, October 12, 2014
SemiWiki - Samsung Profits Fall
SemiWiki - Samsung Profits Fall
Here is a good article at SemiWiki about why Samsung profits have fallen so dramatically. They are getting stiff competition from Chinese companies. It remains to be seen if Samsung can turn things around. SemiWiki has many other news articles that are worth reading also.
Here is a good article at SemiWiki about why Samsung profits have fallen so dramatically. They are getting stiff competition from Chinese companies. It remains to be seen if Samsung can turn things around. SemiWiki has many other news articles that are worth reading also.
Stocks: The Most Important Week In 6 Years | Seeking Alpha
Stocks: The Most Important Week In 6 Years | Seeking Alpha
Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article assessing the state of the stock market. I agree with Eric that we should get a bounce in stocks at these oversold levels. However, the long term trend will be much harder to figure out. I own Facebook, and I think it is one of the few stocks that will recover from this downturn. In theory, we should only have a correction and not a bear market because the economy is doing okay and interest rates are still low. When the ten-year treasury bond interest gets to 4%, that could be the final top for the market because stocks will die when interest is high.
Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article assessing the state of the stock market. I agree with Eric that we should get a bounce in stocks at these oversold levels. However, the long term trend will be much harder to figure out. I own Facebook, and I think it is one of the few stocks that will recover from this downturn. In theory, we should only have a correction and not a bear market because the economy is doing okay and interest rates are still low. When the ten-year treasury bond interest gets to 4%, that could be the final top for the market because stocks will die when interest is high.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Investors gird for scarier days in markets - Yahoo Finance
Investors gird for scarier days in markets - Yahoo Finance
Here is an excellent article about the stock market after a terrible 300+ drop in the Dow on Friday that put the index in the negative region for the year. The semiconductor index also fell so dramatically that you have to go all the way back to 2009 for results that bad. People believe that semiconductors will remain down due to global economy concerns. It would be best to stay out of semiconductor stocks until we see some chip companies reporting positive results.
In other news, government bonds received massive buying while stocks were sold off. TMF, the 3x long bond ETF, is a good stock to buy during these times, and I own it. Another point in the article is that the big boys are buying a lot of options while they exit stocks. So, we definitely need to be defensive this month and maybe longer until we see the bottom of this correction.
Here is an excellent article about the stock market after a terrible 300+ drop in the Dow on Friday that put the index in the negative region for the year. The semiconductor index also fell so dramatically that you have to go all the way back to 2009 for results that bad. People believe that semiconductors will remain down due to global economy concerns. It would be best to stay out of semiconductor stocks until we see some chip companies reporting positive results.
In other news, government bonds received massive buying while stocks were sold off. TMF, the 3x long bond ETF, is a good stock to buy during these times, and I own it. Another point in the article is that the big boys are buying a lot of options while they exit stocks. So, we definitely need to be defensive this month and maybe longer until we see the bottom of this correction.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
3 Companies Working to Prevent an Ebola Outbreak
3 Companies Working to Prevent an Ebola Outbreak
This is a great article about the severe possible complications of the Ebola virus. The author also mentioned three drug companies that could rise significantly if the Ebola disease gets more widespread. Tekmira Pharma. (TKMR) has a drug which has already been used successfully on an Ebola patient. The stock has gained more than three times in price in the past year. I plan to buy TKMR tomorrow as part of a balanced portfolio. Moreover, since the stock market has experienced a severe downturn lately, biotech companies may be the only stocks that can go against the tide.
This is a great article about the severe possible complications of the Ebola virus. The author also mentioned three drug companies that could rise significantly if the Ebola disease gets more widespread. Tekmira Pharma. (TKMR) has a drug which has already been used successfully on an Ebola patient. The stock has gained more than three times in price in the past year. I plan to buy TKMR tomorrow as part of a balanced portfolio. Moreover, since the stock market has experienced a severe downturn lately, biotech companies may be the only stocks that can go against the tide.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Market Commentary: DOW Down 273, SP500 Off 30, NASDAQ Off 70
Market Commentary: DOW Down 273, SP500 Off 30, NASDAQ Off 70
Here is an outstanding article about the triple digit loss of the Dow on October 7, 2014. We may have further downside. Even though the U.S. economy is doing okay, Europe is not doing well, and the rest of the world has the ability to affect the stock market. Accumulating cash is a very good idea until the market turns around. Then, the 3X mid-cap ETF, MIDU, might have a good November-December run. The only question will be knowing where the bottom is for MIDU and the market. If $NYMO hits -80 or greater, we should at least get an oversold bounce.
Here is an outstanding article about the triple digit loss of the Dow on October 7, 2014. We may have further downside. Even though the U.S. economy is doing okay, Europe is not doing well, and the rest of the world has the ability to affect the stock market. Accumulating cash is a very good idea until the market turns around. Then, the 3X mid-cap ETF, MIDU, might have a good November-December run. The only question will be knowing where the bottom is for MIDU and the market. If $NYMO hits -80 or greater, we should at least get an oversold bounce.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
Is The Stock Market Finally Ready To Fall? | Seeking Alpha
Is The Stock Market Finally Ready To Fall? | Seeking Alpha
This is a very good article about why we must be cautious in today's stock market. While large cap stocks like Apple have been able to send the market higher at times, most of the NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages according to the $NYA200R chart. If the economy was doing poorly, we would probably be headed for an outright bear market.
However, the economy is doing well, and stocks have a chance to move higher for at least the next year. Since the S&P 500 is only up around 6% this year, you can expect continued meager gains unfortunately. You should also enter stop-loss orders for your most volatile stocks so that you can sleep better at night and to protect yourself if things suddenly turn very bad.
This is a very good article about why we must be cautious in today's stock market. While large cap stocks like Apple have been able to send the market higher at times, most of the NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages according to the $NYA200R chart. If the economy was doing poorly, we would probably be headed for an outright bear market.
However, the economy is doing well, and stocks have a chance to move higher for at least the next year. Since the S&P 500 is only up around 6% this year, you can expect continued meager gains unfortunately. You should also enter stop-loss orders for your most volatile stocks so that you can sleep better at night and to protect yourself if things suddenly turn very bad.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
The market finally snaps- MSN Money
The market finally snaps- MSN Money
Here is an excellent article about why the market had a huge sell-off on Thursday, September 25. The Dow was down 264 points, and the Nasdaq was down even more percentage-wise. Apple has major problems with the iPhone 6 and more Russian trouble appeared possible. It will be interesting to see if buy-the-dip investors step in now. You don't want to be in triple long ETFs anymore like TQQQ and SPXL. You'll be down 6% for every 2% drop in the market.
Here is an excellent article about why the market had a huge sell-off on Thursday, September 25. The Dow was down 264 points, and the Nasdaq was down even more percentage-wise. Apple has major problems with the iPhone 6 and more Russian trouble appeared possible. It will be interesting to see if buy-the-dip investors step in now. You don't want to be in triple long ETFs anymore like TQQQ and SPXL. You'll be down 6% for every 2% drop in the market.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
FV: An Undiscovered ETF Which Has Outperformed The S&P 500 For The Last 3 Months - First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF (NASDAQ:FV) | Seeking Alpha
FV: An Undiscovered ETF Which Has Outperformed The S&P 500 For The Last 3 Months - First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF (NASDAQ:FV) | Seeking Alpha
This is a great article on a new sector rotation fund called FV. It has outperformed the S&P 500 in the past 3 months by a wide margin. The top five sectors currently are biotech, healthcare, internet, staples, and discretionary. This is a super fund which will keep you invested in the best sectors through momentum and technical analysis. There is no need for you to figure it out yourself while these guys are outperforming the market in a diversified fashion.
This is a great article on a new sector rotation fund called FV. It has outperformed the S&P 500 in the past 3 months by a wide margin. The top five sectors currently are biotech, healthcare, internet, staples, and discretionary. This is a super fund which will keep you invested in the best sectors through momentum and technical analysis. There is no need for you to figure it out yourself while these guys are outperforming the market in a diversified fashion.
