Why 1976 Is Relevant On The S&P 500 Index | Seeking Alpha

Why 1976 Is Relevant On The S&P 500 Index | Seeking Alpha



Chris Ciovacco has written another great article about how to understand the stock market.  He did a very good job in explaining how Fibonacci retracement levels work.  Chris presented an excellent chart of the S&P 500 and how Fibonacci numbers relate to possible stock market rally points.  This matters significantly because trading computers make decisions often based on these numbers.



Currently SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, is at $199, and this is more than a 38% retracement between the recent S&P high compared to the October 2014 low.  Chris thinks the S&P could drop to the 50% mark which would be 1976.  Since the stock market cannot stop on a dime, it is possible we could have a rally from here since we are near the 38.2 % retracement level.  If the market does keep falling, we are also near the 50% level of the Fibonacci chart.  So, the odds are we will get a rebound very soon.



As the author mentioned, the economy is doing okay, and this means we are not headed for a bear market.  We will simply get corrections.  This means that we can reliably buy at various Fibonacci retracement points because the market is not falling apart, and big institutions will most likely be buying stocks based on the Fibonacci numbers.  So, we should be willing to buy stocks under the current conditions.  However, profits should be taken when the Dow gets near 18,000 again because the economy is only mediocre, and the Dow will have trouble blasting past 18,000.

   

The Media Is Dead Wrong About Oil Supply And Demand | Seeking Alpha

The Media Is Dead Wrong About Oil Supply And Demand | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about the true state of oil supply and demand.  Contrary to what you may have heard, the demand for oil is not declining overall.  It is rising in a healthy way.  Therefore, the excess oil inventory is just temporary, and the stoppage in oil drilling will soon create shortfall in supply.  This situation will create a massive spike in the price of oil, but it will take a while for the oil drillers to get back online.  So, the bottom price for oil has probably already been made.



The author cited OPEC statistics to back up the fact that oil demand is not declining.  Demand has also been increasing quarter over quarter.  REX Energy (REXX) is one oil company I bought near the bottom.  It is currently 50% up from the bottom price of January.  I am doubling my position on Monday morning because REXX can still rise 100% or more from its current price.

 

One Month in, 2015 Already Looks Like Trouble for Markets

One Month in, 2015 Already Looks Like Trouble for Markets



Here is an excellent summary of the bad news that is keeping the stock market down.  Moreover, it will probably get worse before it gets better.  We may struggle just to get back to 18,000 on the Dow much less bursting through that level.  Bad signs in durable goods could point to a possible recession scare.  Layoffs in oil companies will also upset the unemployment picture that had become rosy until now.



In addition, government bonds are showing a flight to safety which we usually only see to this extent in bear markets.  Corporate earnings are not good enough, and central bankers are falling short on expectations.  The author recommends long bets on volatility stocks or raising cash levels.  I agree with both of these ideas.  However, my favorite solution is piling more money on TMF, the 3x long government bond ETF.  People are scared, and TMF has gained more than 100% in the past 12 months!

Stocks Bounce Back on Yellen's Assurances

Stocks Bounce Back on Yellen's Assurances



This is a good article about the treacherous state of the stock market.  We had a good rebound in stocks on Thursday, but we are still a long distance away from the Dow getting back to 18,000.  The author gave charts of the S&P 500 as well as talking about the S&P bullish percent chart which looks worse than the S&P itself since it has a clear downtrend.  We definitely need to be defensive in the market.  I have been trading in and out of UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, but I must take profits quickly on each rebound or I will end up losing money since the upward advance of the Dow past 18,000 is off the table right now.

If oil drops below $30 a barrel, brace for a global recession

If oil drops below $30 a barrel, brace for a global recession



Here is a very good article discussing the current oil price along with thoughts about what might happen in the future.  One OPEC minister felt that the $46 oil price we have now is the approximate bottom, and oil will rebound in the future.  Others warned that if oil drops to the $30 range, we will have a global recession.  Over 80% believe that the price of oil will go higher although only 42% expect the price of oil to be in the $60-$80 range by the end of 2015.



