Friday, January 30, 2015

One Month in, 2015 Already Looks Like Trouble for Markets

One Month in, 2015 Already Looks Like Trouble for Markets



Here is an excellent summary of the bad news that is keeping the stock market down.  Moreover, it will probably get worse before it gets better.  We may struggle just to get back to 18,000 on the Dow much less bursting through that level.  Bad signs in durable goods could point to a possible recession scare.  Layoffs in oil companies will also upset the unemployment picture that had become rosy until now.



In addition, government bonds are showing a flight to safety which we usually only see to this extent in bear markets.  Corporate earnings are not good enough, and central bankers are falling short on expectations.  The author recommends long bets on volatility stocks or raising cash levels.  I agree with both of these ideas.  However, my favorite solution is piling more money on TMF, the 3x long government bond ETF.  People are scared, and TMF has gained more than 100% in the past 12 months!

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