When Will Interest Rates Rise And What Will Cause Them To Rise? | Seeking Alpha
When Will Interest Rates Rise And What Will Cause Them To Rise? | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article on why inflation will stay low along with interest rates. As the old saying goes, "when interest is low, stocks will grow." Everyone knows that stocks are overbought, but bonds and savings accounts are paying a lot less than stocks. Therefore, stocks will continue to rise in spite of everything because there is no better alternative.
Banks are holding their money and they are not making loans to individuals. Credit is a whole lot tighter since the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Moreover, banks are not loaning to corporations either because they don't have much confidence in the economy. So, there is no pressure on interest rates to rise.
Here is an outstanding article on why inflation will stay low along with interest rates. As the old saying goes, "when interest is low, stocks will grow." Everyone knows that stocks are overbought, but bonds and savings accounts are paying a lot less than stocks. Therefore, stocks will continue to rise in spite of everything because there is no better alternative.
Banks are holding their money and they are not making loans to individuals. Credit is a whole lot tighter since the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Moreover, banks are not loaning to corporations either because they don't have much confidence in the economy. So, there is no pressure on interest rates to rise.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
A Rational Look At Stock Market Risk | Seeking Alpha
A Rational Look At Stock Market Risk | Seeking Alpha
Chris Ciovacco has written a very good article about how charts show that we are still in an uptrend even after two days of heavy losses. SPY (S&P 500) was compared to AGG (bonds) in both risk-on and risk-off scenarios. We are still clearly safe. A lot of extra cash is sitting on the sidelines, too. So, the buy-the-dip people will eventually run the market up again. Stocks are paying more than bonds, and the economy is okay.
Chris Ciovacco has written a very good article about how charts show that we are still in an uptrend even after two days of heavy losses. SPY (S&P 500) was compared to AGG (bonds) in both risk-on and risk-off scenarios. We are still clearly safe. A lot of extra cash is sitting on the sidelines, too. So, the buy-the-dip people will eventually run the market up again. Stocks are paying more than bonds, and the economy is okay.
Sunday, September 21, 2014
The Birth Of 3 New Bull Markets | Seeking Alpha
The Birth Of 3 New Bull Markets | Seeking Alpha
Here is an excellent article about three new bull markets: India, China, and Brazil. The author is investing in the new bull markets through an ETF called ADRE. In this way, you have good diversification in emerging markets. India is the strongest of the new bull markets. IFN, the India Fund, is up almost 50% in the last 12 months. I am buying ADRE and IFN on Monday morning to take part in the new emerging market bull trends.
Here is an excellent article about three new bull markets: India, China, and Brazil. The author is investing in the new bull markets through an ETF called ADRE. In this way, you have good diversification in emerging markets. India is the strongest of the new bull markets. IFN, the India Fund, is up almost 50% in the last 12 months. I am buying ADRE and IFN on Monday morning to take part in the new emerging market bull trends.
Diversification At Its Best - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
Diversification At Its Best - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
This is an outstanding article about the value of holding bonds through TLT while also being in the stock market through the S&P 500 (SPY). Since 1992, holding 100% of either TLT or SPY resulted in almost the same return with less volatility in TLT. Wynn Capital believes that stocks have a greater possibility of decline than bonds even though some people say the bond bull run is over. In other words, as interest rates rise, the capital gain loss in TLT will probably be minimal compared to a greater possible loss in stocks.
The author presented data that showed an 80/20 SPY/TLT allocation resulted in an annual gain of 9.8%, which was more gain than SPY alone with a lot less volatility. The portfolio was balanced each January. For example, using 2013-2014, the higher gain SPY was reduced from 2013 while TLT was increased in 2014, and this re-balancing was spot-on for this year since TLT is up significantly. Each year one asset is bought at a discount while the other asset is sold at a premium.
Next, the author ran the numbers on a 60/40 SPY/TLT allocation, and the annual gain was still 9.8% while the volatility was reduced to almost as much as TLT alone! Then, the author did a 40/60 SPY/TLT ratio to cap things off, and the annual gain was only slightly lower at 9.5% while the maximum draw-down dropped all the way to 16% which was lower than TLT alone. So, this article shows the great importance of always holding a significant portion of bonds through TLT.
This is an outstanding article about the value of holding bonds through TLT while also being in the stock market through the S&P 500 (SPY). Since 1992, holding 100% of either TLT or SPY resulted in almost the same return with less volatility in TLT. Wynn Capital believes that stocks have a greater possibility of decline than bonds even though some people say the bond bull run is over. In other words, as interest rates rise, the capital gain loss in TLT will probably be minimal compared to a greater possible loss in stocks.
The author presented data that showed an 80/20 SPY/TLT allocation resulted in an annual gain of 9.8%, which was more gain than SPY alone with a lot less volatility. The portfolio was balanced each January. For example, using 2013-2014, the higher gain SPY was reduced from 2013 while TLT was increased in 2014, and this re-balancing was spot-on for this year since TLT is up significantly. Each year one asset is bought at a discount while the other asset is sold at a premium.
Next, the author ran the numbers on a 60/40 SPY/TLT allocation, and the annual gain was still 9.8% while the volatility was reduced to almost as much as TLT alone! Then, the author did a 40/60 SPY/TLT ratio to cap things off, and the annual gain was only slightly lower at 9.5% while the maximum draw-down dropped all the way to 16% which was lower than TLT alone. So, this article shows the great importance of always holding a significant portion of bonds through TLT.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
September 2014 Philly Fed Business Outlook Index Declines But Still Shows Strong Growth
September 2014 Philly Fed Business Outlook Index Declines But Still Shows Strong Growth
Here is a very important article about the Philly Fed business outlook along with other economic statistics. The Philly Fed number for September was +22.5 which shows a strong economy. The article also included statistics from other regions of the country along with a Federal Reserve chart called NAICS, Industrial Production: Manufacturing.
The NAICS chart in particular illustrated that we are nowhere near a recession. This is why I remain bullish on the stock market while other uncertainties exist such as being overbought. We may indeed have shallow corrections, but I doubt we would enter a bear market while the economy is doing well.
Here is a very important article about the Philly Fed business outlook along with other economic statistics. The Philly Fed number for September was +22.5 which shows a strong economy. The article also included statistics from other regions of the country along with a Federal Reserve chart called NAICS, Industrial Production: Manufacturing.
The NAICS chart in particular illustrated that we are nowhere near a recession. This is why I remain bullish on the stock market while other uncertainties exist such as being overbought. We may indeed have shallow corrections, but I doubt we would enter a bear market while the economy is doing well.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
This is a bullish article about Tesla. The author gave many facts to back up his position. I am bullish on Tesla, too. I especially liked the author's bullish target of $366. This is basically in line with other analysts who have price targets ranging from $320 to $400.
This is a bullish article about Tesla. The author gave many facts to back up his position. I am bullish on Tesla, too. I especially liked the author's bullish target of $366. This is basically in line with other analysts who have price targets ranging from $320 to $400.
Why You Should Shift From Profits To Protection | Seeking Alpha
Why You Should Shift From Profits To Protection | Seeking Alpha
Here is an interesting and controversial bearish article. Both the author and the people who made comments were worth listening to. I agree with the author that the real estate market is shaky. However, I agree with some of the people who commented that the Baltic Dry index is actually pointing up. So, I believe we should be buying the dips on quality stocks.
In addition, the author's table on 10% pullbacks was very informative. Since the economy is doing okay, and pullbacks should be less than 10% statistically, we should not be afraid to stay with stocks. I think the worst decline this year was only 6% back around the first part of February.
Here is an interesting and controversial bearish article. Both the author and the people who made comments were worth listening to. I agree with the author that the real estate market is shaky. However, I agree with some of the people who commented that the Baltic Dry index is actually pointing up. So, I believe we should be buying the dips on quality stocks.
In addition, the author's table on 10% pullbacks was very informative. Since the economy is doing okay, and pullbacks should be less than 10% statistically, we should not be afraid to stay with stocks. I think the worst decline this year was only 6% back around the first part of February.