Since no one can guess the exact bottom, I believe we are close enough to load up on some oil stocks.  I have bought Vantage Drilling (VTG) and Rex Energy (REXX).  I will also be closely monitoring these stocks and the price of oil in order to buy more shares in the future.  We are living in interesting times, and I am willing to hang on for a while because I believe select oil company bargains will outperform the market in the next year.





   

10 oil stocks that may eventually stage the biggest rebound - MarketWatch

10 oil stocks that may eventually stage the biggest rebound - MarketWatch



This is a link to an outstanding article about 10 oil stocks that are great bargains for the eventual oil rebound.  Rex Energy (REXX) is one stock that I am familiar with, and I will probably buy a position in REXX tomorrow.  I may be a little too soon, but I am expecting more than 100% in return during the next two years.  I will probably take a second position when I think we are close to the bottom in the price of oil.  Rebound stocks can be top gainers in a late bull market like I believe we are experiencing.

Warning Signs

Warning Signs



This is a very good article about why stocks are on shaky ground now.  You may have noticed that the Dow has struggled three times recently around the 18,000 mark.  This triple top formation is bearish although I think the market will eventually go higher.  I have been making money buying UDOW at low points and selling at high points.



The author in this article brought up similar points about the S&P 500.  Then, he showed an outstanding chart of $VIX, the volatility index, where it looks like smooth sailing times have ended, and volatility will reign again in the stock market.  He mentioned that this chart reversal has only occurred at stock market tops.  The author also gave other reasons why we need to be ready to cash out of stocks if conditions get worse.

Baker Hughes | BakerHughes.com

Baker Hughes | BakerHughes.com



Here is a link to Baker Hughes website so that you can stay in touch with what is happening in the world of oil drilling.  Just scroll down the main page to get a link for the latest monthly oil rig count.  As I mentioned in my previous blog, I believe along with Boone Pickens that low oil rig counts equal bottoms in the price of oil.  So, we need to stay up with the latest rig count news from Baker Hughes in order to invest in oil companies and ETFs at the right time to make money.

Billionaire Oilman Gives a Clue on When Oil Prices Will Bottom

Billionaire Oilman Gives a Clue on When Oil Prices Will Bottom



This is an outstanding article where Boone Pickens gives us an idea about when the price of oil will bottom.  The article also included a chart comparing oil prices to rig counts.  Pickens believes the bottom will occur when 500-600 rigs have been idled, and we are about one third there now.  Baker Hughes would be a good company to follow for knowing where we are in rig counts.  I plan to be watching the bottom myself because 50-100% returns could happen through buying into the right oil stocks at the right time.

The Bond Market is Warning of Huge Trouble Ahead

The Bond Market is Warning of Huge Trouble Ahead



Here is an interesting article about the bond market presenting a scary picture of where the economy is heading.  This is in great contrast to the numbers and predictions of the Federal Reserve concerning the economy.  Who is right?



The only winners in the current situation are those who can trade in and out based on the stock market volatility.  We have been down five days in a row for the market, and the odds are almost certain for a three or four day rebound.  I bought UDOW near the low, and I plan to sell it whenever the rebound occurs.  This pattern may also occur many times in 2015 if the bond market is right.



 

UDOW Is The Trade Of 2015

We have experienced high volatility in the stock market for the last several months, and I firmly believe this scenario will continue until the price of oil stabilizes.  2015 shows expectations of low oil prices all year long.  This will translate into market uncertainty even if the rest of the world is calm.

During the past four months, I have made money on UDOW three times, and I expect this trend to continue.  We are having extreme volatility on a daily basis and a weekly basis.  UDOW can easily move more than $5 per share in a day's time, and I only need a movement of $10 per share to make the trade worthwhile for me.

My last trade on UDOW was completed in a week's time, and I have a buy order for UDOW again for $131.62 good until canceled.  Then, after I get the shares, I plan to enter a sell order good until canceled for $142.62 for a profit of $11 per share.  Volatility is the trader's dream.  When this trading range quits working, I will find the next range as long as the basic trend of the stock market is up.  Only a bear market or low volatility will cause this trade to fail, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.  So, 2015 is the year for UDOW. 

