Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Short seller who called financial crisis sees calamity ahead

Short seller who called financial crisis sees calamity ahead



Here is a very good bearish article on stocks.  Bill Fleckenstein is a highly respected short seller who thinks the stock market is about to fall.  He was right between 2007 and 2009.  However, one big difference at the last market top was that interest rates were much higher than they are today.  I think we still have room to run until the 10-year bond gets to around 4% interest.  At that point, both businesses and individuals will lose borrowing power, and that will lead to a recession which will also bring down stocks.



Fleckenstein is probably right about a significant correction, though.  Moreover, it will also be hard to tell where the bottom is once the decline begins in earnest.  One way to play a pullback is to buy something like TQQQ once $NYMO is -65 or more negative.  There will probably be a tradeable bounce then before the next leg down.  Be sure you sell when $NYMO goes positive, and wait in cash until the next tradeable bottom.  The chart below shows what I am talking about.  Click on the picture to expand it.





  

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