Is A Big Move In Stocks Coming Soon? | Seeking Alpha
Is A Big Move In Stocks Coming Soon? | Seeking Alpha
Chris Ciovacco has written an amazing article about how to make sense of stock market moves. We should not be guessing about the stock market direction. As Chris has often said, we need to keep an open mind.
The author used a great example of looking at the 50-day line of various charts to see if the trend is flat or something else. Usually stocks will go either up or down after an indecisive period. We also need to consider the fundamentals for the probability of where stocks will go next.
Chris used the Dow and the NYSE Composite ($NYA) to illustrate the danger that could be lurking since they are both flat. We are making new highs once in a while due to strong stocks in major indexes. How long can the large caps carry everyone else, though? On the flip side, the economy is doing well, and the Federal Reserve is still on our side. So, I am slightly bullish on stocks, and the best place to be is with the large caps until conditions change.
Chris Ciovacco has written an amazing article about how to make sense of stock market moves. We should not be guessing about the stock market direction. As Chris has often said, we need to keep an open mind.
The author used a great example of looking at the 50-day line of various charts to see if the trend is flat or something else. Usually stocks will go either up or down after an indecisive period. We also need to consider the fundamentals for the probability of where stocks will go next.
Chris used the Dow and the NYSE Composite ($NYA) to illustrate the danger that could be lurking since they are both flat. We are making new highs once in a while due to strong stocks in major indexes. How long can the large caps carry everyone else, though? On the flip side, the economy is doing well, and the Federal Reserve is still on our side. So, I am slightly bullish on stocks, and the best place to be is with the large caps until conditions change.
Millennials: Bonds Aren't Just For Old People | Seeking Alpha
Millennials: Bonds Aren't Just For Old People | Seeking Alpha
This is a very good article explaining how bonds should be a part of each investor's portfolio. If a reasonable allocation of bonds is chosen, the result will not be much different from a person who is successful with stocks only. The balanced investor will also be able to sleep better at night, and he will not have to worry as much when bear markets come around. A properly allocated portfolio will keep a person interested in the stock market. This will also keep people from sitting on the sidelines in cash for years because they are afraid of stocks. They will actually be making money from their investments instead of losing it by being in cash.
This is a very good article explaining how bonds should be a part of each investor's portfolio. If a reasonable allocation of bonds is chosen, the result will not be much different from a person who is successful with stocks only. The balanced investor will also be able to sleep better at night, and he will not have to worry as much when bear markets come around. A properly allocated portfolio will keep a person interested in the stock market. This will also keep people from sitting on the sidelines in cash for years because they are afraid of stocks. They will actually be making money from their investments instead of losing it by being in cash.
Is A Stealth Liquidation In Stocks Underway? | Seeking Alpha
Is A Stealth Liquidation In Stocks Underway? | Seeking Alpha
Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article on why we need to be cautious in the stock market. While it is true that large caps seem to be making new highs quite often, Eric believes that trouble is brewing under the surface. For example, different asset classes are going down along with weak stock sectors. Government bonds (TLT) usually are bought when stocks go down. However, Eric pointed out that it looks like we have a liquidation scenario where investors are hoarding cash instead. So, we need to be cautious about the stock market. I own mostly large cap stocks and dividend stocks myself, but I am constantly monitoring charts and fundamentals in case I need to exit stocks.
Eric Parnell has written an outstanding article on why we need to be cautious in the stock market. While it is true that large caps seem to be making new highs quite often, Eric believes that trouble is brewing under the surface. For example, different asset classes are going down along with weak stock sectors. Government bonds (TLT) usually are bought when stocks go down. However, Eric pointed out that it looks like we have a liquidation scenario where investors are hoarding cash instead. So, we need to be cautious about the stock market. I own mostly large cap stocks and dividend stocks myself, but I am constantly monitoring charts and fundamentals in case I need to exit stocks.
Facebook Inc. To Benefit Most From Ad Dollars Shift, Twitter Second - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha
Facebook Inc. To Benefit Most From Ad Dollars Shift, Twitter Second - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an excellent article highlighting Facebook and Twitter. Both companies will continue to grow, especially by making money through mobile ads. I own stock in FB and TWTR, and I will continue to hold. If we have a big pullback, I will probably buy more shares.
Here is an excellent article highlighting Facebook and Twitter. Both companies will continue to grow, especially by making money through mobile ads. I own stock in FB and TWTR, and I will continue to hold. If we have a big pullback, I will probably buy more shares.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
U.S. Sector Momentum ETN Jumps 200% in One Month - Yahoo Finance
U.S. Sector Momentum ETN Jumps 200% in One Month - Yahoo Finance
This is a link to the hottest stock in the market, EEH. It is a large cap momentum ETN. It has a low volume, but it has been making great returns for the few investors who jumped on it in the past month. Of course, it is overvalued now, but no one knows where the top is for EEH. The momentum sector tracking and trading that EEH is supposed to be doing is incredible. It is probably worth at least a little of your portfolio money.
This is a link to the hottest stock in the market, EEH. It is a large cap momentum ETN. It has a low volume, but it has been making great returns for the few investors who jumped on it in the past month. Of course, it is overvalued now, but no one knows where the top is for EEH. The momentum sector tracking and trading that EEH is supposed to be doing is incredible. It is probably worth at least a little of your portfolio money.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Kandi Technologies: Accelerating Growth Ahead! - Kandi Technologies, Corp (NASDAQ:KNDI) | Seeking Alpha
Kandi Technologies: Accelerating Growth Ahead! - Kandi Technologies, Corp (NASDAQ:KNDI) | Seeking Alpha
Here is a very good article about Kandi, the Chinese electric car company. The author presented numerous facts that point to a sizable gain in the stock price sometime in the future. I don't really know why the price is so depressed currently, but patient investors will probably be rewarded. I own shares of KNDI myself although it is very frustrating at times. When you look at the general stock market lately, it has not been doing too well either. A diversified portfolio is the best protection, and I am making money on dividend stocks like ROYT while I wait to see what the market will do next.
Here is a very good article about Kandi, the Chinese electric car company. The author presented numerous facts that point to a sizable gain in the stock price sometime in the future. I don't really know why the price is so depressed currently, but patient investors will probably be rewarded. I own shares of KNDI myself although it is very frustrating at times. When you look at the general stock market lately, it has not been doing too well either. A diversified portfolio is the best protection, and I am making money on dividend stocks like ROYT while I wait to see what the market will do next.
Markets Will Stagnate as the Fed Exits
Markets Will Stagnate as the Fed Exits
Lance Roberts had written a sobering article about the dangers of today's stock market. Since no one knows where the top will be, the decline on the other side will take a lot of people by surprise. The best possible picture is that we can expect smaller and smaller annual returns before the market collapses. TLT, the long-term treasury bond ETF, is probably one of the safest stocks to own nowadays. TNDQ, the Nasdaq TrendPilot ETF, is another good one. Whenever the market starts to fall, TNDQ will switch over to treasury bills at around the 100-day loss line. We need to be more careful than ever in today's stock market.
Lance Roberts had written a sobering article about the dangers of today's stock market. Since no one knows where the top will be, the decline on the other side will take a lot of people by surprise. The best possible picture is that we can expect smaller and smaller annual returns before the market collapses. TLT, the long-term treasury bond ETF, is probably one of the safest stocks to own nowadays. TNDQ, the Nasdaq TrendPilot ETF, is another good one. Whenever the market starts to fall, TNDQ will switch over to treasury bills at around the 100-day loss line. We need to be more careful than ever in today's stock market.
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Profitable Thoughts On Market Breadth And Market Timing | Seeking Alpha
Profitable Thoughts On Market Breadth And Market Timing | Seeking Alpha
Fred Piard has written an outstanding article about how to make the best of the stock market based on what the S&P 500 (SPY) is doing. For example, if you are coming off a stock market bottom, you should buy when 25% of the S&P 500 stocks are above the 200-day line. You continue to hold stocks until 25% of the S&P stocks decline from wherever they were. Then, you buy stocks again when 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are above the 200-day line. Fred also showed a chart of how your money is protected while you are sitting on the sidelines during times when everybody else is losing money.