Today's Oil Prices Spell Profit for These Energy Players

Today's Oil Prices Spell Profit for These Energy Players



There is a silver lining in low oil prices in addition to great gasoline prices in the U.S.  As this excellent article mentions, we have been exporting refined oil products like gasoline for many years.  As a result of the low price of oil now, the refiners spread margins will be fantastic for the next few years since high oil prices will not be returning anytime soon.



This is actually good for oil companies and refiners because refineries could buy up the excess oil in America.  Then, the refiners could produce more products for export.  Valero (VLO) and other refiners might be good investments now.  UGAZ and UGA are ETFs which may be worth buying also.  We are definitely living in interesting times.

Hello, Volatility! Goodbye, Stock Gains

Hello, Volatility! Goodbye, Stock Gains



Here is another great stock market and oil update.  One of OPEC's oil ministers said it could take up to three years for the price of oil to stabilize.  So, between oil and other economic factors, we will be in for a volatile ride for a long time.  I quickly sold my UDOW (3x Dow) position for a good profit when the market was up over 200 points in the morning.



However, to my amazement, the Dow was down over -160 points during the afternoon and ended the day slightly down.  This is an example of where you must quickly take your profits when you have them because conditions in the market are changing so fast.  The people who will make money in today's market are those who are able to figure out where the moving bottoms are.  $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, can help in this respect.  Then, sell when you are at an intermediate top.

 

Update: What Record Mobile User Growth Means For MeetMe - MeetMe, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEET) | Seeking Alpha

Update: What Record Mobile User Growth Means For MeetMe - MeetMe, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEET) | Seeking Alpha



Here is an excellent article on MeetMe and why it is a good speculative buy.  The stock closed at less than $1.50 per share, but I believe the stock achieved the bottom when it dropped to $1.39 per share and bounced off with a high volume surge.  I have a limit order to buy MEET for $1.45 on Monday morning.



The author did a great job in covering the fact that MeetMe is growing their revenues.  I am also a member of MeetMe myself.  It is a great way to meet people based initially on their photos.  It can serve some people as a free dating website or for finding lost friends.  I think the company has a very good chance for success.

The Intel Compute Stick Is Perfect For Home And Office Computing - Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) | Seeking Alpha

The Intel Compute Stick Is Perfect For Home And Office Computing - Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) | Seeking Alpha



This is an outstanding article about an Intel Compute Stick which will be available soon.  The operating system is built into the 4 inch USB stick for ease of use with any computer.  The price is only $150, and I plan to get one when they are available.  You can have Windows or Linux for the firmware.  It will probably operate like a dual boot system depending on whether you want to work on the main computer or the USB stick.  I already have a dual boot system on my current desktop computer where I am asked at startup which operating system I want to use.

Why OPEC Is Talking Oil Down, Not Up, After 48% Selloff

Why OPEC Is Talking Oil Down, Not Up, After 48% Selloff



This is another critical article about the great oversupply of oil.  I sold my ERX energy ETF today for a small loss of around $20 because there is no sign for the bottom in the price of oil.  Moreover, we could stay for months on the bottom before the surplus oil is sold.



OPEC is actually hurting themselves with the lower price of oil, but they know the surplus has to be depleted.  The bottom line is that oil stocks should be avoided for the next several months although I do hold a couple of oil dividend stocks, ROYT and PBT.  My biggest holding is UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, which I bought near the recent bottom.  I plan to take my profit when the Dow eventually gets around 18,000 again.

Why a Booming Job Market Hasn't Led to a Booming Housing Market

Why a Booming Job Market Hasn't Led to a Booming Housing Market



This is a very good article on why the housing market is not booming.  Credit is certainly not as easy as it was back in 2005-2006 when just about anyone who wanted a house could get one.  Now, you have to jump through hoops to get a house because the banks have much greater qualifications.  Also, as the article mentioned, the younger generation is in no hurry to get married, and they need to make more money to be able to buy a house.  So, be careful if you decide to take chances on housing stocks because your money might be dead for a while or worse.

Savings Calculator - PeoplesChoice Credit Union | Biddeford, Saco, Sanford, Wells, Maine

Savings Calculator - PeoplesChoice Credit Union | Biddeford, Saco, Sanford, Wells, Maine



Here is an excellent website for calculating gains on your investments.  For example, a lot of people want to know what the future holds.  You also need to be planning for a secure future.  By using the People's Choice Credit Union dividend calculator at the top the the web page, you can get an idea of your future savings amount.