Fred Piard has written an outstanding article about how to make the best of the stock market based on what the S&P 500 (SPY) is doing. For example, if you are coming off a stock market bottom, you should buy when 25% of the S&P 500 stocks are above the 200-day line. You continue to hold stocks until 25% of the S&P stocks decline from wherever they were. Then, you buy stocks again when 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are above the 200-day line. Fred also showed a chart of how your money is protected while you are sitting on the sidelines during times when everybody else is losing money.
Countdown To Another Market Peak Has Begun: Update | Seeking Alpha
Countdown To Another Market Peak Has Begun: Update | Seeking Alpha
Chris Puplava has written an excellent article article how we are not yet at a stock market top. Inflation is low, and we are nowhere near a recession according to another indicator. Thirdly, the ISM is at 59.0 which means we are not having any manufacturing problems. Thus, the bull will probably keep running into 2015 at least, although we could have pullbacks.
Chris Puplava has written an excellent article article how we are not yet at a stock market top. Inflation is low, and we are nowhere near a recession according to another indicator. Thirdly, the ISM is at 59.0 which means we are not having any manufacturing problems. Thus, the bull will probably keep running into 2015 at least, although we could have pullbacks.
Weekend Market Commentary: Saturday Edition
Weekend Market Commentary: Saturday Edition
This is a very interesting article about still being bullish on the stock market. I believe it will be necessary to pick the right stocks, though. Everything will not go up like the past five years. As I mentioned in another blog article, I believe the U.S. dollar will be a good bet, and I am planning to buy the 3x U.S. dollar ETF, UUPT, this next week.
This is a very interesting article about still being bullish on the stock market. I believe it will be necessary to pick the right stocks, though. Everything will not go up like the past five years. As I mentioned in another blog article, I believe the U.S. dollar will be a good bet, and I am planning to buy the 3x U.S. dollar ETF, UUPT, this next week.
Tell-Tale Signs Of A Market Top | Seeking Alpha
Tell-Tale Signs Of A Market Top | Seeking Alpha
This is a good article about various signs that occur at a stock market top. No one can pick the exact moment of the peak, but I agree with the author that we are approaching the top. Retail sales are not in trouble yet. However, the real estate market is getting shaky. When the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates, that will kill the housing market because people will no longer be able to buy. It is already hard even now because of the required large down-payments. We certainly need to be cautious about stocks now.
This is a good article about various signs that occur at a stock market top. No one can pick the exact moment of the peak, but I agree with the author that we are approaching the top. Retail sales are not in trouble yet. However, the real estate market is getting shaky. When the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates, that will kill the housing market because people will no longer be able to buy. It is already hard even now because of the required large down-payments. We certainly need to be cautious about stocks now.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
How To Use Money Supply Statistics For Market Predictions | Seeking Alpha
How To Use Money Supply Statistics For Market Predictions | Seeking Alpha
Here is a very good article about the importance of paying attention to the money supply as measured by Federal Reserve M2 statistics. If the money supply is growing, that is bullish for stocks. If the money supply is flat or falling, that is bearish. I have been watching a Federal Reserve graph of the money supply for quite some time, and I have noticed that the chart of the money supply has gone flat like the author mentioned. This is definitely a time to be defensive about stocks. Moreover, I am planning to buy the 3x dollar long ETF called UUPT this next week. The U.S. dollar will actually go up in a time of crisis, and UUPT will become my biggest holding when I buy it next week.
Here is a very good article about the importance of paying attention to the money supply as measured by Federal Reserve M2 statistics. If the money supply is growing, that is bullish for stocks. If the money supply is flat or falling, that is bearish. I have been watching a Federal Reserve graph of the money supply for quite some time, and I have noticed that the chart of the money supply has gone flat like the author mentioned. This is definitely a time to be defensive about stocks. Moreover, I am planning to buy the 3x dollar long ETF called UUPT this next week. The U.S. dollar will actually go up in a time of crisis, and UUPT will become my biggest holding when I buy it next week.
Real Estate Shorts Are In Play | Seeking Alpha
Real Estate Shorts Are In Play | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article about how to protect yourself when real estate stocks fall. The author recommended a double short real estate ETF called SRS. If you are like me, you love the high-paying dividend REIT stocks. The danger in holding them is the loss of your principal money. I plan to buy SRS this next week to offset any loss of principal on my REIT stocks. In this way, the capital gains and losses will offset each other while I continue to collect my double-digit dividends.
This is an excellent article about how to protect yourself when real estate stocks fall. The author recommended a double short real estate ETF called SRS. If you are like me, you love the high-paying dividend REIT stocks. The danger in holding them is the loss of your principal money. I plan to buy SRS this next week to offset any loss of principal on my REIT stocks. In this way, the capital gains and losses will offset each other while I continue to collect my double-digit dividends.
Friday, September 12, 2014
This could be the trade of the decade
This could be the trade of the decade
Here is an very good article on why the U.S. dollar is the buy of the decade. You can enter this investment through UUP, the U.S. dollar ETF, or through UUPT, a 3x dollar long ETF. I plan to buy UUPT this next week to maximize my profits.
The dollar is strong now for a number of reasons. First, the Federal Reserve is planning on tightening the money supply, and this alone is good for the dollar. Secondly, Japan is easing its money policies, and this will weaken the yen. Thirdly, the euro is getting weaker because Europe is keeping rates very low, and there is no sign for an end to European economic problems.
Here is an very good article on why the U.S. dollar is the buy of the decade. You can enter this investment through UUP, the U.S. dollar ETF, or through UUPT, a 3x dollar long ETF. I plan to buy UUPT this next week to maximize my profits.
The dollar is strong now for a number of reasons. First, the Federal Reserve is planning on tightening the money supply, and this alone is good for the dollar. Secondly, Japan is easing its money policies, and this will weaken the yen. Thirdly, the euro is getting weaker because Europe is keeping rates very low, and there is no sign for an end to European economic problems.
10 Nasdaq stocks with returns of at least 240% in 2014 - MarketWatch
10 Nasdaq stocks with returns of at least 240% in 2014 - MarketWatch
This is an outstanding article about how the Nasdaq is back as the best stock index to own. It has outperformed the S&P 500 this year. The article lists 10 stocks that have gained more than 200% in a low gain year for stocks. BIOF is the top gainer, and it is over 49% owned by Greenlight Capital which is a very good sign.
Another big gainer was SCOK, Sino Coking. This company turns coal into synthetic gas. CBMG has an osteoarthritis knee drug. ICPT has a fast track liver treatment drug. I am thinking about buying all four of these stocks in the near future. Currently, I am invested in the Nasdaq through TNQT, a Nasdaq 100 trend following stock that also protects on the downside. Another idea is to buy the Nasdaq on pullbacks through TQQQ, a 3x Nasdaq ETF.
This is an outstanding article about how the Nasdaq is back as the best stock index to own. It has outperformed the S&P 500 this year. The article lists 10 stocks that have gained more than 200% in a low gain year for stocks. BIOF is the top gainer, and it is over 49% owned by Greenlight Capital which is a very good sign.
Another big gainer was SCOK, Sino Coking. This company turns coal into synthetic gas. CBMG has an osteoarthritis knee drug. ICPT has a fast track liver treatment drug. I am thinking about buying all four of these stocks in the near future. Currently, I am invested in the Nasdaq through TNQT, a Nasdaq 100 trend following stock that also protects on the downside. Another idea is to buy the Nasdaq on pullbacks through TQQQ, a 3x Nasdaq ETF.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Why Penn Virginia (PVA) Has Huge Upside Potential
Why Penn Virginia (PVA) Has Huge Upside Potential
Here is an excellent article on two oil companies operating in the Eagle Ford section of Texas. I like both of the companies, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Penn Virginia (PVA). However, now is probably not a good time to buy them. Wait for a big pullback where it looks like they will not go any lower. Then, you should be rewarded as long as the fundamentals are still good.