For example, if you want to use the dividend calculator as a capital gain calculator, you can estimate how much money you will make from your best stocks in a certain number of years.  If you invest $10,000 in a stock that is gaining 20% per year for a period of 4 years, you will double your money over that time.  All you have to do is enter the initial dollar amount in the calculator, the expected dividend or return, and the number of years.  Then, click on the dividends earned box for the result.



You can speculate on all sorts of scenarios with the calculator.  For example, if you invest $50,000 in stocks that gain an average of 20% per year over 10 years, you will have $309,586 in just 10 years.  If you invest $100,000 and you make a return of 35% over 10 years, you will have $2 million after this period.  This is the way to plan for retirement.  You must invest in the best stocks and then calculate the money you will earn under different percent return scenarios.  In this way, you will be planning rather than just guessing at what your future might hold.

Bears Growl At Bonds And Energy, So Buy Both | Seeking Alpha

Bears Growl At Bonds And Energy, So Buy Both | Seeking Alpha



Gary Gordon has written a great article about safe stocks to own in today's volatile environment.  First, investors here and abroad will probably be buying safe U.S. treasuries all year long just as they did in 2014.  Gary talked about some of his picks in this area.  I like TMF myself, the 3x long-bond ETF.  I have a core position, and I trade in and out of the stock during the market up/down cycles.  I recently made over 10% on a TMF trade, and I expect to have several trades like that this year.



On the other hand, I also invest long on some stocks which I think will make double digit returns regardless of how volatile the market behaves in 2015.  One of these stocks is VNQ, Vanguard's REIT ETF, which is primarily invested in commercial REIT stocks.  I bought the stock in the past month when I saw that it made a double-digit return in 2014, and I believe it will make 20% or more again this year as the economy and businesses continue to improve in 2015.



A second stock that I bought today is USMV, the iShares USA Minimum Volatility ETF.  Gary showed a chart of USMV where it gained around 22% in the past year.  I believe the stock can gain another 20% this year, and this is the type of stock that can make a person rich over time.  For example, if you make 20% per year on a stock for just 4 years, you will double your money over that period.

Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention | Seeking Alpha

Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention | Seeking Alpha



Richard Zeits has written an excellent article on the current state on many popular oil and gas companies.  The list of good oil companies that are now on sale is very extensive.  The only questions are knowing where the bottom is in the price of oil and when to buy.  As Richard suggested, probably all of the oil companies will rise when the decline is fully realized. 

Why Oil Prices Are Headed Below $35 a Barrel

Why Oil Prices Are Headed Below $35 a Barrel



This is an interesting article about oil prices and where the break-even cutoff points are for countries like Saudi Arabia, the U.S., Canada, and Brazil.  We currently don't have enough worldwide demand to soak up the excess supply.  There is no telling how low the price of oil will go or how long it will stay low.  Under these circumstances, holding oil companies now could be disappointing.

Is 2015 The Year You Buy A Chromebook?

Is 2015 The Year You Buy A Chromebook?



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  The above link is for an outstanding article on Chromebook computers.  I own a Chromebook myself which I got for around $250.  It is very light weight, and it automatically connects wirelessly with Google's Chrome browser internet domain.



If you have the internet at home, you may need a wireless router for using a Chromebook because the Samsung model that I own does not have a traditional Ethernet port.  Google makes it easy to get on the internet through a router, though.  Then, of course, Chromebook will connect well in wireless places like restaurants and motels.



Not only is the price low for a Chromebook, but the operating system resides in the cloud of the internet.  You don't have to worry about your Windows operating system crashing because a Chromebook connects to Google's Chrome operating system on the internet which is maintained 24/7 reliably.  The Chrome OS is also free, and you don't have to involve yourself with Windows multiple updates and other problems.



The downside for some is not being able to run Windows software.  This is not a problem for me because I have been using Google's cloud software for a long time which includes word processing, spreadsheets, bookmarks, and all the other office applications that you would expect.  If you need to go from one operating system to another, you can create PDF files to transfer data.  So, I am completely sold on Chromebooks!