Here is an excellent article on two oil companies operating in the Eagle Ford section of Texas. I like both of the companies, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Penn Virginia (PVA). However, now is probably not a good time to buy them. Wait for a big pullback where it looks like they will not go any lower. Then, you should be rewarded as long as the fundamentals are still good.
How to Invest in America's Largest Oil-Producing Region
How to Invest in America's Largest Oil-Producing Region
This is a good article on oil production in the Permian Basin of Texas. According to the author, it is now the biggest source of oil in America, topping the Bakken and Eagle Ford. Three companies were mentioned in the article that are the area's largest producers. I like Apache (APA) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD).
This is a good article on oil production in the Permian Basin of Texas. According to the author, it is now the biggest source of oil in America, topping the Bakken and Eagle Ford. Three companies were mentioned in the article that are the area's largest producers. I like Apache (APA) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD).
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Market Commentary: SP500 down -0.65%, largest Drop In Five Weeks
Market Commentary: SP500 down -0.65%, largest Drop In Five Weeks
Gary at www.econintersect.com has written a very good commentary on the stock market after we just finished the biggest drop in five weeks. The major indicators are not yet bearish, but it could be somewhat scary if the market continues to fall. Chris Ciovacco said that one of his indicators, XLY, was still bullish. As long as this consumer discretionary ETF holds above 67.06, we are okay according to Chris. I also agree with Gary and Chris because the recent ISM number was 59.0, and that means we are not anywhere near any economic trouble.
Gary at www.econintersect.com has written a very good commentary on the stock market after we just finished the biggest drop in five weeks. The major indicators are not yet bearish, but it could be somewhat scary if the market continues to fall. Chris Ciovacco said that one of his indicators, XLY, was still bullish. As long as this consumer discretionary ETF holds above 67.06, we are okay according to Chris. I also agree with Gary and Chris because the recent ISM number was 59.0, and that means we are not anywhere near any economic trouble.
Monday, September 8, 2014
A Prudent Portfolio For A Melt Up Or Melt Down | Seeking Alpha
A Prudent Portfolio For A Melt Up Or Melt Down | Seeking Alpha
Here is an excellent article to make the most of a stock market that melts up as well as providing downside protection. I especially like the 40% concentration in the Nasdaq 100 Trendpilot ETN (TNDQ). If the Nasdaq goes up, you keep making money. If the Nasdaq goes below its 100 day line for more than five days, the fund switches over to 3-month treasuries.
The author also presented a back-tested chart going back to 1999 where TNDQ protected during two major bear markets, and it soundly beat the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 during upside trends. The stock has also risen around 29% in the past year. I am so convinced about TNDQ that I am buying it tomorrow.
Here is an excellent article to make the most of a stock market that melts up as well as providing downside protection. I especially like the 40% concentration in the Nasdaq 100 Trendpilot ETN (TNDQ). If the Nasdaq goes up, you keep making money. If the Nasdaq goes below its 100 day line for more than five days, the fund switches over to 3-month treasuries.
The author also presented a back-tested chart going back to 1999 where TNDQ protected during two major bear markets, and it soundly beat the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 during upside trends. The stock has also risen around 29% in the past year. I am so convinced about TNDQ that I am buying it tomorrow.
Sunday, September 7, 2014
MeetMe: Speculative Play On Social Media And Mobile App Growth - MeetMe, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEET) | Seeking Alpha
MeetMe: Speculative Play On Social Media And Mobile App Growth - MeetMe, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEET) | Seeking Alpha
This is a comprehensive article about MeetMe, (MEET), another social network company. It has a unique way of introducing you to people. I own shares of the company for the speculative part of my portfolio. As the author stated, the stock price base appears to be around the low $2 range. Be aware that no one knows yet how much MEET can grow. Revenues are growing, but questions remain as to whether or not it can beat the S&P 500.
This is a comprehensive article about MeetMe, (MEET), another social network company. It has a unique way of introducing you to people. I own shares of the company for the speculative part of my portfolio. As the author stated, the stock price base appears to be around the low $2 range. Be aware that no one knows yet how much MEET can grow. Revenues are growing, but questions remain as to whether or not it can beat the S&P 500.
Friday, September 5, 2014
Rising Risks In The Quest For Yield | Seeking Alpha
Rising Risks In The Quest For Yield | Seeking Alpha
Eric Parnell has written an interesting article that warns about the danger of reaching for yield. I respect Eric a lot, but one of the dividend stocks that he mentioned has done very well in the past year. DVY has gained around 20% in addition to paying a 3% dividend. I agree with Eric that we need to be safe around stock market tops, but DVY is too good to pass up. Since the latest ISM economic report was at a safe 59.0, I plan to buy DVY for the gain although I will be keeping an eye open for the exits, too.
Eric Parnell has written an interesting article that warns about the danger of reaching for yield. I respect Eric a lot, but one of the dividend stocks that he mentioned has done very well in the past year. DVY has gained around 20% in addition to paying a 3% dividend. I agree with Eric that we need to be safe around stock market tops, but DVY is too good to pass up. Since the latest ISM economic report was at a safe 59.0, I plan to buy DVY for the gain although I will be keeping an eye open for the exits, too.
Another Bond Market Conundrum? | Seeking Alpha
Another Bond Market Conundrum? | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article on why long-term treasury bonds have low yields. One reason given was the deflation in Europe due to economic and security issues there since the Russia-Ukraine conflict is far from being resolved although the author did not actually mention the conflict. He just talked about economic issues.
Secondly, another reason that investors are buying long-term bonds is that many people think that the stock market is at a top here in the U.S. Therefore, they are buying bonds for protection. The author seemed to think U.S. conditions were improving, but Europeans were attracted to U.S. treasuries. His discussions of economic issues and bond basics were very good. In view of these fundamentals, it would be a good idea to own some bonds now as part of a diversified portfolio. I own TLT and TMF for some protection while I am long on high-paying dividend stocks like ARR and MORL.
This is an excellent article on why long-term treasury bonds have low yields. One reason given was the deflation in Europe due to economic and security issues there since the Russia-Ukraine conflict is far from being resolved although the author did not actually mention the conflict. He just talked about economic issues.
Secondly, another reason that investors are buying long-term bonds is that many people think that the stock market is at a top here in the U.S. Therefore, they are buying bonds for protection. The author seemed to think U.S. conditions were improving, but Europeans were attracted to U.S. treasuries. His discussions of economic issues and bond basics were very good. In view of these fundamentals, it would be a good idea to own some bonds now as part of a diversified portfolio. I own TLT and TMF for some protection while I am long on high-paying dividend stocks like ARR and MORL.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
How Twitter And Facebook Survive - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha
How Twitter And Facebook Survive - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha
Here is a very good article on why Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) are worth holding. I own both stocks myself. The author talked about how Facebook and Twitter keep reinventing themselves to stay ahead of the curve and to increase profits. Both companies are also expected to get into E-commerce soon with a Buy button. This will really increase sales. I am holding onto FB and TWTR because there is no telling how far they can go.
Here is a very good article on why Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) are worth holding. I own both stocks myself. The author talked about how Facebook and Twitter keep reinventing themselves to stay ahead of the curve and to increase profits. Both companies are also expected to get into E-commerce soon with a Buy button. This will really increase sales. I am holding onto FB and TWTR because there is no telling how far they can go.
4 Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs Do 20% To 25% Late August Upsides | Seeking Alpha
4 Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs Do 20% To 25% Late August Upsides | Seeking Alpha
This is a very valuable update for high-dividend monthly-paying stocks. I own three of the author's top ten picks: ARR, ROYT, and LNCO. PSEC is another good dividend stock on the list, and I may buy it again in the future. Capital gain upside is also predicted for these stocks in addition to huge dividends paid on a monthly basis.
This is a very valuable update for high-dividend monthly-paying stocks. I own three of the author's top ten picks: ARR, ROYT, and LNCO. PSEC is another good dividend stock on the list, and I may buy it again in the future. Capital gain upside is also predicted for these stocks in addition to huge dividends paid on a monthly basis.