 

Why Economists Fear 'Nightmare' Deflation From Cheaper Oil

Why Economists Fear 'Nightmare' Deflation From Cheaper Oil



Here is a very good primer article which explains why deflation is bad.  People are glad now about low gasoline prices at the pump, but things are not as good as they look.  Deflation will lead to higher unemployment because people will not buy big ticket items, and this will lead to layoffs in durable goods companies.  Lower oil prices will bring about layoffs in the oil industry.  This in turn will result in less people holding up the economy by buying things.



This situation is also why many people here and abroad are loading up on long term government bonds.  Stocks like TLT, the long-term government bond ETF,  and TMF can help you make money in this trend.  For example, concerning TLT, you will get paid a small amount of interest each month, and you will probably have a double-digit capital gain like what happened in 2014.  TMF, the 3x long-term bond ETF, will not pay much interest, but you will get a larger capital gain.

Bill Gross Thinks 2015 Is The Year It All Falls Apart

Bill Gross Thinks 2015 Is The Year It All Falls Apart



This is a great article about the predictions for 2015 by Bill Gross, the bond king.  He talked about negative returns in a lot of asset classes, and he implied there will be a lot of volatility in the stock market this year.  I agree with Bill 100%.  Just a few months ago he was predicting 2-4% bond returns and 5-6% stock returns over the next seven years.



What this means is that you will make more money in trading stocks during market volatility than you will make otherwise.  We will probably have several 5-10% pullbacks this year, and if you can make 5% during each of those pullbacks, you will probably make 25% or more for your money this year.



I sold part of my TMF long-term treasuries position yesterday for $97 per share when it looked like the market was rebounding off the bottom, and I made more than 10% for my money on the trade.  Then, I bought UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, to ride the stock market up to 18,000 on the Dow again.  Once we get close to the former Dow high, I will load up on TMF again for another down cycle.  2015 will not be a straight up year like 2013.  Those days are gone, and volatility will be hanging around for the next few years probably.

 

Crude Oil: 3 Graphs That May Hold The Key To The Price Collapse - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha

Crude Oil: 3 Graphs That May Hold The Key To The Price Collapse - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a very interesting article which gives details on the current oversupply problem with oil.  The author shows that the situation will not be quickly resolved either.  So, we are left with the probability that oil could be stuck in a range between $45 to $55 for several months.  It was only three weeks ago on December 13 when oil futures were in the $60 to $65 range for 2015.  Now, we have a quote of only $55 in December of 2015 at the CME Group website.  How quickly things can change!

Stream ESPN and CNN online - without cable! | Komando.com

Stream ESPN and CNN online - without cable! | Komando.com



Here is another article which talks about something other than the stock market.  Kim Komando talks about Dish Network streaming ESPN and CNN to your computer and bypassing an expensive full-service cable bill.  The Sling TV offering only cost $20 per month and has no long-term obligation.  Major broadcast networks like ABC and NBC are not included, but you can get those with an HD antenna.  So, signing up for Sling TV could enable you to watch sports on ESPN for less than it would cost you for similar cable service.

 

Stock Market Today: Unexpected Last-Minute Bounce For Stocks Though Oil Rout Continues - TheStreet

Stock Market Today: Unexpected Last-Minute Bounce For Stocks Though Oil Rout Continues - TheStreet



This is an excellent report from The Street for the 2nd day of big stock market declines which are blamed mostly on the fall of oil prices.  The Dow looked like it was in full recovery mode around 3 p.m. but the market fell back again toward the last.  I was so confident in the recovery that I bought UDOW, the 3x Dow ETF, for part of my portfolio.



I believe we will probably have a good up-day tomorrow.  Some people were probably selling into the 3 p.m. rally, and that is most likely one reason that the rebound did not hold.  $NYMO is at -38.93, and there is a good chance we will have a full reversal soon even if it only lasts a week or two.  I bought UDOW early, but I believe I will still be able to make a profit in the next two weeks because the economy is doing okay.  Stocks will always eventually rise when we have a stable economy and the weak hands have been flushed out of the market.

  

Jeff Gundlach On Treasury Bonds, Nov 24 - Business Insider

Jeff Gundlach On Treasury Bonds, Nov 24 - Business Insider



This is an outstanding article about why long-term treasury bond ETFs will be safe this year, and they will most likely also outperform the S&P 500 in 2015 just like they did in 2014.  I am talking about TLT and TMF (3x TLT).  In fact, TMF is my largest holding although I am trading in and out of it around a core position. 



The world is a troubled place, and people can safely make more in long-term U.S. bonds than they can make in other places.  As long as fear exists in the market, bonds will be favored over stocks even if they are overvalued.  I will exit part of my TMF position when the stock market has fallen a little further.  When I look for a bottom in stocks, I turn to $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator.  When $NYMO drops to around -75 or greater, there is an overwhelming chance for a stock market rebound.  Then, I sell part of my TMF and buy UDOW, 3x Dow, to ride the market back up until the next down cycle begins.

  

What Crude Oil Prices in the $40s Means for Consumers and Companies - 24/7 Wall St.

What Crude Oil Prices in the $40s Means for Consumers and Companies - 24/7 Wall St.



Here is a very good article at 24/7 concerning the effect of lower oil prices.  U.S. oil companies will certainly cut back to survive any extended downturn in prices.  Supposedly, airlines and truckers should benefit from lower oil, but there are limitations here.  For example, if you look at a chart of Delta Air Lines (DAL), their stock price is currently falling like a rock along with the stock market in general.



So, things are not acting like you think they should.  If the stock market falls far enough, jobs will be lost, and this will cause a further decline in the market.  On the other hand, as the article mentions, there is a possibility of the price of oil quickly returning to $85 per barrel by the end of 2015 if supply gets too low.  ERX, the 3x energy stock, is the way to invest in oil's recovery although the bottom for oil is unknown.  You might initially lose money on ERX before you get it all back along with a handsome profit.

423-400-3 Free Lookup Reverse Numbers

423-400-3 Free Lookup Reverse Numbers



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market.  The above link is for a supposedly free phone number identification lookup.  Even though the service is ultimately not free, the phone number lookup will pinpoint the exact area of a town where the phone number originated.  In this way, you can tell by the phone's location if it is someone you know or someone else like a sales person or company.  So, the free aspect of this service will at least give you an idea about whether or not you need to return the call.

Contango Is Working Against U.S. Oil ETF Investors - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha

Contango Is Working Against U.S. Oil ETF Investors - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a good article about the current and possible future situation for oil.  Nobody really knows how low the price of oil will fall, and there are differences of opinion on what kind of recovery oil will have.  I do agree with the author that there will not be a V-shaped return in the price of oil.



However, I think money can still be made from the current level.  I firmly believe that oil will make it back to the mid $60 range in several months or less.  Some hedge fund speculators agree with me.  So, I entered a trade with ERX, the 3x long energy ETF today.  I saw that ERX had dropped almost $8 per share by around noon.  That was too good to pass up. 



I bought ERX at $53 and change, and I plan to hold the stock until it gets back to $61 again.  The stock has already traversed this oversold path before when it dropped to $46 in December and quickly climbed back $61.  This trade is definitely worth a small part of my portfolio money.  I will make 15% on this trade in probably 30 days or less.  Then, I will try to find the next 10-15% trade although I don't know when it will happen or what stock it will be.

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop After S&P 500 Posts Weekly Decline

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop After S&P 500 Posts Weekly Decline



This is a very good article about increasing volatility in the stock market and predictions of reduced future gains in the market.  After a 30% gain for stocks in 2013, the S&P 500 dropped to 11% for 2014, and only 8% is the expected gain for  2015.  You will most likely make more money through buying pullbacks and then selling the stocks when the market gets back to where it was.  If you are able to do this several times through the year, you will have a double-digit gain instead of just 8%.



The way I plan to do this is by monitoring pullback percentages and looking at $NYMO, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator.  We will not be able to guess the exact bottoms or tops, but a decline of 5% or more in the S&P 500 and a $NYMO value of -55 or lower will most likely be close to a tradeable bottom.  Then, when the market goes up 6% or more from the bottom, take your profits while you have them.