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Pump Profits with These Alpha-Generating ETFs - Yahoo Finance
Pump Profits with These Alpha-Generating ETFs - Yahoo Finance
Here is a very good article about three ETFs that have a high alpha rating. This rating is a percentage of how much the ETF has outperformed the major benchmark index for its area. For example, FXG, a consumer staples ETF has an alpha of 5% meaning it has beaten its benchmark index by that much so far this year. FXG is up 12% year-to-date. This is probably a good ETF to own since general market returns will probably be lower this year compared to 2013.
Here is a very good article about three ETFs that have a high alpha rating. This rating is a percentage of how much the ETF has outperformed the major benchmark index for its area. For example, FXG, a consumer staples ETF has an alpha of 5% meaning it has beaten its benchmark index by that much so far this year. FXG is up 12% year-to-date. This is probably a good ETF to own since general market returns will probably be lower this year compared to 2013.
First Trust Cons. Staples Alpha ETF Chart - Yahoo! Finance
First Trust Cons. Staples Alpha ETF Chart - Yahoo! Finance
Here is an interesting Yahoo chart about a consumer staples ETF that has gained 23% in the past 12 months. FXG may continue to do well regardless of how the economy performs. Notice in the chart below that FXG had a huge volume buying spike in August. When these skyscraper volume spikes occur in a fairly flat volume environment, it usually means a big price gain is coming soon. Consumer staples are also safe most of the time, and they do better than most stocks in recessions. Click on the chart below to expand it.
Here is an interesting Yahoo chart about a consumer staples ETF that has gained 23% in the past 12 months. FXG may continue to do well regardless of how the economy performs. Notice in the chart below that FXG had a huge volume buying spike in August. When these skyscraper volume spikes occur in a fairly flat volume environment, it usually means a big price gain is coming soon. Consumer staples are also safe most of the time, and they do better than most stocks in recessions. Click on the chart below to expand it.
Bonds Begin A Downtrend
TLT fell hard on Tuesday, September 2, losing almost $3 per share, and the downturn was still happening on Wednesday morning at the market open. It currently looks like bond prices peak when the interest rate on the ten-year treasury bond falls to 2.34%. I have not seen it go any lower than that recently, and the interest rate is now going up.
Moreover, the economy is continuing to improve dramatically. The ISM Manufacturing Report came in at 59.0 on Tuesday, September 2, and it has not been that high in a long time. So, there is a near zero chance for a recession. This is positive for stocks even while they are overbought. Therefore, I have reduced my long term bond stocks, TLT and TMF, by around half.
What did I do with that money? I bought GoPro (GPRO) stock for one selection because small cameras are a big deal nowadays, especially since police officers will probably have to start wearing body cameras. Secondly, I bought more Armour Residential (ARR) because this REIT stock pays 14% annually in monthly installments. I believe both of these stocks will beat the S&P 500 during the next 12 months.
Moreover, the economy is continuing to improve dramatically. The ISM Manufacturing Report came in at 59.0 on Tuesday, September 2, and it has not been that high in a long time. So, there is a near zero chance for a recession. This is positive for stocks even while they are overbought. Therefore, I have reduced my long term bond stocks, TLT and TMF, by around half.
What did I do with that money? I bought GoPro (GPRO) stock for one selection because small cameras are a big deal nowadays, especially since police officers will probably have to start wearing body cameras. Secondly, I bought more Armour Residential (ARR) because this REIT stock pays 14% annually in monthly installments. I believe both of these stocks will beat the S&P 500 during the next 12 months.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Ukraine military routed as Russia talks tough
Ukraine military routed as Russia talks tough
This is one of the latest stories about the Ukraine-Russia conflict. There is no sign of an end to the fighting. The simplest solution would probably be to let the Russian separatists towns unite with Russia just like Crimea was allowed to do. That may be the only way to avoid a wider and longer conflict.
This is one of the latest stories about the Ukraine-Russia conflict. There is no sign of an end to the fighting. The simplest solution would probably be to let the Russian separatists towns unite with Russia just like Crimea was allowed to do. That may be the only way to avoid a wider and longer conflict.
Monday, September 1, 2014
Why Interest Rates Won't Rise - Continued - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) | Seeking Alpha
Why Interest Rates Won't Rise - Continued - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article about why interest rates will remain low. I agree with the author that TLT, the long-term bond ETF, will continue to be a good investment. 23% of my portfolio is invested in TLT and TMF, a 3x long-term bond ETF. Most of the rest of my money is invested in high-paying dividend stocks like CEFL, MORL, ARR, and EHI. All of these dividend stocks pay monthly as well as TLT.
Here is an outstanding article about why interest rates will remain low. I agree with the author that TLT, the long-term bond ETF, will continue to be a good investment. 23% of my portfolio is invested in TLT and TMF, a 3x long-term bond ETF. Most of the rest of my money is invested in high-paying dividend stocks like CEFL, MORL, ARR, and EHI. All of these dividend stocks pay monthly as well as TLT.
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Infographic of the Day: Can Aspirin Help Prevent Cancer?
Infographic of the Day: Can Aspirin Help Prevent Cancer?
This is a very interesting article and graphic illustration on the benefits of aspirin. The bleeding complications of aspirin have been overblown in comparison to the benefits. If aspirin causes you to bleed, you could simply cut back on the dosage or use a buffered type of aspirin. Aspirin is a miracle drug that can be used to prevent cancer and heart disease.
This is a very interesting article and graphic illustration on the benefits of aspirin. The bleeding complications of aspirin have been overblown in comparison to the benefits. If aspirin causes you to bleed, you could simply cut back on the dosage or use a buffered type of aspirin. Aspirin is a miracle drug that can be used to prevent cancer and heart disease.
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Reaffirming The Bullish Thesis For Twitter - Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) | Seeking Alpha
Reaffirming The Bullish Thesis For Twitter - Twitter, Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) | Seeking Alpha
Here is a very good article about Twitter (TWTR). I own shares of the company, and I am excited about the long term prospects. Twitter has dramatically increased their income over the past year, and the company now has positive earnings. Just as Facebook and Google were overvalued by a lot initially, Twitter will most likely grow into a mature company sooner than people may think. I believe the company is a great buy as part of a well diversified portfolio.
Here is a very good article about Twitter (TWTR). I own shares of the company, and I am excited about the long term prospects. Twitter has dramatically increased their income over the past year, and the company now has positive earnings. Just as Facebook and Google were overvalued by a lot initially, Twitter will most likely grow into a mature company sooner than people may think. I believe the company is a great buy as part of a well diversified portfolio.
As stocks rise, so does anxiety: Time to get out?: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money
As stocks rise, so does anxiety: Time to get out?: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money
This is an excellent article which presents the bull and bear cases for stocks. On the bull side, there is nothing significant that could bring stocks down. The economy is getting stronger, not weaker. The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings 8% in 2014 and 12% in 2015. So, earnings are not topped out like some people thought.
In addition, interest rates are low, and the old saying goes that stocks will "grow" under those conditions. Both individuals and businesses can expand with low interest money, and bonds are not attractive with low interest rates. One analyst said that the last seven bull markets did not end until interest rates were higher than 4%. We are nowhere near that scenario now. Thus, we need to make money while we can by being mostly long.
On the bear side, it is definitely true that stocks are overvalued. It is also well known that the Federal Reserve will eventually raise interest rates. Because of these conditions, long term bonds are being bought since many believe we are near a stock market top. We have the unusual scenario that stocks and bonds are rising together because separate groups are buying their favorite assets. I own 20% bonds myself in TMF and TLT, and I am making money on bonds as well as stocks.
This is an excellent article which presents the bull and bear cases for stocks. On the bull side, there is nothing significant that could bring stocks down. The economy is getting stronger, not weaker. The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings 8% in 2014 and 12% in 2015. So, earnings are not topped out like some people thought.
In addition, interest rates are low, and the old saying goes that stocks will "grow" under those conditions. Both individuals and businesses can expand with low interest money, and bonds are not attractive with low interest rates. One analyst said that the last seven bull markets did not end until interest rates were higher than 4%. We are nowhere near that scenario now. Thus, we need to make money while we can by being mostly long.
On the bear side, it is definitely true that stocks are overvalued. It is also well known that the Federal Reserve will eventually raise interest rates. Because of these conditions, long term bonds are being bought since many believe we are near a stock market top. We have the unusual scenario that stocks and bonds are rising together because separate groups are buying their favorite assets. I own 20% bonds myself in TMF and TLT, and I am making money on bonds as well as stocks.
Friday, August 29, 2014
AudioCodes
jkvaluefund
This is a great article about AudioCodes (AUDC). The company is involved with internet packet delivery in various forms such as gateways, routers, and IP phones. It is growing money year over year. It has major partners in Microsoft, Broadsoft, Avaya, and others. Broadsoft alone is involved with 600 service providers, and BSFT is one of the pillars of AudioCodes. AUDC is a good investment as part of a diversified portfolio.
This is a great article about AudioCodes (AUDC). The company is involved with internet packet delivery in various forms such as gateways, routers, and IP phones. It is growing money year over year. It has major partners in Microsoft, Broadsoft, Avaya, and others. Broadsoft alone is involved with 600 service providers, and BSFT is one of the pillars of AudioCodes. AUDC is a good investment as part of a diversified portfolio.
ARMOUR: Time To Get Going - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (NYSE:ARR) | Seeking Alpha
ARMOUR: Time To Get Going - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (NYSE:ARR) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article about Armour Residential (ARR). I own shares of the company, and I plan to buy more in the near future. The 14% dividend is safe, and you get paid on a monthly basis. I believe the stock market in general is getting to the point of only single-digit returns, and ARR will easily beat the market under those conditions.
Here is an outstanding article about Armour Residential (ARR). I own shares of the company, and I plan to buy more in the near future. The 14% dividend is safe, and you get paid on a monthly basis. I believe the stock market in general is getting to the point of only single-digit returns, and ARR will easily beat the market under those conditions.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Parkinson's Breakthrough: Researchers Discover Spice Stops Disease Progression
Parkinson's Breakthrough: Researchers Discover Spice Stops Disease Progression
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. Cinnamon turns out to be an inhibitor of Parkinson's disease. This is great news. The spice can also be used to reduce triglycerides, stop other types of nerve damage like MS in addition to Parkinson's, and it can help reverse diabetes.
Staying up with news on the benefits of herbs and spices can improve your quality of life as well as longevity. For some book reviews on how to help yourself with supplements, you could go to www.cinnamin.net and read about books like Fats That Heal Fats That Kill and others. For example, evening primrose oil can help prevent arthritis and stop nerve degeneration.
As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market. Cinnamon turns out to be an inhibitor of Parkinson's disease. This is great news. The spice can also be used to reduce triglycerides, stop other types of nerve damage like MS in addition to Parkinson's, and it can help reverse diabetes.
Staying up with news on the benefits of herbs and spices can improve your quality of life as well as longevity. For some book reviews on how to help yourself with supplements, you could go to www.cinnamin.net and read about books like Fats That Heal Fats That Kill and others. For example, evening primrose oil can help prevent arthritis and stop nerve degeneration.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Battle for Ukraine's southeast coast heats up
Battle for Ukraine's southeast coast heats up
This is a story with many details that the Ukraine conflict is far from over. With the stock market teetering at a top, continuing bad news from Ukraine could cause a downturn in stocks. The next question would be how far stocks would fall. I am currently making money on government bonds through TLT and TMF because many people and institutions don't trust the stock market. Therefore, bonds are being bought even on days when the market makes a new high on low volume.
This is a story with many details that the Ukraine conflict is far from over. With the stock market teetering at a top, continuing bad news from Ukraine could cause a downturn in stocks. The next question would be how far stocks would fall. I am currently making money on government bonds through TLT and TMF because many people and institutions don't trust the stock market. Therefore, bonds are being bought even on days when the market makes a new high on low volume.
Quantum | Materials Corp
Quantum | Materials Corp
Here is a very interesting company (QTMM) that may be a great speculative buy. You could have made five times your money in the last few months being invested in Quantum Materials. At 23 cents per share, though, the company still has a long way to go in the nano material and solar spaces. They are actually selling products now, too. I plan to buy QTMM tomorrow, and I will probably continue to buy shares whenever I get new money. I believe Quantum Materials is one of the few penny stocks that could make you a fortune.
Here is a very interesting company (QTMM) that may be a great speculative buy. You could have made five times your money in the last few months being invested in Quantum Materials. At 23 cents per share, though, the company still has a long way to go in the nano material and solar spaces. They are actually selling products now, too. I plan to buy QTMM tomorrow, and I will probably continue to buy shares whenever I get new money. I believe Quantum Materials is one of the few penny stocks that could make you a fortune.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Why I'm Passing On Mason Graphite - Mason Graphite Inc. (OTCMKTS:MGPHF) | Seeking Alpha
Why I'm Passing On Mason Graphite - Mason Graphite Inc. (OTCMKTS:MGPHF) | Seeking Alpha
As you probably know, graphite can be used in making electrodes for the batteries of electric powered vehicles. We are also seeing a great expansion in sales of electric and hybrid electric cars. For example, Tesla and Toyota are popular for electric and hybrid cars respectively. So, the graphite miners matter a lot as long as electric car sales are growing.
The author of this article talks about Mason Graphite primarily, and he does not think Mason offers a lot of upside potential. Focus Graphite and Northern Graphite are probably better choices in the graphite space. Focus already has sales of its graphite locked up with a Chinese company contract. Northern is the closest graphite miner to major roads, and transportation costs will be a big factor in the success or failure of graphite miners. Graphite stocks could be one of your best choices in a lackluster stock market as long as you invest in the right company at the right time.
As you probably know, graphite can be used in making electrodes for the batteries of electric powered vehicles. We are also seeing a great expansion in sales of electric and hybrid electric cars. For example, Tesla and Toyota are popular for electric and hybrid cars respectively. So, the graphite miners matter a lot as long as electric car sales are growing.
The author of this article talks about Mason Graphite primarily, and he does not think Mason offers a lot of upside potential. Focus Graphite and Northern Graphite are probably better choices in the graphite space. Focus already has sales of its graphite locked up with a Chinese company contract. Northern is the closest graphite miner to major roads, and transportation costs will be a big factor in the success or failure of graphite miners. Graphite stocks could be one of your best choices in a lackluster stock market as long as you invest in the right company at the right time.
Saturday, August 23, 2014
iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF Is A Great Way To Diversify - iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF (NYSEARCA:AOA) | Seeking Alpha
iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF Is A Great Way To Diversify - iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF (NYSEARCA:AOA) | Seeking Alpha
This is an excellent article about AOA, iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF. The name "aggressive" is somewhat misleading because AOA is actually a "fund of funds" including the S&P 500 (IVV), global stocks, and bonds. Owning this stock is an excellent way to diversify globally and protect yourself. Probably only an outright bear market would sent this broad fund down. It has gained over 13% in the last 12 months although it is questionable how long it will have double digit gains. I believe it will beat the S&P 500 alone, though, and I think it is great for a diversified portfolio. I also recommend double-digit income stocks like CEFL, MORL, and ROYT.
This is an excellent article about AOA, iShares Aggressive Allocation ETF. The name "aggressive" is somewhat misleading because AOA is actually a "fund of funds" including the S&P 500 (IVV), global stocks, and bonds. Owning this stock is an excellent way to diversify globally and protect yourself. Probably only an outright bear market would sent this broad fund down. It has gained over 13% in the last 12 months although it is questionable how long it will have double digit gains. I believe it will beat the S&P 500 alone, though, and I think it is great for a diversified portfolio. I also recommend double-digit income stocks like CEFL, MORL, and ROYT.
Pacific Coast Oil Trust: Regulatory Fears Unfounded, While Units Yield 15% And Sell At A Discount - Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE:ROYT) | Seeking Alpha
Pacific Coast Oil Trust: Regulatory Fears Unfounded, While Units Yield 15% And Sell At A Discount - Pacific Coast Oil Trust (NYSE:ROYT) | Seeking Alpha
Here is an outstanding article on Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT). The company operates stable oil fields in California, but the stock price has been negatively impacted due to environmental concerns which will most likely not prevail against the company. Therefore, the 15% dividend which is distributed on a monthly basis is probably safe, and there will probably be a future capital gain as well. Moreover, since the stock market is mostly topped out, you will probably only make single digit returns in the future in a lot of stocks. ROYT is a great opportunity for a double-digit gain, and I plan to buy the stock very soon.