DAL Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

DAL Interactive Stock Chart | Yahoo! Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance



Here is a chart of Delta Air Lines stock gain of 33% over the past few months.  Whenever the price of oil goes down, DAL is one of the best investments for your money since the airlines will make plenty of money with cheap jet fuel.  The only questions are how low will oil go and how long will the price of oil stay less than $65 per barrel?  Anyway, this is a trade to remember, and you could take a profit of 33% right now to seal the deal.

11 Benefits of Ginger That You Didn't Know About

11 Benefits of Ginger That You Didn't Know About



As I occasionally do, I will talk about subjects other than the stock market which I believe are worthwhile.  The link above is for a web page which talks about the benefits of ginger.  You can easily mix ginger powder with tea especially if you are brewing the tea in a coffee maker.  You can also buy liquid ginger extracts from health food stores, and you can mix the extract with juices.



Ginger reportedly destroys ovarian cancer cells, and it can probably prevent other types of cancer.  It is a natural expectorant and anti-bacterial substance.  It helps against colds and flu.  It also improves circulation and inhibits fatty deposits from building up in arteries.  I have taken ginger many times in the past, and I plan to resume my consumption of ginger on a regular basis due to its many benefits.

Oil Doomsayers Were Wrong In 2009: 4 Reasons Why They Are Wrong Now | Seeking Alpha

Oil Doomsayers Were Wrong In 2009: 4 Reasons Why They Are Wrong Now | Seeking Alpha



This is a great article on the other side of the oil coin which says that oil prices will quickly recover.  The author presented news that was different from what we have been hearing.  Saudi Arabia could possibly reverse its rhetoric.



The article also showed a chart of oversold conditions on oil, and the graph also demonstrated that the price of oil recovers quickly from such scenarios.  ERX, the 3x oil ETF, has already recovered from its low of $46 to $61 on Friday.  The worst may indeed be over.



Moreover, two stocks that the author mentioned, MDR and WG, are already off their lows and rising.  I am buying MDR Monday morning.  So, it might be wise to allocate some money to stocks that will rise when oil rebounds.

Gundlach: Bull market for Treasurys to continue - DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund Inst (MUTF:DBLTX) | Seeking Alpha

Gundlach: Bull market for Treasurys to continue - DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund Inst (MUTF:DBLTX) | Seeking Alpha



Here is a short article about why U.S. treasuries will continue to beat the market.  There is still a lot of fear and economic trouble in the world even while the U.S. economy is doing well.  This means that long bond stocks like TLT and TMF (3x TLT) will do well in 2015 just as they did in 2014.  In fact, TMF is my largest holding although I occasionally take profits and leave a core position in place.



There will be times in the new year when the stock market will be temporarily bullish, but declines will certainly follow.  TMF is my biggest trade during declines, and UDOW (3x Dow) is what I buy at market bottoms.  Then, after the market hits a top, I take profits on UDOW and wait for the next cycle to happen.

Here are the reasons oil is plunging toward $50

Here are the reasons oil is plunging toward $50



This is an update on where we are on the price of oil for now and the foreseeable future.  New supply is coming online from northern Iraq and Libya on top of a supply glut that was already present.  Saudi Arabia is prepared to let oil fall to $20 per barrel although it most likely won't fall that far.



In addition, we are having weaker oil demand during the winter, and electric cars are finally make a dent in the gasoline monopoly.  China and Europe have lower demand for oil also.  A stronger dollar equals lower oil prices because more oil can be bought for each dollar.  A weak dollar would result in higher oil prices.

Could 2015 herald a 'New Oil Order'?

Could 2015 herald a 'New Oil Order'?



This is a very interesting article about the current and future scenario of oil.  We have experienced low demand for oil in December at a time when supply has been high in spite of the dropping price of oil.  Moreover, demand will probably remain low for several more months until May when demand will rise for the summer driving season.



With these facts in mind, the price of oil will probably remain in the $50-$64 range for at least several months.  I doubt we will ever see $40 oil like some predict because this would tear apart the OPEC cartel as the article mentioned.  Only Saudi Arabia can output oil at a $40 price, and OPEC members would revolt in that situation.  I have noticed a trading range of $102 to $114 with Chevron, and there may be several opportunities for 10% trades in CVX or RDSA in the next several months as prices remain volatile.