Here is an outstanding article on Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT). The company operates stable oil fields in California, but the stock price has been negatively impacted due to environmental concerns which will most likely not prevail against the company. Therefore, the 15% dividend which is distributed on a monthly basis is probably safe, and there will probably be a future capital gain as well. Moreover, since the stock market is mostly topped out, you will probably only make single digit returns in the future in a lot of stocks. ROYT is a great opportunity for a double-digit gain, and I plan to buy the stock very soon.
What We Can Learn From Margin Levels In The Stock Market | Seeking Alpha
What We Can Learn From Margin Levels In The Stock Market | Seeking Alpha
This is an interesting article about how margin calls affect the stock market. When the next bear market finally arrives, broker margin calls will cause an avalanche decline in the market. As the author noted, margin peaks can also predict an imminent bear market, and that is where we are now. People are leveraged to squeeze all they can out of small general stock market gains. Eventually, the gains will be so small that bonds will be more attractive, and then the market will fall as people sell stocks aggressively.
This is an interesting article about how margin calls affect the stock market. When the next bear market finally arrives, broker margin calls will cause an avalanche decline in the market. As the author noted, margin peaks can also predict an imminent bear market, and that is where we are now. People are leveraged to squeeze all they can out of small general stock market gains. Eventually, the gains will be so small that bonds will be more attractive, and then the market will fall as people sell stocks aggressively.
Thursday, August 21, 2014
The Not So Mysterious Lofty Stock Market Elevations | Seeking Alpha
The Not So Mysterious Lofty Stock Market Elevations | Seeking Alpha
Here is a balanced bullish article about how we don't need to panic, but we need to get used to single digit returns for stocks at the current elevated levels. When the ten-year treasury bond starts paying 4%, that will be a fairly certain sign of the top. By the time that situation occurs, the gain on stocks will probably be about 4% also, and bonds will be a lot safer. Investors are already starting to buy long term bonds. This can be seen in TLT and TMF which I own. Currently, stocks can still go up on low volume while bonds go up at the same time on low volume. The safest stock to own now is OEF, the S&P 100 ETF, and I own it also as well as dividend stocks.
Here is a balanced bullish article about how we don't need to panic, but we need to get used to single digit returns for stocks at the current elevated levels. When the ten-year treasury bond starts paying 4%, that will be a fairly certain sign of the top. By the time that situation occurs, the gain on stocks will probably be about 4% also, and bonds will be a lot safer. Investors are already starting to buy long term bonds. This can be seen in TLT and TMF which I own. Currently, stocks can still go up on low volume while bonds go up at the same time on low volume. The safest stock to own now is OEF, the S&P 100 ETF, and I own it also as well as dividend stocks.
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
The Bull Market In Equities Has A Long Way To Run | Seeking Alpha
The Bull Market In Equities Has A Long Way To Run | Seeking Alpha
As usual, the bulls are able to present evidence that stocks can continue to rise for quite a while. This article gives several reasons why the bull market will continue. I would only buy the best stocks on dips, though. I am currently around 75% long and 25% treasury bonds. With this mix, I have been able to advance on most days. I will continue to monitor both bull and bear cases and invest accordingly. We must take a certain amount of risk in order to accumulate significant wealth. Then, on the other hand, we need to protect our wealth as much as possible to prevent large losses.
As usual, the bulls are able to present evidence that stocks can continue to rise for quite a while. This article gives several reasons why the bull market will continue. I would only buy the best stocks on dips, though. I am currently around 75% long and 25% treasury bonds. With this mix, I have been able to advance on most days. I will continue to monitor both bull and bear cases and invest accordingly. We must take a certain amount of risk in order to accumulate significant wealth. Then, on the other hand, we need to protect our wealth as much as possible to prevent large losses.
Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha
This is a great article about being able to predict stock market tops when margin debt has topped out and is declining. The smart money usually knows when to get out of stocks. The author presented some very good charts which showed that a margin debt peak preceded the start of a bear market by a short period of time. A number of sources have talked about a recent decline in margin debt, but we don't know yet if margin debt is up again since global problems have currently subsided. Also, one other difference in 2014 is that the S&P 500 is still amazingly climbing. Stocks are not rolling over as they did at previous tops. So, we will need to continue to monitor margin debt, stock patterns, and other indicators to know when to head for the exits.
This is a great article about being able to predict stock market tops when margin debt has topped out and is declining. The smart money usually knows when to get out of stocks. The author presented some very good charts which showed that a margin debt peak preceded the start of a bear market by a short period of time. A number of sources have talked about a recent decline in margin debt, but we don't know yet if margin debt is up again since global problems have currently subsided. Also, one other difference in 2014 is that the S&P 500 is still amazingly climbing. Stocks are not rolling over as they did at previous tops. So, we will need to continue to monitor margin debt, stock patterns, and other indicators to know when to head for the exits.
Why Tesla Stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) Will Double in the Next 12 Months
Why Tesla Stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) Will Double in the Next 12 Months
Keith Fitz-Gerald has written an excellent article on why Tesla could double in the next 12 months. It was only last month that Tesla was around $220 per share, and it has gained $36 since then. Tesla's stock will continue to rise along with its car sales, battery charger installations, and its Gigafactory battery plant. Good news from each of these areas will push Tesla's price higher, and when they achieve their $35,000 electric car, the stock will go parabolic. Tesla is probably worth buying at any point around $256 per share or lower. The dips will probably be bought swiftly on Tesla, and your only mistake may be not getting in soon enough.
Keith Fitz-Gerald has written an excellent article on why Tesla could double in the next 12 months. It was only last month that Tesla was around $220 per share, and it has gained $36 since then. Tesla's stock will continue to rise along with its car sales, battery charger installations, and its Gigafactory battery plant. Good news from each of these areas will push Tesla's price higher, and when they achieve their $35,000 electric car, the stock will go parabolic. Tesla is probably worth buying at any point around $256 per share or lower. The dips will probably be bought swiftly on Tesla, and your only mistake may be not getting in soon enough.
Monday, August 18, 2014
A Weird All-Long Strategy | Seeking Alpha
A Weird All-Long Strategy | Seeking Alpha
Harry Long has written another very good article about how to make a lot of money in the stock market by being essentially long and short at the same time. The short component involves the 3x long-term bonds ETF called TMF at 45% of the portfolio with VXX, the volatility ETF, being 5%. The long component involves 50% SPXL, the 3x S&P 500 ETF. This portfolio would have gained more than 400% since April 2009, and this would have beaten the S&P 500 by almost 3 times.
Part of the strategy involves re-balancing weekly to maintain the proper ratios. For example, VXX can ruin you because of its constant decay, but if you take profits while you have them, the system could work. Also, XIV, the inverse volatility index is currently beating SPXL. So, you might make more money putting 50% of your money on XIV rather than SPXL. The 3x long S&P ETF has been meager in its profits lately, but it definitely worked well since 2009. Click on the chart below to expand it.
Harry Long has written another very good article about how to make a lot of money in the stock market by being essentially long and short at the same time. The short component involves the 3x long-term bonds ETF called TMF at 45% of the portfolio with VXX, the volatility ETF, being 5%. The long component involves 50% SPXL, the 3x S&P 500 ETF. This portfolio would have gained more than 400% since April 2009, and this would have beaten the S&P 500 by almost 3 times.
Part of the strategy involves re-balancing weekly to maintain the proper ratios. For example, VXX can ruin you because of its constant decay, but if you take profits while you have them, the system could work. Also, XIV, the inverse volatility index is currently beating SPXL. So, you might make more money putting 50% of your money on XIV rather than SPXL. The 3x long S&P ETF has been meager in its profits lately, but it definitely worked well since 2009. Click on the chart below to expand it.
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